NFL Week 18 Trends, Odds, Most Popular Bets and Public Splits

The final week of the NFL’s regular season is upon us. For some teams, playoff spots and home-field advantage in the postseason are on the line while others will see their players clean out their lockers in preparation for the NFL offseason. Even after Week 18 there’s still a month left of NFL action to bet on, but this weekend is the last time bettors will have all 32 teams in 16 matchups.

The betting insights and public splits from DraftKings Sportsbook can often paint an interesting picture:

What’s the most popular bet in Week 18?

Is a certain team or bet getting an unusual amount of action?

Is that team or bet getting a lot of wagers but a low amount of dollars?

Is the public overconfident in a particular matchup?

All of these questions can be answered with public betting splits. Below you’ll find the Week 18 splits from DraftKings and also a highlight of some of the big disparities. Whether it’s handle, bet percentage, spread, moneyline, or over/under. The analysis you need to be a better bettor in Week 18 is all below.

High Bet and Handle Percentage:

When the amount of bets is close or similar to the amount wagered on that particular bet, it’s a good sign of cohesiveness among bettors. The following games have an unusually high bet percentage in a particular market but the handle on those bets is in the same range:

Chiefs vs. Raiders: Kansas City on the Moneyline (-425): 85% of bets, 76% of handle

Patriots vs. Bills: Buffalo on the Moneyline (-315): 87% of bets, 70% of handle

Ravens vs. Bengals: Cincinnati on the Moneyline (-475): 87% of bets,79% of handle

Vikings vs. Bears: Minnesota on the Moneyline (-365): 88% of bets, 86% of handle

Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Tampa Bay +4: 79% of bets, 72% of handle

Cowboys vs. Commanders: Dallas on the Moneyline (-320) 90% of bets, 88% of handle:

Cowboys vs. Commanders: Dallas -7: 82% of bets, 75% of handle

High Bet Percentage With Low Handle:

When this situation occurs, it indicates the Sportsbook has a lot of printed tickets on a particular bet, but the amount placed on those wagers is either inversed or has a large disparity. In other words, the bet may be popular, but the dollars/amount indicates a low level of confidence.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Tampa Bay on the Moneyline (+4): 82% of bets but only 57% of the handle.

Chargers vs. Broncos: Los Angeles +3: 77% of bets but only 41% of the handle.

Giants vs. Eagles: New York +14: 86% of bets but only 70% of the handle.

49ers vs. Cardinals: San Francisco on the Moneyline (-975): 90% of bets but only 68% of the handle.

Bettors can use this information to their advantage. If you see the conviction in a play with a high bet percentage that is backed up with a high betting handle (dollars wagered for that particular bet), then it’s a good sign. But if bettors see a big disparity between the handle and bet percentages, that’s an opportunity to fade the public or popular bets and “follow the money.”

There’s a bit of a misnomer when it comes to the action in Week 18, some claim the teams without any shot to make the playoffs are in “meaningless” games. But every game has some meaning, whether it’s for the franchise, a coach, or a player. For example, the Rams are eliminated from the playoffs and play the Seahawks who are battling for the final wild-card spot in the NFC. While Los Angeles doesn’t have any postseason hopes, the game certainly means something for quarterback Baker Mayfield who is trying to earn a starting job in Los Angeles or elsewhere in 2023. Plus the Rams don’t want to be the ladder that helps their NFC West division rivals get into the playoffs.