Week 15 Player Prop Bets and Odds: Bettors Need to Exploit Soft Defenses

Week 15 features a jammed packed weekend of NFL action. We already saw a game on Thursday night between the 49ers and Seahawks, we’ll get three more games on Saturday, a full slate of games on Sunday, and then cap it all off with a Monday night matchup.

Instead of pouring over against the spread trends and stats, for this article we have our eyes on a few key NFL playmakers who are projected to produce above and beyond their yardage total on the sportsbooks. Using Sports Illustrated’s player prop shop and player projections, we can easily identify disparities between the betting total and the statistical projections. Here’s a handful of glaring differences that we want to exploit for our player prop bets.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: Over 301.5 passing yards

If you check out Herbert’s game log, you’ll quickly notice he has back-to-back games of more than 300 yards through the air. That feat comes after throwing for that many in just two of his previous 11 games. So why should you bet for him to hit that 300-yard threshold for the third game in a row? Two factors come into play: 1. Superstar wide receiver Mike Williams is healthy and back in the lineup. His big-play ability is a major boost to Herbert’s downfield arsenal, as evident in his 116 receiving yards in Week 14. 2. The Chargers' Week 15 opponents are the Titans who have allowed 3,906 passing yards this season, that’s the second most in the entire league. Tennessee has allowed quarterbacks to throw for 300-plus yards in seven of its 13 games including in back-to-back weeks. Look for the Chargers and Herbert to come out firing as they continue to fight for a playoff berth in the AFC.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers: Over 71.5 receiving yards

If we like the quarterback we have to like his top receiver as well. For all the reasons mentioned above regarding the expectation for Herbert to throw a lot of yards, we are expecting at least 23 percent of that production to go to the Chargers' best pass catcher. Allen has gone over this mark in three of his last four games including in each of the last two. We already noted the Titans give up the most passing yards in the league and they give up the third-most yards to wide receivers as well. Eight wide receivers have gone over the 71.5-yard threshold against the Titans in their last six games, including wide receivers in five straight outings. Bettors can double-dip on Tennessee’s vulnerability through the air by packaging an over bet on Herbert and Allen’s yardage total in a same-game parlay.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Over 68.5 rushing yards

The Vikings running back is just 50 yards share of what will become his fourth straight 1,000-yard campaign. Cook has had a bit of an up-and-down season, rushing for 23 yards in Week 14 but 86 in Week 13, that roller coaster of production has made it hard for bettors to trust Cook to exceed his yardage prop. So why are we on him this week? Simple… his game against the Colts is one of the best matchups for any running back. Indianapolis has allowed the ninth-most (1,299) yards to opposing rushers. In the last three weeks, they have jumped from ninth to No. 6 in rushing yards allowed (328) and that’s in spite of playing one less game than the rest of the defenses ranked lower than them. Look for Cook to get rolling at home against this weak Indianapolis run defense.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys: Over 41.5 receiving yards

The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the NFL heading into Week 15; only the Bengals and 49ers have longer active win streaks. While the Jaguars' defense struggles in a few key areas, one position they have the most trouble with is tight end. This season, tight ends have produced 819 yards against Jacksonville, the fourth most in the league. It gets even worse when looking at the last five weeks as the Jaguars have allowed the most yards to the position (375) during that stretch, more than 100 yards compared to the next closest team. Schultz is coming off his most productive yardage game of the season (87 yards vs. Texans) and has gone over this 41.5 total five times in 2022. We have no problem banking on Dak Prescott exploiting this matchup and peppering one of his top targets with passes.