Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction: AFC West Rivals Kick Week Off Week 2 on Thursday Night Football

Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes go head-to-head again for early control of the division.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Sep 13, 2022

After missing the playoffs last season, the Los Angeles Chargers can point to one game in December that would have changed everything: a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.

At the time, the Chiefs held a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West. A win by Los Angeles would have given them control of the division through a season sweep of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid, and Co. They took a 14-13 lead into the fourth quarter and held a 28-21 edge with 2:19 left to play.

That's when Mahomes reminded everyone why he's a perennial MVP favorite. He went 75 yards in just over a minute, including a highlight-reel 32-yard run that left the Chargers' defense on their heels. Just like that, the game was tied; the Chiefs would wind up winning the coin toss and marched to victory in overtime, 34-28, similar to how they shocked the Bills in an AFC Divisional Playoff game one month later.

Now both teams battle for control of the division once again, this time on "Thursday Night Football" after starting the season 1-0.

The Chiefs came out swinging to start 2022, a 44-21 thumping of the Arizona Cardinals in which Mahomes threw three touchdown passes in his first three possessions. He ended the first week leading the league in virtually every major passing category: yards (360), touchdowns (5), and passer rating (144.2).

Herbert and the Chargers faced a stiffer test, obtaining revenge on another late-season opponent, the Raiders, that snuffed out their postseason chances. However, the 24-19 game remained in doubt until a Khalil Mack strip-sack of David Carr on the Raiders' final drive.

Mack had a phenomenal Chargers debut, posting three sacks, four quarterback hits, and a forced fumble. But can the linebacker and his defensive unit penetrate a Chiefs offensive line that didn't allow a single sack in Week 1?

They'll try and repeat that performance in Arrowhead Stadium as the Chargers meet one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL head-on. In fact, two of the Chiefs' four losses there in the last two seasons have come at the hands of the Chargers.

Can L.A. waltz in and hand them a third?

Thursday Night Football: Los Angeles (1-0) at Kansas City (1-0)

Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime Video (available on TV in local markets)
Live Stream: fuboTV (only available in KC and LA markets)
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Tickets: As low as $133 on SITickets.com*

Three Things To Watch

1. What can Mahomes do for an encore? And will he be 100 percent?
Since that Chargers game in December, it's like Mahomes has flipped a switch. With the notable exception of the AFC Championship, he's been lights out his last eight games (including the postseason): 26 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 71.3 percent completion rate. He's also been the team's leading rusher during that stretch, putting up 233 yards and a touchdown. Take out his game against the Cincinnati Bengals and those numbers get even more impressive.

The trendline is clear: whatever problems Mahomes had earlier in 2021 (a struggle that included two interceptions in a Chargers loss at home) have been fixed. When he's on his game, he's unstoppable, and Week 1 proved the Chiefs' offense is still firing on all cylinders despite the offseason loss of Tyreek Hill.

Indeed, there's no shortage of weapons. Free agent pickup and Hill replacement Juju Smith-Schuster fit right into the lineup, catching six passes for 79 yards. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire produced 74 total yards and two receiving touchdowns. Ten different Chiefs players caught passes, one more than Herbert's nine during a game where he was managing injuries within the Chargers offense (more on that in a minute).

Perhaps the only question about Mahomes' performance Thursday night surrounds his left wrist. He fell on it during the first quarter against the Chargers, but tests didn't reveal any major damage, and he would have been a full practice participant on Monday. "I'll be sore for the game Thursday," Mahomes acknowledged during a radio interview this week. "But I'll be fine."

Keep in mind the injury is to Mahomes' non-throwing arm and he stayed in the game, putting up 44 points against an NFC playoff team last year. So, while you can expect Mack and the Chargers (who posted six sacks and three interceptions) to knock him to the ground more than the Cardinals did last week, it's unlikely even aggravating that wrist will slow him down much.

2. Can the Chargers stop Travis Kelce?
We've gone this far and haven't even mentioned the Chiefs' biggest weapon: Travis Kelce. Simply look here if you're concerned about how a revamped Chargers defense can slow down Kansas City. Kelce was unstoppable the last time these two teams played, putting up a career-high 191 yards, 10 catches, and two touchdowns.

Now the Chiefs' primary weapon, Kelce is starting off this season nearly as strong: 10 catches, 121 yards, and a touchdown against the Cardinals. That was easily the most receiving yards by an NFL tight end in Week 1 and seventh most in the league overall.

"He's just so slippery with his routes, it's hard to even imagine," Mahomes said of Kelce after the Chargers game in December. "His shoulders start rocking and that's why he dances, I think. He's running and it looks like he's running slow, but he's moving fast."

Take one more look at the game-winning route in December, and you'll see the challenge the Chargers defense has in store. They're without cornerback J.C. Jackson, too, still recovering from ankle surgery and a DNP in the team's first injury report.

3. How will Justin Herbert manage the offense? And just who will be available to throw to?
Speaking of injuries, Herbert was dealt a big one to his offense with top target Keenan Allen also on Monday's DNP list. Allen hurt his hamstring against the Raiders and said after the game there's just a "small" possibility he'd be ready to play by Thursday night.

Herbert was able to persevere without his top target against the Raiders: in fact, his 129.4 passer rating ranks second to Mahomes after Week 1. And he's experienced incredible success at Arrowhead thus far in his career: seven passing touchdowns, no interceptions, and two wins in his first two starts.

The task becomes more difficult, though, without Allen because it allows opposing defenses to focus on the Chargers' other main target, Mike Williams. Williams had just two catches for 10 yards Sunday, none until the fourth quarter, as Herbert also spread the ball around to his offense. The problem was, he just wasn't as effective: the team scored only seven points in the second half with Allen in the locker room.

"I think a great thing that we do," Herbert said after the game, "is we're able to shuffle guys around and play multiple positions. We had some receivers step up."

That list included DeAndre Carter and Gerald Everett, combining for 118 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Neither is a marquee name, but they'll both need standout games for a second week in a row for the Chargers to compete.

Final Analysis

The Chargers will come to Arrowhead seeking revenge; their defense will be amped up and is clearly boosted by the presence of Mack, marking life easier on All-Pro Joey Bosa and Derwin James Jr. Expect them to penetrate the Chiefs offensive line a few times. They'll keep it close.

But the Chiefs are in a rhythm and more talented on the offensive side of the ball. Justin Herbert may be a great QB in the making, but he'll get a reminder Thursday night of the benchmark Mahomes has set for him to get there.