Dallas vs. Tennessee Prediction: Cowboys Take on the Tumbling Titans for Final Edition of TNF

The Cowboys hope to keep the good times rolling in prime time against a reeling Titans team that has a divisional showdown looming.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Updated:
Dec 28, 2022
Original:
Dec 27, 2022

The Dallas Cowboys face the reeling Tennessee Titans in a "Thursday Night Football" matchup that has America's Team crossing their fingers for a shot at the NFC East.

Dallas kept that dream alive with a thrilling 40-34 victory at home over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Now, the Cowboys need to win out and hope the Eagles lose out to capture the division. If San Francisco and Minnesota each go 1-1 over their final two games, Dallas would capture the top seed in the NFC and earn an improbable first-round bye.

The 7-8 Titans, meanwhile, enter this game with their fate tied entirely to a Week 18 showdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The winner of that game earns the AFC South title and a playoff spot regardless of how either team performs this coming week. Tennessee also could be extremely short-handed for this game but it will still serve an important purpose. With starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill out with an ankle injury, 50/50 to return by the regular-season finale, the Titans' offense needs all the reps it can get with rookie backup Malik Willis.

Even when Tannehill was healthy, the Titans have struggled to score points, putting up no more than 22 during a five-game losing streak that's seen them give up a seemingly insurmountable division lead. Compare that to the Cowboys, who have gone nine straight games scoring 24 points or more, going 7-2 during that stretch with wins against the Eagles, the Vikings, and the New York Giants.

Can the Titans' defense find a way to stop the Dallas juggernaut? Or will the Cowboys continue to build some playoff momentum in a game that doesn't change Tennessee's postseason push either way?

Thursday Night Football: Dallas (11-4) at Tennessee (7-8)

Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 29 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Broadcast Outlet: Prime Video
Live Stream: fuboTV (only available in Nashville and Dallas markets)
Spread: Cowboys -12
Tickets: As low as $156 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Will Malik Willis up his game?
Willis, a third-round pick, was one of the highest quarterbacks taken this year in a below-average class. Unfortunately, the former Liberty star has only proven critics right about how weak this group really was: in eight games of action this year, including three starts, he has yet to crack 100 passing yards in any game. Yet to throw a touchdown in the air, Willis is averaging a measly 4.52 yards per attempt while throwing three interceptions and posting an NFL-low 42.8 passer rating.

It doesn't help that the Titans' offensive line is depleted; two starters and their top backup went on injured reserve entering Week 16. But that can't fully explain these woeful performances, Willis going 1-2 with his lone win coming against the NFL-worst Houston Texans in Week 8. His defeat to them last week in the rematch gave Tennessee its longest losing streak since 2015.

Willis was defiant toward his critics, taking the blame for a costly interception that ruined a potential game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.

"I was fine regardless of what you see on the stat line," Willis said. "You're looking at the stat line, go worry about your fantasy team, not real life. Other than that, I feel comfortable out there."

It seems unlikely the Cowboys will allow him to feel "comfortable" Thursday night. Their 49 sacks rank third in the NFL, although they only have one in the last three games. Micah Parsons, a trendy pick for Defensive Player of the Year, was a terror against the Eagles, breaking through and creating pressure on every offensive possession. It feels like the stage is set for Dallas to eat Willis alive.

2. Can Derrick Henry save the Titans?
When you look at Henry's numbers during this five-game losing streak, you have to be impressed at what the NFL's premier running back has been able to accomplish. With the passing game nonexistent, defenses can key in on Henry, stuffing the line for every carry.

But the league's second-leading rusher has still found a way, posting three straight 100-yard performances with a touchdown in each. It's six (presumably seven with the PAT) automatic points, minimum, each week to help give the defense at least a glimmer of hope they can contend with some stops. And Henry has apparently been persevering through at least some of this stretch with a bothersome hip and after only getting in limited reps on Tuesday and Wednesday, Henry is listed as doubtful to play on Thursday night.

The Dallas defense does have a soft spot against the run, ranking just 22nd in the NFL allowing 130.0 yards per game. Even during their 7-2 spurt, the Cowboys allowed 192 yards or more in three of those games, including a whopping 240 to the Chicago Bears and rushing quarterback Justin Fields.

That makes the Titans' plan of attack simple: run, run, and run some more but it just may not be Henry out there. Fortunately, Willis' strength under center is with his legs.

3. Can Dak Prescott keep building on that Eagles momentum?
Prescott has been criticized plenty since his return from a fractured right thumb earlier this season. Less than six minutes into the Eagles game, a pick-six left his Cowboys team down by 10 at home. It was Prescott's eighth interception in his last five games; his 12 this season are just one short of tying a career high despite missing five games with that injury.

But something appeared to click last Saturday once Dak got into a rhythm. He completed 14 of his next 15 passes, adding a touchdown and putting up 17 points by the end of the half. The Dallas offense punted only once the whole game, going turnover-free while letting the Eagles make Dak-like mistakes in the form of an interception and two fumbles in the second half.

Is it just a blip on the radar or a true turning point? We'll find out Thursday night but all of Dak's weapons appear healed up with the exception of running back Tony Pollard, who's nursing a thigh injury. Top target CeeDee Lamb got plenty of help last week, from tight end Dalton Schultz to fellow receiver Michael Gallup. If Prescott can keep spreading the catches around while taking care of the football, watch out come playoff time.

Final Analysis

For some, a spread of 12 points seems high considering the Titans have been leading the AFC South all season. But those critics might not have actually watched this team play over the past month. It's hard to see Tennessee breaking through against a surging Dallas team still motivated even though their chances of earning the first-round bye are minimal at best.

How is Tennessee going to score? That's the question you have to ask yourself. And if Henry sits this one out to give him more time to heal with the division on the line against the Jaguars next week, the number of game-changers left on offense dropped to zero.

So a double-digit spread might actually be too low. Dallas is out to make a statement at the end of the year and it doesn't feel like the Cowboys run into much resistance in Music City on Thursday night.