Buffalo vs. New England Prediction: AFC East Rivals Kick Week 13 Off on TNF

Both teams jockeying for position in a crowded AFC playoff chase.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Updated:
Dec 1, 2022
Original:
Nov 29, 2022

For years, the New England Patriots would steamroll over the Buffalo Bills on the way to an AFC East title. From the turn of the century through the end of 2019, the Patriots won 35 of their 40 meetings, including a record 15 straight from 2003 through 2010 as the start of the Tom Brady era coincided with multiple Vince Lombardi trophies.

Lately, those tables have turned as the Bills have become Super Bowl contenders of their own under the top-tier quarterback play of Josh Allen. They’ve won four of the last five matchups between these teams, including a 47-17 thumping in an AFC Wild Card playoff game last January, the worst postseason loss ever for the Patriots during the Bill Belichick era.

It’s unlikely we’ll get the same thumping this time around. The Bills have gone just 2-2 in their past four games, eking out one-score wins against the lowly Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns. Allen, nursing a UCL injury to his throwing elbow, has registered a quarterback rating above 100 just once in his last five games, throwing more interceptions (seven) than TDs (six) during that stretch.

Could that provide an opening for the Patriots to strike? Quarterback Mac Jones had his best game of the year in a 33-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving night. It snapped a three-game win streak for this New England team, bringing them back to the precipice of playoff contention at 6-5.

Related: Expert Picks for Every Week 13 NFL Game

A victory here would bring the Patriots within a game of the Bills and even keep faint division hopes alive. But a Buffalo victory allows them another game of adjusting with Allen less than 100 percent, still keeping their eye on divisional rival Miami and even the Kansas City Chiefs as they’re just a game behind the No. 1 overall seed.

Who will prevail in arguably the best "Thursday Night Football" matchup of the year?

Thursday Night Football: Buffalo (8-3) at New England (6-5)

Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 1 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Broadcast Outlet: Prime Video
Live Stream: fuboTV (only available in Boston and Buffalo
markets)
Spread: Bills -4
Tickets: As low as $111 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. What is the status of Josh Allen's injury?
At times on Thanksgiving, Allen was at his best against the Lions, moving 48 yards in just 21 seconds to put Tyler Bass in position to kick the game-winning, 45-yard field goal with just two seconds on the clock. But he also threw his fifth red-zone interception in the last four games, giving the Lions life in the second half when the Bills were poised to take a 10-point lead.

It doesn’t help that the Bills are suffering through a patchwork offensive line. Tackle Dion Dawkins (ankle) was not able to practice and has been ruled out for Thursday night. Center Mitch Morse was a full participant this week, nursing elbow and ankle injuries that have him at less than 100 percent and officially listed as questionable.

The same can be said for Allen, whose elbow simply isn't going to heal with time (and Allen likely won't get much rest unless Buffalo clinches a playoff spot early but then seeding will still be a factor). If you haven’t read it, this CBS Sports column makes a good comparison to Carson Palmer’s UCL tear when he was starting for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2008. While avoiding surgery, Palmer was eventually shut down for the rest of the year and was never able to regain full zip on his throws.

Since the injury, Allen has won against two weaker teams while losing to the Jets and the Minnesota Vikings, the current No. 2 seed in the NFC at 9-2. Running into the Patriots’ fourth-ranked defense is unlikely to make him feel better, a team that’s neck-and-neck with the Bills in allowing just 18.4 points per game. In the last three games alone, New England's defense has caused 14 sacks while limiting two of their opponents to under 50 passing yards. That’s right; less than 50 yards for the entire game.

That means even a single turnover for Allen in this environment will be costly.

2. Can Mac Jones keep rallying the Patriots' offense?
It felt like Jones got in rhythm for the first time all season against the Vikings. A career-high 382 passing yards kept his team moving down the field, putting up points in six of their first seven possessions before fading late in the second half.

Problem is, too many of those offensive drives ended up with the field goal kicker trotting out. The Patriots are just 2-for-10 in the red zone in their last four games, despite going 3-1 during that stretch. Their 38.7 percent success rate ranks just 31st in the NFL as they look for an All-Pro-caliber playmaker than can elevate the offense in crunch time.

Can Rhamondre Stevenson fill that role? He had 112 yards of total offense against the Vikes (36 rushing, 76 receiving) and ranks eighth in the AFC with 680 total yards on the ground. He’ll need to shoulder more of the load in the backfield with Damien Harris (thigh) ruled out for Thursday and possibly longer. Offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn also will miss this game because of a foot injury.

New England will catch a break in that Buffalo's Von Miller will miss this one because of a knee injury he suffered last week. The Bills could get defensive end Greg Rousseau back. He's missed some time with an ankle injury but was a full practice participant, albeit during a short week, and is listed as questionable on the injury report.

3. Special teams
With two offenses enduring their share of struggles, special teams will make even more of an impact. Both kickers have been exceptional, including the Bass going 6-for-6 on field goal attempts in a 31-23 victory against the Browns two weeks ago.

On the Patriots' side, Nick Folk has been just as good, going 5-for-5 in a victory at the Jets a month ago while knocking through all 23 of his extra points (no small feat these days). And remember, the Pats won a different game against the Jets with their miraculous 84-yard punt return by rookie Marcus Jones with just seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.

But the Pats have also made a couple of key mistakes, including running into the punter during the Vikings game, a penalty that led to a touchdown later in the drive for Minnesota. The coverage unit also gave up a game-tying, 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to Kene Nwangwu in the third quarter just after New England had reclaimed the lead. Which team will find an edge on a cold, blustery night (a temp in the low 30s with 10-15 MPH winds is expected at game time)?

Final Analysis

Belichick has thrived through the years on being perpetually underestimated as a head coach. He’s brought this team back from what appeared to be a lost season and patched together a playoff-contending team through some injuries on offense.

The Lions last week exposed the Bills’ weaknesses on both sides of the ball. This Buffalo team hasn’t played a complete game in a month and the Patriots are talented enough to make them pay the price, especially at home.