Texas Bowl Prediction: Texas Tech and Ole Miss Tussle in Houston

This 2022 season has certainly been a roller-coaster ride for both the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Ole Miss Rebels coming into the TaxAct Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Red Raiders got off to a 3-1 start, including a scintillating 37-34 overtime win over Texas. But they lost four of their next five to drop below .500. A late-season burst saw them win three straight over Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma. An interesting side note was that the Techsters went 3-0 in overtime games, accounting for their 7-5 mark.

The Rebels started out going gangbusters, winning their first seven games, albeit against relatively weak competition. Still, on the morning of Oct. 22 they found themselves at 7-0 and ranked No. 7 in the country. Since then, the Rebels have won just once, a 31-28 escape at Texas A&M. They also played then-No. 9 Alabama to a one-score game before losing 30-24. But honestly, the biggest victory of the season happened when the Ole Miss administration was able to sign Lane Kiffin to a long-term deal to stay the head coach instead of moving on to Auburn.

Related: College Football Predictions for Every 2022-23 Bowl Game

Oh sure, anything can happen in these freak show bowl games, especially if one of the teams has copped an I-don’t-really-wanna-be-here attitude. But all things being equal there is certainly a reason why the Rebels are given a 62 percent chance to win here by ESPN Analytics.

TaxAct Texas Bowl: Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)

Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 28 at 9 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Ole Miss -3.5
Tickets: As low as $56 on SITickets.com*

When Texas Tech Has the Ball

This will state the obvious so try to act surprised; Texas Tech will be flinging the ball all over the yard here. The Red Raiders have the 12th-best passing attack in the country, averaging 310 yards per game through the air. Ole Miss is 57th nationally in pass defense, giving up 212 yards per game through the air. Tyler Shough was named the starting QB for the Raiders over last year’s Liberty Bowl MVP Donovan Smith and backup Behren Morton, after he led them to three straight wins to close the regular season, including a 436-yard effort in a 51-48 victory over Oklahoma. All three QBs have thrown for more than 1,000 yards this season, so head coach Joey McGuire won’t hesitate to pull an ineffective signal-caller. But if Shough has a big-time performance here he could attract more attention for his NFL draft hopes, which he is eligible for. He has one more year available to him at Tech because of the 2020 COVID roster rules.

Neither team is really all that crash-hot at stopping the run, though Tech seems to use the ground game in more of a way to keep defenses honest. Running backs SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks are coming off the Oklahoma game where they combined for 33 carries, with Thompson scoring a pair of touchdowns. They will likely get some chances against that Rebel defense as well. But worry not, Shough is still gonna sling it to his deep and talented receiver corps of Jerand Bradley (43 catches), Xavier White (42), Myles Price (48), Nehemiah Martinez (32), Loic Fouonji (27) and Trey Cleveland (22).

When Ole Miss Has the Ball

Oh this looks really bad for the Red Raiders. Okay Rebels, you with the third-best rushing offense in the country (averaging 266 ypg), meet the Raiders' rushing defense, the 90th-ranked unit in the country (giving up 166 ypg). That’s where the problems start for Double T and could very well set the tone for the game. Freshman phenom Quinshon Judkins could find plenty of room to roam in the second and third level of the Tech defense. Even in the three straight losses to Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi State, Judkins ran for 439 yards on 71 carries.

Jaxson Dart has been a clutch QB for most of this season, hitting on 63 percent of his passes and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He has also been sacked just 13 times in 12 games, which is the second-fewest sacks allowed in the SEC, behind Georgia. With Tech having to play without Tyree Wilson, their soon-to-be NFL-level edge rusher, Dart should be able to pick apart that Tech secondary, which ranked 98th nationally in passing defense during the regular season. Dart also has 117 rushing attempts on the season, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, so if things do break down he is not shy about making you pay with his feet.

Final Analysis

The biggest difference between these two teams is that while both offenses are certainly potent and capable, it’s the defense of the Red Raiders that is probably the biggest "weak link" on the field in this Big 12-SEC showdown. They rank 97th in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 30 points per game. As mentioned, Tech will have to play without Tyree Wilson, the team's best player and an All-American defensive lineman, so that won’t make things any better for the Raiders. The Rebels know this is a game that their offense can control. Also, give Lane Kiffin five weeks to prepare for anybody and you better have your popcorn ready.

Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Texas Tech 35

Podcast: Early National Signing Day Recap, Bowl Previews (Dec. 21-28), and the Future of College Football's Calendar in December

— Written by Eric Sorenson, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network. He is a college football, college baseball and college hockey addict... and writer. Follow him on Twitter @Stitch_Head.

*Price as of publication.