Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction: SoFi Stadium to Host Key Matchup of AFC Playoff Contenders

Both teams enter with same records but Titans lead their division while Chargers are currently on the wrong end of a tiebreaker for the final wild-card berth.

Author:
Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt)
Publish date:
Dec 16, 2022

It's a battle of potential playoff teams as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Both teams are 7-6 on the season, but that is good enough for Tennessee to be leading its division while LA is second in the AFC West — and currently out of the playoff picture. The Chargers have won 11 of the last 13 in the series, although they lost the last meeting 23-20 back in 2019. It was a battle between Ryan Tannehill and Philip Rivers, with Derrick Henry rushing for 90 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

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Tennessee has lost three straight since a 7-3 start to the season. The latest loss came at home at the hands of the Jaguars, who beat them 36-22 last week. For the first time in weeks, Henry was able to find some holes and had some ground game success, but that wasn't enough to slow down Trevor Lawrence who threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. The Titans were undone by four turnovers as a 14-7 first-quarter lead turned into a 33-14 deficit entering the fourth. Tannehill was without Treylon Burks (concussion) and the lack of skill-position weapons was shown to be a problem.

The Chargers have alternated losses and wins the last four weeks, with last Sunday night being a 23-17 win over the Dolphins. Justin Herbert was 39-of-51 for 367 yards and a touchdown in the victory as he had his full complement of wide receivers for the first time in several weeks with the return of Mike Williams. The wideout had six receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown. The short-handed defense held the Dolphins to just 219 yards and 14 first downs in the win despite being without Derwin James Jr., among other pieces.

Tennessee (7-6) at Los Angeles (7-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Chargers -3
Tickets: As low as $26 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Intangibles
The Titans are coming off a home contest against the Jags and have a presumed layup at home against the Texans next Saturday on Christmas Eve afternoon. Tennessee has its next two games at home after this one, so there's an opportunity to gather some momentum if it can win on Sunday. The Chargers are playing their second straight at home after four of their previous five being on the road. LA's got a Monday night affair with the Colts on the road up next as part of a very manageable schedule down the stretch.

2. Derrick Henry
The two-time NFL rushing champion finally had some success when he ran for 121 yards against the Jaguars. That came after racking up just 68 yards on 28 carries vs. the Eagles and the Bengals. Tennessee's offense is so much smoother when Henry can take pressure off Tannehill. Tennessee is 4-2 when it gets over 100 yards from their star running back. The Chargers are 28th against the run, allowing 147 yards per contest, so there's an opportunity for the Titans to shorten the game and try to keep the ball out of Herbert's hands.

3. Air Chargers?
The Titans' secondary is one of the worst units in football as they are allowing 283.7 yards per contest, including 340 over the last three games. Teams really haven't even hidden the fact that they want to exploit Tennessee's defensive weakness. Starting cornerback Kristian Fulton has been ruled out with a groin injury and backup Tre Avery (concussion) also will miss Sunday's game. That leaves rookie Roger McCreary and well-traveled veteran Terrance Mitchell to man those spots with Caleb Farley, the team's 2021 first-round pick who hasn't played much at all, on injured reserve. Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker make up a solid safety duo, but they need help. Herbert has thrown for more than 330 yards in each of the last two weeks, so expect the Chargers to throw it a ton once again.

Final Analysis

The home team was able to get away with the defensive injuries last week, but it's unclear how well they'll hold up against the ground game of the Titans. It's a battle of two teams that can exploit the other's weaknesses. The Chargers will be home, SoFi Stadium has one of the worst home-field advantages in pro sports. In the end, I trust Justin Herbert a little more than Mike Vrabel, so give me a tight win by the Chargers.