Tampa Bay vs. Arizona Prediction: Buccaneers Take on the Cardinals in Christmas Edition of SNF

Can 45-year-old Tom Brady conjure up a little holiday magic one last time out in the Arizona desert?

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Dec 23, 2022

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the Arizona Cardinals on Christmas already celebrating a few extra presents from Santa. The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback, Trace McSorley making his first career NFL start with both Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy sidelined by injuries. Last year’s playoff Cinderella, Arizona is already eliminated from this year’s postseason, sliding to a 4-10 record after losing the last four in a row.

But Tampa’s biggest Christmas miracle is how the Bucs still lead the NFC South despite a 6-8 record. It’s a body of work that would put them dead last in two of the NFL's seven other divisions; instead, Tom Brady’s bunch still controls their own playoff destiny. You couldn’t ask for an easier schedule down the stretch as their final three games are against these Cardinals, the 5-9 Carolina Panthers, and the 5-9 Atlanta Falcons.

But will even that be enough for a team that’s been a headscratcher since starting the year with a 19-3 win against the Dallas Cowboys? It’s the only one on their resume against a team that’s currently above .500. The Bucs have gotten dismantled, by a score of 69-30, the past two weeks against trendy Super Bowl contenders San Francisco and Cincinnati.

Through it all, the 45-year-old Brady has looked – dare I say it? – like a human, aging quarterback past his prime. He had four straight turnovers to start the second half last Sunday; keep in mind this man has gone entire seasons with less. Add in a career-low 6.26 yards per pass attempt and it’s no sure thing the Tampa Bay offense can produce enough points to win a game on the road.

So is the stage set for an Arizona upset, courtesy of McSorley at the helm? Or will Brady find a way to conjure up some holiday magic, getting his Bucs back on track before two straight divisional games decide their playoff fate?

Sunday Night Football: Tampa Bay (6-8) at Arizona (4-10)

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 25 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Buccaneers -7.5
Tickets: As low as $56 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. How will the Arizona offense play?
The Cardinals find themselves demoralized, out of postseason contention, and without their leader, Kyler Murray, on the field for the rest of the year. When Trace McSorley replaced an injured Colt McCoy early in the third quarter last Sunday, he led the team to just three points before a lone touchdown in garbage time. The numbers were far from spectacular: 7-for-15, 95 yards and two interceptions in a 24-15 loss against the 4-10 Denver Broncos.

Will a full week of reps with the first team raise McSorley to another level? He’s played in just three NFL games before this season, completing only three passes in 10 attempts. There’s nothing on the resume to indicate this former sixth-round pick can come in and go punch for punch with arguably the greatest NFL quarterback of all time.

Then again, this year’s Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, could say the same for San Francisco before embarrassing Brady in a one-on-one, 35-7 rout out in San Francisco. McSorley feels he’s in a position to do the same, relying on four years of watching and learning from the sidelines.

“[Brady]’s the GOAT, no other way to say it,” McSorley explained this week. “But I’m going against their defense, not him.”

He’s right. That Tampa D has just 13 takeaways, tied for 29th in the NFL, and only two interceptions in their last 10 games against QBs like Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky and P.J. Walker. If the Bucs can’t step it up against McSorley…

2. Which Tom Brady will we see?
The biggest issue for Brady during the past two months or so has been putting a full game together. He came out roaring against the Bengals, going 17-for-23 for 194 yards and two touchdowns in the first half.

The rest of the game, of course, was an outright disaster, Brady enduring his first career loss (89-1) when leading by 17 points or more.

“Just unforced errors,” Brady explained after the game. “Two fumbles, two interceptions. You can’t win a game like that.”

Head coach Todd Bowles has put an emphasis on fixing what he says are a number of slow starts in the second half. The numbers appear to back that up, with the Bucs scoring just 45 of their 247 points this year in the third quarter. No matter their first-half performance, it feels like the Bucs are constantly on their heels once the opposing team is given a minute to make adjustments.

A key to getting Brady back on target is former Pro Bowl receiver Mike Evans, who showed some signs of life against the Bengals after notching five catches for 83 yards. But Evans, who caught 27 touchdowns during the last two seasons, still hasn’t reached the end zone since a Week 4 loss against Kansas City. In fact, no receiver currently on the active roster has more than four touchdown catches this season, almost inexplicable when you consider the way Brady has elevated pass catchers throughout his career.

3. Arizona’s run game… both offense and defense
McSorley starting means the Cardinals will rely heavily on James Conner to carry the load. It wasn’t enough against the Broncos; Arizona’s 73 total rushing yards were just six more than their season-low output.

But the Bucs, ranked just 17th in rushing defense, give teams the ability to run the football. It may be the Cardinals’ only offensive hope with so many weapons, from Murray to tight end Zach Ertz to receiver Greg Dortch, either out or operating at far less than 100 percent.

The Bucs don’t just need to stop Arizona in its tracks running the football; they need to find a way to run it themselves, taking the pressure off Brady a bit. An offense that ranks dead last with 74.3 rushing yards per game has just two 100-yard rushing performances all year. It’s no coincidence they won both games.

Final Analysis

On paper, Tampa Bay should win this one in a cakewalk considering Arizona’s lack of motivation and the injuries piling up. An NFC-worst 1-7 home record is one of many things that has put head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s future in jeopardy.

And yet. The way the Buccaneers have played all season, you never quite know what to expect. A miserable performance by Brady and the offense and an inspired performance by yet another NFL fill-in QB could keep this game far more interesting than it should be. For those bettors out there, I’d lay off: the Bucs are just 3-10-1 against the spread this season.