New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Prediction: NFC East Rivals Aim to Break Tie on SNF

Teams meeting for the second time in three weeks in a critical divisional game with major playoff implications.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Dec 16, 2022

The Washington Commanders have had plenty of time to think about how their last New York Giants matchup ended in a tie. After a week of rest, Washington gets the rare opportunity to play a division rival back-to-back, looking to finish the job against the Giants this time with a likely NFC Wild Card bid on the line.

Related: Expert Picks for Every Week 15 NFL Game

According to Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz, the Commanders’ playoff odds improve to 86 percent with a win. If they lose? It drops to 21 percent. The Giants face a similar model, jumping to 90 percent with a win against the Commanders but falling to 31 percent with a loss.

Both teams enter with a record of 7-5-1, holding the sixth and seventh seeds in the conference. Whoever wins holds the equivalent of a two-game lead on the other with three games left to play, earning a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker as leverage in case Seattle (7-7), Detroit (6-7) or Green Bay (5-8) get hot and fly past both teams.

“This is an opportunity,” Commanders head coach Ron Rivera explained to his team this week. “And we’ve got to focus in on it.”

While the Commanders have been busy prepping, the Giants are licking their wounds from a 48-22 dismantling courtesy of the Philadelphia Eagles. Just 1-4-1 in their last six games, with that win coming against the worst team in the NFL (Houston), the task ahead for New York appears daunting. The 10-3 Vikings and a return date with the 12-1 Eagles loom large on the schedule after this one, although Giants head coach Brian Daboll tries not to inflate the importance of any matchup.

“I view every game as a ‘must win’ game,” Daboll said this week. “That’s why you go play them. It’s the next game, it’s important, it’s against a division team. We got to go out there and play well.”

Who will have the edge in the rematch? Can the Giants find the mojo that had them win six of their first seven games this year? Or will the Commanders take charge and continue their recent surge into playoff contention?

Sunday Night Football: New York (7-5-1) at Washington (7-5-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 18 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Commanders -4.5
Tickets: As low as $78 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. How much healthier will Washington be after the bye?
An extra week for Washington did wonders for their offensive line, which already lost starting center Tyler Larsen to a season-ending knee injury. All but one player on the injury report practiced in at least a limited fashion, and only five carry an injury designation heading into this game. The Commanders should get starting offensive linemen Sam Cosmi (ankle) and Trai Turner (knee) both back in the lineup. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been activated from injured reserve after his ring finger injury, but he'll back up Taylor Heinicke going forward.

On the defensive side, buzz is building defensive end Chase Young will make his season debut on Sunday night. A limited practice participant this week, Young has been off the field for more than a year after suffering a catastrophic knee injury in November 2021. He's officially questionable but is probably more like to play than not.

“Still taking it one day at a time,” Young told reporters this week. “When I’m ready, I’ll be ready.”

It feels like that answer will be “yes” with the season on the line for the Commanders. Even in the unlikely event Young doesn’t suit up, the ability to heal up this late in the season gives an edge to Washington as play shifts to its home turf.

2. Can Saquon Barkley recapture the magic?
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out who drives the Giants' offense. During their recent 1-4-1 slump, the former Pro Bowl running back had 152 yards on 35 carries in the lone win against Houston.

In the other five games? Barkley has a total of just 205 yards on 73 carries, a woeful 2.8 yards per carry average as teams have ganged up on the run. What’s worse, he almost missed the Eagles game with a stinger injury suffered in practice although Barkley is no longer on the injury report.

The Commanders did a good job of containing Barkley earlier this month, limiting him to 63 yards, 3.5 yards per carry, and a lone first-half touchdown. Just three of those yards came in the second half and overtime as the Washington defense clamped down; the Commanders are now ninth in the NFL against the run and fourth overall in total yards allowed (310.5 yards per game).

For his part, Barkley is trying to downplay the recent slump, a full participant in practice this week and noting it’s the healthiest this oft-injured star has been this late in the season.

“I feel pretty good,” Barkley said Thursday. “I don’t feel no better or no worse than anyone else who is in Week 15. I feel the same way. I put a lot of work in my body. I put a lot of money in my body. I’m just happy. Last couple of years I haven’t been this healthy in December. I’m healthy and I just want to go out there and try to make a difference for my team.”

Three years ago, Barkley had one of the most explosive performances of his career against Washington: 22 carries for 189 yards and a touchdown on the road. The Giants need that, and then some, to keep pace Sunday night.

3. Heinicke vs Jones: Who makes fewer mistakes?
Two weeks ago, Washington jumped out to a 10-0 lead on the Giants before their offense fizzled out. By the end of the half, the Giants had tied the game at 13 before a strip sack on Heinicke to start the second half left the Commanders on their heels. They spent the rest of the second half fighting back from a 20-13 deficit before Heinicke drove the team to a game-tying touchdown with less than two minutes to play.

That’s where Heinicke separated himself from fellow young quarterback Daniel Jones, who started out hot but couldn’t put it together when it mattered down the stretch. Both men fumbled once, but Heinicke’s mistake was more costly (Washington earned just a field goal after Jones’ turnover). Jones also had the higher completion percentage (80.6 to 65.8) and edged Heinicke out on quarterback rating.

Both teams believe their signal-callers are underrated, game managers who thrive in making the most of their available weapons. But Heinicke has had some success in big game moments while Jones remains unproven; just two of the Giants' seven victories this year have come against teams with winning records. Washington has galvanized under its young QB, getting hot after a 1-4 start to the season appeared to leave the playoffs little more than a pipe dream.

On the Giants’ side, assuming Barkley remains less than 100 percent, that puts the pressure on Jones to get the job done. Can he spark this Giants offense after some ugly play against the Eagles? His first half there included no drive longer than 30 yards and just one touchdown after the Giants were gifted field position after a blocked punt. By the time his team hit the locker room, the Eagles were up comfortably, 24-7.

Final Analysis

Both teams are anxious to avenge a tie each side treated like a loss. The difference for the Commanders is they’ve had an extra week to get healthy and only watch film surrounding their most recent matchup. The Giants? They’ve been stripped of momentum and confidence after a deflating performance against the Eagles.

It’s hard to see the Giants regrouping on the road versus a team that’s 6-1-1 in its last eight games and beat those very same Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field one month ago. While the Giants had a solid start to the season, their playoff hopes appear to suddenly hinge on whether everyone else around them fizzles out.

Washington won’t be one of those teams.