Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction: Final Playoff Spot on the Line for SNF

The final NFL regular-season game of 2022 will determine the final wild-card spot in the NFC.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Jan 6, 2023

The Detroit Lions haven't been in playoff position since 2016. The Green Bay Packers were sitting at 4-8 a month ago, seemingly down for the count just a year after tying for the NFL's best record.

Both teams could end Sunday night with the seventh and final postseason ticket in the NFC, pulling off a pair of remarkable comebacks. For the Packers, it's a win-and-in scenario after a surprising surge, four victories that include two against teams in playoff position: Minnesota and Miami. It's quite a recovery from one of the toughest NFL schedules as the Packers' run game and development of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson has taken the pressure off their surprisingly wobbly MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

The Lions aren't quite in the same position as the Packers. They need to win and hope the Seattle Seahawks don't beat the Los Angeles Rams earlier Sunday afternoon to make it in. But just to be in this position is borderline remarkable considering the Lions' 1-6 start that left head coach Dan Campbell on the hot seat.

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Detroit does head into Green Bay with confidence, defeating its rivals 15-9 back in November. It's the only time this season the Lions' worst-ranked NFL defense has allowed fewer than 10 points, frustrating Rodgers that day into a season-high three interceptions. Detroit continues to feel slighted by one of the NFL's best, claiming a season sweep is necessary to get Rodgers and the Packers to show them a little more respect.

"He's a Hall of Famer, but I just don't respect the way he's been talking about my guys all year," Lions safety DeShon Elliott said. "And the way that team views us. So we're going to go out there and prove something."

Can the Lions make their miracle playoff run a reality in the final game of the NFL's regular season? Or will Rodgers and the Packers become one of the strongest wild-card teams in recent history?

Sunday Night Football: Detroit (8-8) at Green Bay (8-8)

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Packers -4.5
Tickets: As low as $139 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Can the Lions' defense step up?
Detroit's D looked fantastic against the lowly Chicago Bears last weekend, holding them to 10 points and a season-best 230 net yards. They had as many quarterback sacks (seven) as the Bears had pass completions, forcing a fumble en route to a second-half shutout.

But the Packers come in with a lot more momentum. Their 41-17 dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings last week included 163 rushing yards, 111 from Aaron Jones, along with scores on four of their first six offensive possessions. Green Bay has averaged 29.8 points during their four-game win streak, better than the current NFL full-season leaders (Kansas City, 29.1).

That could cause trouble for a defense that ranks in the bottom four in most major categories: total yards allowed (32nd), rushing yards allowed (29th), passing yards allowed (30th), and third-down conversions allowed (30th). The key will be takeaways: 13 in the Lions' last seven victories have helped tip the scales along with a resurgent offense. The Packers, who have 20 giveaways all season, are going to need to take care of the football at home.

2. Jared Goff vs. Aaron Rodgers
What would you have said if I told you before the start of the season Goff would have a better passer rating than Rodgers? The former No. 1 overall pick has revitalized his career these past few months, throwing 17 touchdowns to just a single interception in the Lions' recent 7-2 stretch.

Goff has found a favorite target in Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose four receptions against the Bears gave him 100 for the season. He should also get credit for developing other options, from DJ Chark to tight end replacement Brock Wright, thrust into a larger role after T.J. Hockenson was traded away.

If there's been a weakness for Goff, though, it's been on the road: his passer rating is just 87.6 with only six touchdowns and four interceptions. Will that give Rodgers the leeway to reassert himself? Even against Minnesota, he was little more than a bit player, utilizing the run game while throwing for only 159 yards and a touchdown.

Both men are former Cal quarterbacks, but Rodgers is the one who's far more outspoken.

"When it was 4-8, not many people believed," Rodgers said. "Next thing you know we're 8-8, controlling our own destiny with a game right here to get into the dance. How 'bout that?"

You would think he needs some special throws to Christian Watson in order to make it happen. The rookie wide receiver has piled up seven touchdowns but cooled off in recent weeks, pulling down just seven receptions for 106 yards during the recent three-game win streak. Jones is the face of the Packers, their best overall player who can both catch and run. But they'll need Watson and maybe Allen Lazard to remain a force, stretching the field and putting pressure on the Lions' secondary.

3. The Packers' return game
There's a reason the Packers' Keisean Nixon was named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week. His 105-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against the Vikings was the longest of his career and the third longest in team history. He now has back-to-back weeks with 90-plus-yard kickoff returns, just the third time in the last 45 seasons it's happened in the NFL.

That's a potential seven-point swing the Lions just can't compensate for. They're seventh in the NFL with 795 kickoff return yards but have two fumbles, no touchdowns, and a long of just 52 yards. Compare that to the Packers, whose 1,126 total yards and five returns of 40-plus yards lead the league.

What will the Packers do if the Lions try to kick away from Nixon?

"We'll just throw it back to him," head coach Matt LaFleur joked this week.

Final Analysis

Expect a close game, even if the Lions are eliminated — they're highly motivated to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. Head coach Dan Campbell and company should be commended for how far they've come in just the last two months.

But Rodgers and the Packers have the experience, the home-field advantage, and the momentum to get the job done. The return game could swing it as they march into the playoffs as a No. 7 seed that nobody's going to want to play.