Peach Bowl Prediction: Ohio State's High-Powered Offense Meets Georgia's Elite Defense

The Bulldogs look to book a trip back to the national title game against a Buckeyes team eager to embrace their second chance.

Author:
Steven Lassan
Publish date:
Dec 30, 2022

A spot in the national championship is on the line when Ohio State and Georgia meet in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in the second College Football Playoff semifinal on Saturday. It’s a short trek from Athens for the Bulldogs to defend home turf and return to the national title, but the Buckeyes are hungry for a second chance. After losing to Michigan in the regular-season finale, there was no guarantee coach Ryan Day’s team could make the four-team tournament. However, a loss by USC in the Pac-12 title game opened the door for Ohio State to finish No. 4 in the rankings and earn a second opportunity at the championship.

Defending a national title is never easy, but Georgia has made it look that way for most of 2022. The Bulldogs crushed Oregon 49-3 in the opener and had only one victory decided by less than 17 points before a huge win over Tennessee (27-13) on Nov. 5 to take control of the SEC East. Coach Kirby Smart’s team finished its regular season with solid wins over Mississippi State and Kentucky and handled LSU 50-30 in the SEC title game to claim the No. 1 overall ranking for the CFB Playoff. Georgia had one blemish on its resume (a loss to Alabama) en route to its national title last season. However, the Bulldogs are on the doorstep of history along with an undefeated mark this time around. With two victories, Georgia would complete a perfect 15-0 season and become the first team since Alabama (2011-12) to go back-to-back as a national champion.

The loss to Michigan is the biggest storyline surrounding Ohio State going into the CFB Playoff. However, that defeat shouldn’t overshadow the entire resume for the Buckeyes. Day’s team knocked off Notre Dame 21-10 in the season opener, crushed Iowa 54-10, and beat Penn State 44-31 to get to 11-1. Also, none of the team’s victories came by single digits. Ohio State’s 11 victories moved Day’s overall mark to 45-5 in Columbus and 31-2 in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes have made the CFB Playoff in three of Day’s four years at the helm and played for the national title in ’20. As if there wasn’t enough motivation already to rebound after the loss to Michigan, Ohio State is nearly a touchdown underdog going into Saturday’s game. The Buckeyes are eager for a second chance after the way the loss to the Wolverines transpired, and with few (if any) picking Day’s team, perhaps a loose and motivated team can play with house money and test Georgia more than any program has this year.

Ohio State and Georgia have only one previous meeting on the gridiron (1993 Citrus Bowl). This season marks the third time the Bulldogs have earned a trip to the CFB Playoff, while the Buckeyes are making their fifth trek to the four-team championship.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 4 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 1 Georgia (13-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Georgia -6.5
Tickets: As low as $326 on SITickets.com*

When Ohio State Has the Ball

It’s a matchup of strength versus strength and two of the nation’s best units when Ohio State’s offense meets Georgia’s defense. The Buckeyes are dynamic and explosive on this side of the ball, averaging 44.5 points a game and 7.3 yards per play. Only three teams – Michigan, Notre Dame and Northwestern (poor weather conditions) – held Ohio State under 43 points in a contest this year. But the Buckeyes will meet their stiffest test in ’22 against a Georgia defense that is limiting teams to 12.8 points a game and loaded with talent, speed and depth at all three levels.

Although quarterback C.J. Stroud and arguably the nation’s best receiving corps is going to garner most of the pregame attention, Ohio State won’t have a chance to win unless the front five hold up in the trenches. Anchored by standout defensive tackle Jalen Carter, the Bulldogs are holding opponents to just 76.9 rushing yards a game. Also, although the sack total is modest (26), this group has stepped up in the biggest matchups this year. Ohio State’s offensive front has allowed only eight sacks all year, but some of the better defenses on its ’22 slate – Iowa, Notre Dame, Penn State and Michigan – all gave the line trouble. Protecting Stroud and giving him a clear pocket to throw from is a must.

Over 12 starts this year, Stroud threw for 3,340 yards and 37 touchdowns to just six picks. The junior won’t make many mistakes, is efficient (66.2) and ranked second nationally in yards per attempt (9.4). Marvin Harrison Jr. emerged as the No. 1 receiver with Jaxon Smith-Njigba out due to injury, as the sophomore grabbed 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns. Emeka Egbuka (66 catches), Julian Fleming (29) and tight end Cade Stover (35) round out the next tier of options in the passing game for Stroud. Georgia’s secondary allowed only one team (LSU) to eclipse more than 300 passing yards this fall. With standout safeties in Christopher Smith and Malaki Starks, along with cornerback Kelee Ringo, this group has the physical talent and experience to match up against Ohio State’s playmakers.

The Buckeyes won’t have running back TreVeyon Henderson (571 yards) due to injury, but Day has proven options here in the form of Miyan Williams (817) and Dallan Hayden (102). Former Arizona State running back Chip Trayanum (92 yards) has shifted back from linebacker to add another weapon on the ground.

For Ohio State to win, the front has to hold up against the Georgia defensive line and linebacker unit. That would allow Stroud time to throw with a clean pocket and let Harrison and the other receivers make plays in space. Although the Buckeyes need to hit big plays, letting the playmakers catch and run to test the Bulldogs' tackling after a long layoff is a must. If Stroud is under duress and the offense is consistently operating in long-yardage situations on third downs, the path to a win becomes narrow for Day’s team.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Although Georgia’s offense doesn’t quite get the national recognition of Ohio State, this unit averages 39.2 points a game and 6.97 yards per play. Big gains aren’t necessarily a strength, but the Bulldogs ranked ninth nationally in plays of 10-plus yards and No. 12 in gains of 20-plus yards. Efficiency and getting chunks of yardage to stay out of long down-and-distance situations have been strengths all year for Georgia’s offense. The Buckeyes had a dismal performance on defense against Michigan in late November, but under new coordinator Jim Knowles, this unit improved compared to last season. Ohio State is holding opponents to 19.3 points a game and 4.8 yards per play (down from 5.3).

The Bulldogs lack a glaring weakness on this side of the ball, as Ohio State will face a pick-your-poison dilemma when trying to defend this unit. Quarterback Stetson Bennett passed for 3,425 yards and 20 touchdowns to only six picks and ran for 184 yards and seven scores in the regular season. The Buckeyes have to find a way to win on early downs to get Georgia into long-yardage situations on third downs. Also, keeping Bennett in the pocket and not allowing him to escape to the edge to throw or run is a must.

Tight end Brock Bowers (52 catches) is an all-around matchup nightmare for Ohio State, with fellow tight end Darnell Washington (6-foot-7) another difficult player for this unit to account for. Ladd McConkey (51 catches) is the team’s leading wide receiver but an injury suffered in the SEC Championship Game has clouded his status for Saturday. The Bulldogs don’t lack weapons on the outside and a boost could be coming with AD Mitchell inching closer to 100 percent after dealing with an ankle injury all year. Ohio State ranked eighth in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense and was susceptible to big plays (11 of 40-plus yards allowed).

The strength of Ohio State’s defense rests up front. Led by standouts in linebacker Tommy Eichenberg (112 tackles) and end JT Tuimoloau (11 TFLs), the Buckeyes allowed only 3.4 yards per carry and generated 32 sacks this fall. Georgia’s offensive line was a brick wall of protection (seven sacks allowed) and cleared the way for rushers to average 5.5 yards per carry. Kenny McIntosh (709 yards), Daijun Edwards (681) and Kendall Milton (533) form a potent trio for coordinator Todd Monken to deploy. Can the Buckeyes slow this group and create negative plays to get Georgia’s offense into long-yardage downs? If Georgia’s rushing attack has success, and Bennett is consistently hitting the chunk plays, Ohio State will have a tough time pulling off the upset.

Final Analysis

When Georgia was faced with its toughest test of the season, Smart’s team often responded with a dominant effort (see Oregon and Tennessee). Ohio State has the offensive talent to test the Bulldogs’ defense and is likely to win some battles against this unit. However, can the Buckeyes get enough stops on defense to leave Atlanta with a victory? The guess here is Georgia’s rushing attack, the steady play of Bennett, and a big play or two from Bowers, help Smart’s team pull away and book a trip to the national championship for the third time in six years.