NFC Wild Card Prediction: Tampa Bay Looks to Continue Recent Success Against Dallas

Can the Cowboys stop Tom Brady and the Bucs on the road to wrap up the Wild Card Round?

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Jan 14, 2023

The Dallas Cowboys won four more games than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. Their problem? They play in the same NFC East that produced this year’s top seed, the Philadelphia Eagles, whose 14-3 record was the best during the NFL's regular season.

That leaves the Cowboys in the unenviable position of traveling to Tampa Bay and facing 45-year-old Tom Brady on the road for their NFC Wild Card playoff game. The Bucs, only 8-9 this year, struggled on both sides of the ball and needed a fourth-quarter comeback against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 just to win their division. Their 4-2 record within the NFC South ultimately made the difference against a trio of teams who could do no better than 7-10.

But no matter how ragged the Bucs look coming in, no one wants to face the GOAT in what could potentially be his final NFL game. Brady still had a successful year, albeit a little below average by his standards. His 4,694 passing yards marked the third straight season in which he’s gone above 4,500 with Tampa Bay; his nine interceptions were the fewest since joining the team in 2020.

Brady also has a healthy Mike Evans at wide receiver, a connection that’s finally borne fruit once again during the past few weeks. Evans’ 207-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 17 swung both the Panthers and NFL fantasy football playoff matchups everywhere as he reminded everyone why he’s one of the best wideouts in the NFL.

These teams also faced each to open this season, a 19-3 Bucs win in Dallas on "Sunday Night Football." That was the game that Dak Prescott injured his thumb as the Cowboys struggled to do much of anything on offense (244 total yards, 3.8 yards per play). Brady didn't light up the Dallas D (18-for-27, 212 yds., TD, INT) but Tampa got 127 rushing yards from Leonard Fournette and took advantage of the Prescott injury to get the road victory. However, much has changed for both teams since that game.

Which of these teams will prevail in the final game of Super Wild Card Weekend? Can Dallas wash off some ugly recent playoff history or will the Bucs somehow find a way despite being the only playoff team this season with a record under .500?

NFC Wild Card: Dallas (12-5) at Tampa Bay (8-9)

Kickoff: Monday, Jan. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Cowboys -2.5
Tickets: As low as $239 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Can Dak Prescott outplay Tom Brady?
The Cowboys' offense caught fire once Prescott returned from that Week 1 thumb injury. They ended the regular season 11th overall in total yards, fourth in points per game (27.5), and led the league with a 71.43 percent conversion rate in the red zone. It’s clear Prescott's arm alone gives Dallas a better chance to win.

But Prescott, especially within the last two months, has found himself prone to mistakes. In the last seven games alone, he’s thrown 11 interceptions, hurting his team in crunch time during games against inferior opponents like Jacksonville and Washington.

Compare that to Brady, whose history of playoff success is unparalleled within the NFL. And he takes advantage of quarterbacks who give him the opportunity to score points. Consider last season's wild-card game against the Eagles, where Brady and company jumped out to a 31-0 lead. They took advantage of Jalen Hurts' two interceptions while Brady was near-perfect, throwing for 271 yards and two touchdowns to post a 115.2 passer rating. The Buccaneers capitalized on the good field position the Eagles created through turnovers and took charge of the game at home.

The Cowboys can’t afford to make those types of mistakes. Prescott needs to have the type of flawless game he hasn’t had in nearly two months; is it in him?

2. Can the Dallas defense make a play?
The Cowboy's D stood out this season through an ability to cause turnovers. Their 33 takeaways led the league, leading to a plus-10 turnover margin that was second only to the San Francisco 49ers. In the past six games alone, Dallas has forced 17 turnovers, including nine interceptions, while holding teams to less than six points on average during the fourth quarter.

That type of solid defense should break through against the Bucs, who have struggled this season to a minus-two turnover margin. Each of Tampa's last six games has had at least one turnover, often putting the team behind to depend on a Brady comeback during the second half.

3. Which team wins on the ground?
The Tony Pollard-Ezekiel Elliott combo has been exceptional for Dallas, finishing the regular season ninth in the NFL in rushing offense. Pollard went over the 1,000-yard mark, bypassing the aging Elliott with three 100-yard performances during the season (Elliott had none). They combined for 1,883 yards on the ground despite being virtually invisible or inactive during the past two games. Tampa Bay’s 15th-ranked run defense will have its hands full.

By comparison, Leonard Fournette is the Buccaneers' leading rusher with 668 total yards. But it’s important for this team to have some sort of rushing attack in order to buy the statuesque Brady time in the pocket. In the season opener, Fournette ran for 127 yards, which is the second most given up by the Cowboys defense this season (Aaron Jones had 138 in Week 10). His longest run went for 17 yards and he finished with six yards per carry. Fournette may not be the first playmaker you think of when it comes to Tampa's offensive attack but he could be a wild card in his own right that could make the difference on Monday night.

Final Analysis

There's a reason the NFL put this game on Monday night: it should easily be the most competitive of the six during "Super Wild Card Weekend." Dallas may come in with the better record, winning six of its last eight games, but the Cowboys don’t have a history of recent playoff success. You can’t discount Tampa Bay winning the Super Bowl just two years ago, a team that has also beaten Dallas in each of the last two regular-season meetings.

In the end, the Cowboys should pull this one out, but expect it to be back and forth all the way through the fourth quarter. A Brady-led team never goes down without a fight.