NFC South: Examining Over/Under Win Totals for the 2022 Season

The NFC South will always be interesting as long as Tom Brady is in it. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought back a large majority of the core in the hopes of making the Super Bowl. Of course, the New Orleans Saints stand in their way and they try to move on without Sean Payton as their head coach. The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons are also in the division, but both have their own issues and will try to play spoiler against their rivals.

NFL Win Totals for 2022: AFC East I AFC North I AFC South I AFC West I NFC East I NFC North I NFC South I NFC West

Note: Win total numbers courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Atlanta Falcons (Over 5 +125...Under 5 -145)

Division Champion Odds: 35/1

Offense: There's a changing of the guard after the Falcons traded Matt Ryan to Indianapolis, and now it's Marcus Mariota and fourth-round draft pick Desmond Ridder under center. Mariota's mobility is intriguing, but it's hard to believe this offense is anything more than feeding Kyle Pitts as much as possible. Pitts turned in a solid rookie campaign with 1,026 receiving yards, although the one touchdown needs to improve. We'll see if Cordarrelle Patterson is used again as a hybrid player in the backfield and out wide again since it worked well last season. Other than those two, there's not a lot to be excited about, although rookies Drake London and Tyler Allgeier could be intriguing.

Defense: The defense lost its leading tackler with Foye Oluokun heading to Jacksonville. Several other starters went on to better situations, which leaves this team young in certain positions. The secondary figures to be the team's strength, especially at cornerback where A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward Jr. reside. As good as that duo is, the safety duo is that poor. The linebacking corps has some potential with Rashaan Evans (Titans) and Lorenzo Carter (Giants) coming over as free agents. This side of the ball figures to be problematic and shouldn't be counted on to do much.

Schedule Notes: The Falcons open up with three of their first five on the road, with early trips to take on the Rams and Bucs. They have one of the latest byes in the league, and maybe that's the time they turn to Ridder — if not sooner. There's a stretch of four of six at home from Oct. 30 to Dec. 4.

Prediction: Three or four wins. Could be the worst team in the league.

Related: Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

Carolina Panthers (Over 6.5 -110...Under 6.5 -110)

Division Champion Odds: 9/1

Offense: Baker Mayfield is here to try to improve this mediocre offense. Mayfield edged out Sam Darnold in the preseason (who then got hurt) and became the choice for head coach Matt Rhule, whose seat is getting rather hot. Of course, almost anything involving this side of the ball will be decided by Christian McCaffrey and his health. He racked up 785 yards and two touchdowns last season despite only playing in parts of seven games. The wide receiver room is intriguing with DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson leading the way along with Rashard Higgins and Laviska Shenault Jr., who was acquired in a trade with Jacksonville on final cuts day. The offensive line isn't terrible, and they hope they find their left tackle of the future in Ikem Ekwonu of NC State, whom they selected sixth overall.

Defense: Losing Haason Reddick to the Eagles is huge considering he had the most sacks of the unit. They also saw Stephon Gilmore, leave although he wasn't what he used to be on the field. The defense still figures to get plenty of pressure on the quarterback with Brian Burns returning. The squad did add Matt Ioannidis, who didn't get used enough in DC with the Commanders. Shaq Thompson continues to be one of the best linebackers in football, and he had 104 tackles in 2021. The secondary should be really strong too with Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson at corner and Xavier Woods and Jeremy Chinn at safety. This could be a sneaky good unit.

Schedule Notes: Mayfield has Week 1 circled as Cleveland comes to Carolina. It's part of an early stretch where the Panthers are home for four of the first five contests. They have some tough road trips to LA and Baltimore also in the early part of the season before a Week 13 bye. Things couldn't get any tougher at the end with road trips to Tampa Bay and New Orleans that could decide both of their playoff seeding fates.

Prediction: Slight lean to the over here. I think they will be a pest this season.

Related: Carolina Panthers Depth Chart

New Orleans Saints (Over 8.5 -110...Under 8.5 -110)

Division Champion Odds: +310

Offense: This is Year 2 with Jameis Winston, and the hope is that he can make it through the season since playing three different QBs last year didn't work out too well. Winston has a ton of weapons with Michael Thomas hopefully being healthy and rookie Chris Olave hoping to build off the preseason. New Orleans also added one of the best slot receivers in Jarvis Landry. The ground game should be spectacular with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II in the backfield. The offensive line may take a small step back, though, with Terron Armstead in Miami. His replacement, rookie Trevor Penning, got hurt and is out indefinitely as well.

Defense: The biggest changes in the defense happened in the secondary with Tyrann Mathieu coming home and Marcus Maye moving over from the Jets to replace Marcus Williams, who went to Baltimore. The front group is good at getting pressure, with Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport producing 21.5 of the team's 46 sacks last year. Demario Davis and Pete Werner are a really good linebacking duo, with cornerback Marshon Lattimore shutting down one side of the field. We'll see how Paulson Adebo does in Year 2, but he handled himself well in 2021. Dennis Allen staying as the team's defensive coordinator may have been the biggest thing to happen to them.

Schedule Notes: The Saints have three back-to-back road game situations on the schedule, although one of them is in late September/early October when they play at Carolina and take on Minnesota in London. They have a late bye week much like the other teams in the division, and half of their final four games are at home, with both being home winnable matchups against Carolina and Atlanta.

Prediction: Give me the over here. Also sprinkle a little on them to win the division.

Related: New Orleans Saints Depth Chart

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 11.5 +115...Under 11.5 -135)

Odds to win the NFC South: -250

Offense: Tampa's skill position guys are going to be strong as usual, but there are massive concerns with an offensive line that already lost Alex Cappa (Cincinnati) and Ali Marpet (retirement). That followed up with injuries to Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie, among others. With that concerning hole, it'll be interesting to see how much Tom Brady is under siege by opposing pass rushes. How this will affect the ground game and Leonard Fournette also remains to be seen. Tampa may need to run it a little bit more to take the pressure off Brady, who has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (returning from a torn ACL) back along with former Falcons Julio Jones and Russell Gage.

Defense: This is the best linebacking corps in the NFL with Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaq Barrett all being playmakers. The secondary is pretty much intact, although Jordan Whitehead signed a free-agent deal with the Jets. They addressed that departure with Keanu Neal, who dealt with an arm injury and missed most of the preseason. I like Carlton Davis III and Sean Murphy-Bunting at corner, but there's a little concern about the depth behind them. All in all, continuity is the biggest thing and that's good for this side of the ball.

Schedule Notes: It's a very fast start to the season with road trips to Dallas and New Orleans. After that are three straight at home, with the first two being Green Bay and Kansas City. The team alternates road and home games after a Week 11 bye with road tilts at San Francisco and Arizona in the mix as well as Cleveland, who will have Deshaun Watson back.

Prediction: Pretty solid number, as I come up with 11 or 12 wins. 

Related: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.