New York vs. Miami Prediction: Dolphins Need a Win Over Jets to Keep Slim Playoff Hopes Alive

Both AFC East teams enter regular-season finale looking to snap five-game losing streaks.

Author:
Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt)
Publish date:
Jan 6, 2023

It's an AFC East battle in South Florida as the Dolphins host the Jets on Sunday to close out the regular season. While New York has nothing but pride to play for, Miami can secure a wild-card bid with a win and a Patriots loss or tie to the Bills.

The Dolphins will be looking for revenge after losing the first meeting, 40-17 in Week 5. That game saw a quarterback matchup between Zach Wilson and Skylar Thompson, but it was the Jets' running game that did most of the damage, including five touchdowns on the ground. Rookie Breece Hall was the star, accounting for almost 200 yards of total offense as they produced five rushing touchdowns. Even with that loss, the Dolphins have won 10 of the last 13 in this divisional rivalry.

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New York (7-9) was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week after losing 23-6 on the road to Seattle, which was led by former Jets quarterback Geno Smith. The team's second-round pick in 2013 who spent his first four seasons in New York (12-18 as the starter), Smith threw a pair of touchdowns as the Jets' offense managed just 279 yards. Mike White turned the ball over three times (2 INTs, lost fumble) and completed half of his passes (23 of 46) for 240 yards. Ty Johnson was the leading rusher with 46 yards on eight carries. The fifth straight loss not only ended any chances of making the postseason, but it also guaranteed another losing season and pretty much erased any good feelings there were generated by the Jets' 6-3 start entering the Week 10 bye.

Miami (8-8) also has lost five in a row after falling 23-21 in Foxborough to New England last Sunday. Teddy Bridgewater was solid as the starter, but he got hurt and threw a costly pick-six before getting replaced by Thompson. The Dolphins' defense did a good job liming the Patriots (249 yards, three sacks, 3.6 ypc allowed), but their offense struggled to run the ball (3.2 ypc), didn't have any explosive plays (longest gain was a 25-yard completion), and turned it over twice (2 INTs). The loss dropped Miami's playoff odds to 41 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.

New York (7-9) at Miami (8-8)

Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Dolphins -3
Tickets: As low as $97 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Playoff possibilities
The Jets are already eliminated, so they are just playing for pride, the opportunity to make one more impression on the coaching staff (or an audition for another team if they are a pending free agent), and draft position. Depending on how the other games go, the best-case scenario for the Jets (if you are OK with taking another loss) would be the No. 10 pick, but chances are they will wind up closer to the middle of the round. Meanwhile, the Dolphins still have a shot at that final wild card even though they have lost five in a row. Miami needs to win on Sunday and for Buffalo to beat or tie New England. Miami could also get in with a tie, Patriots loss, and Steelers tie or loss. The Bills are a touchdown favorite at home and still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if Kansas City loses at Las Vegas on Saturday. Even with a Chiefs win, the Bills could still force a potential AFC championship game between them to be on a neutral field. Still, since it's a divisional game and Buffalo could essentially eliminate the Patriots with a win, the Dolphins have to like their chances, provided they take care of business at home.

2. Quarterback play
Barring a significant change of events, it appears that the Jets will be in the market for a new starting quarterback this offseason. Zach Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, has been a massive disappointment, and despite the team saying otherwise, I can't see him on this roster in 2023. Mike White hasn't played well lately either, as he has zero touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last three games. He has been hurt (ribs) and aggravated the injury in last week's loss in Seattle. As a result, head coach Robert Saleh announced on Friday morning that Joe Flacco would get the start against Miami with White ruled out. Wilson will be the backup. Flacco, 37 and getting ready to finish up his 15th season in the league, will be making his first start since Week 3. He's completing 58.2 percent of his passes for 902 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Jets will reportedly be down three starting offensive linemen in this game, which is probably a factor in turning back to Flacco, a savvy veteran.

As for the Dolphins, they have their own quarterback concerns due to injuries. There's still no timetable for Tua Tagovailoa to be cleared from his latest concussion, and backup Teddy Bridgewater dislocated the pinky finger on his throwing hand last week and had to be replaced by rookie Skylar Thompson. The seventh-round pick from Kansas State was getting first-team reps in practice this week and appears to be get the call on Sunday. Miami also signed veteran Mike Glennon earlier this week, another indication that Bridgewater may not be able to play. In six games (one start), Thompson has completed 54.1 percent of his pass attempts with one touchdown and three interceptions, but hopefully, the limited experience he has gained throughout the season, including in Week 5 against New York (19-of-33, 166 yds., INT, lost fumble), has better prepared him for this critical game.

3. Run the ball
With quarterback uncertainties on both sides, it only would make sense for both teams to lean more on their running games. The problem is that neither has enjoyed a tremendous amount of success staying grounded this season. The Jets enter this game 25th in the NFL in rushing at 103.0 yards per game with the Dolphins right behind (95.3). In the first meeting back in Week 5, Miami outgained New York on the ground 137-135, but the Jets scored five times while the Dolphins had just two rushing touchdowns. The other difference between then and now is that dynamic rookie Breece Hall led New York with 97 yards on 18 carries, and no one else on the team has been able to replace his big-play ability since he tore his ACL in Week 7. Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight have seen the bulk of the carries following Hall's injury, and each are averaging fewer than four yards per carry.

For Miami, Raheem Mostert went for 113 yards and a score on just 18 carries in the first matchup with the Jets, but the issue for the Dolphins' running game has been consistency. Last week, they managed just 86 yards on 27 carries (3.2 ypc) in the loss at New England. And if Thompson is at quarterback, you know the Jets will focus on stopping the run to try and make the rookie beat them with his arm. One thing that could benefit Thompson and the offense is that the Fins' defense is a top-10 unit against the run (107.1 ypg) and has been even stingier at home (84.7).

Final Analysis

The line for this has gone back and forth throughout the week and currently favors the home team (depending on your source). There's no reason to think that the Jets won't come out motivated to finish the season with a win in a meaningless contest, but it's hard to know what the offense will do with a rusty Flacco at quarterback and a patchwork offensive line protecting the 37-year-old veteran. But if the defense comes out fired up and ready to play, that could be all that's needed given the likelihood that the Dolphins will have a rookie running their offense. I think we'll see an interested New York team that's led by a strong defensive effort (three turnovers perhaps?) and adds to Miami's misery on Sunday.