New Orleans Bowl Prediction: South Alabama's Standout Defense Meets Western Kentucky's High-Powered Offense

Hilltoppers will look to end Conference USA's five-game New Orleans Bowl losing streak to Sun Belt teams.

Author:
Steven Lassan
Publish date:
Dec 20, 2022

College football’s bowl season continues with an intriguing Wednesday late-night matchup in New Orleans between South Alabama and Western Kentucky. The Sun Belt has won five matchups in a row against Conference USA teams in the New Orleans Bowl, but a high-powered Hilltoppers’ offense aims to crack a standout Jaguars’ defense and give Conference USA bragging rights in the Big Easy.

After going 9-5 with a trip to the Conference USA title game last season, Western Kentucky faced a significant reload on offense with the departure of coordinator Zach Kittley, quarterback Bailey Zappe and top receivers Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley. But coach Tyson Helton quickly regrouped the Hilltoppers offensively to a spot among the nation’s best once again, which guided the team to an 8-5 mark in the regular season. Of Western Kentucky’s five losses, three came by seven points or less, including defeats to conference champions UTSA (C-USA) and Troy (Sun Belt). The Hilltoppers are 17-10 over the last two years and have won at least eight games in three of four years under Helton.

South Alabama is a program on the rise under second-year coach Kane Wommack. The former Indiana (and South Alabama) assistant debuted with a 5-7 record last season but guided the team to a 10-2 mark in ’22. Improvement on both sides of the ball has lifted the Jaguars to double-digit wins for the first time since the program moved to the FBS level. With losses by one to UCLA and by four to Troy, South Alabama was not far from an undefeated mark.

Western Kentucky and South Alabama have played just one time previously, with the Jaguars winning 31-24 in ’13. The Hilltoppers are 5-3 all-time in bowl appearances. The Jaguars are 0-2 in postseason treks.

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky (8-5) vs. South Alabama (10-2)

Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 21 at 9 p.m. ET
Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: South Alabama -4
Tickets: As low as $30 on SITickets.com*

When Western Kentucky Has the Ball

The battle between Western Kentucky’s offense and South Alabama’s defense should be one of the better chess matches of the pre-Christmas bowls. Western Kentucky averages 35.8 points a game, while the Jaguars limit teams to 19.4 a contest. Only three teams scored more than 30 points on South Alabama’s defense this year and opposing offenses managed just 4.8 yards a snap.

Quarterback Austin Reed transferred to Western Kentucky after spending 2018-21 at FCS West Florida. The Florida native had a stellar debut in Bowling Green, throwing for 4,247 yards and 36 touchdowns to only 10 picks and rushing for eight more scores. Reed entered the portal at the end of the regular season but opted to return. He’s expected to play on Wednesday night, which is good news for the Hilltoppers considering the backup quarterbacks attempted only 16 throws this year.

Reed doesn’t lack weapons to target, as Western Kentucky has five players with at least 29 catches. Malachi Corley (90 catches for 1,179 yards) is the best of the bunch, while Daewood Davis (63) and Jaylen Hall (59) have combined for 12 touchdowns. Davis declared for the NFL draft, which means more opportunities for Michael Mathison (49 rec.) and Dalvin Smith (29). However, Reed and his receivers face a tough matchup against a South Alabama defense that ranked fourth in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency defense. This unit is paced by all-conference picks in cornerback Darrell Luther Jr. (37 tackles and 5 PBUs) and hybrid safety/linebacker Yam Banks (45 tackles, 5 INTs), as this duo was instrumental in holding 11 of the team’s 12 opponents under 300 passing yards.

In addition to finding passing windows against South Alabama’s tight coverage, Reed could be under more fire up front with two offensive line starters – left tackle Gunner Britton and center Rusty Staats opting to enter the portal. The Hilltoppers have allowed just 14 sacks this season, but the Jaguars have registered 28 and have the personnel to create havoc on Wednesday night.

Western Kentucky won’t run it much (average around 30 rushing attempts a game), but South Alabama’s prowess up front is also on display when it comes to stopping the run (third in the Sun Belt). Kye Robichaux (496 yards) paces the ground attack, but he missed three out of the last four games, opening the door for Davion Ervin-Poindexter and former USC and Nebraska running back Markese Stepp to get more time.

Having Reed in the lineup gives WKU a shot on Wednesday night, but the offense is going to have its hands full against South Alabama’s defense. In addition to the overall success on the stat sheet (limiting opponents to less than 20 points a game), the Jaguars don’t give up big plays and have thrived at getting off the field on third downs and with stops in the red zone.

When South Alabama Has the Ball

A much-improved offense helped South Alabama make the jump from 5-7 in ’21 to 10-2 this year. The Jaguars averaged only 24.9 points a game and 5.2 yards per play last season but increased that to 31.9 points a contest and 5.84 yards a snap this fall. Wommack’s recruiting has paid off here, as two recent additions – quarterback Carter Bradley and running back La’Damian Webb were instrumental in the uptick in production.

South Alabama’s per-game production through the air (258.4) is similar to its ’21 total (256.0), but Bradley has been efficient (64.3 completion percentage), averages 8.0 yards per attempt and ranks fourth among Sun Belt signal-callers in quarterback rating (148.1). Jalen Wayne (56 catches) emerged as the go-to target to replace current Dallas Cowboy Jalen Tolbert, with Caullin Lacy (58) and Devin Voisin (53) forming a talented trio on the outside. Western Kentucky finished second in Conference USA in pass efficiency defense, but the lineup could be shuffled after cornerback Kahlef Hailassie entered the NFL draft and safety Talique Allen opted to enter the portal.

An inconsistent offensive line and sluggish production out of the ground game hindered South Alabama’s offense last season, but the arrival of Webb and improved play up front took things up a notch this fall. The Jaguars averaged only 111.4 yards a game and 3.1 yards per carry last year but those numbers have jumped to 4.2 a touch and 166 a contest in ’22. Webb battled injuries late in November and still reached 1,017 yards (just the second time a player in program history reached that mark) and totaled 13 scores. Western Kentucky showed vulnerability against the run in the regular season by surrendering 155.9 yards a game, and second-leading tackler Derrick Smith (90 stops) declared for the draft.

The Hilltoppers did catch a break on defense when JaQues Evans (eight sacks) opted to return to the team from the portal. However, as mentioned above, South Alabama’s improved line (just 22 sacks allowed) will make life difficult for the WKU pass rush. The Hilltoppers held opponents to 23.5 points a game and paced C-USA in the fewest yards per play allowed (5.24). Takeaways (30 forced turnovers) is one area Western Kentucky’s defense has especially thrived in, and a couple of turnovers to get the ball back to Reed is a winning formula against a South Alabama team that doesn’t want to get into a high-scoring affair.

Final Analysis

Which style wins out on Wednesday night? Offensively, South Alabama will aim to control the line of scrimmage and time of possession with Webb leading the way on the ground. The defense has been a standout group all year but could bend a little to a high-powered Western Kentucky offense between the 20s and hold up in the red zone. Reed's return gives the Hilltoppers a chance to win this one, but some of the other early departures could be massive against a South Alabama team expected to be at full strength. Look for Webb to find running room on the ground, and Bradley connects on a couple of big plays through the air. The Hilltoppers will land a few punches against the Jaguars' defense, but this group steps up in the second half, lifting the program to its first bowl victory and an 11-win season.