National Championship Prediction: Underdog TCU, Repeat-Seeking Georgia Meet on Monday Night

College football's 2022-23 season is down to its final game, as TCU and Georgia are set to meet in the CFB Playoff National Championship in SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Jan. 9. The Bulldogs are making their second consecutive trip to the national title game and have a shot at history on Monday night. With a win, coach Kirby Smart's squad will become the first program to go back-to-back since Alabama accomplished that feat in 2011-12. TCU began the '22 season as a longshot pick to make the CFB Playoff and was forecasted by most to finish in the bottom half of the Big 12. But behind the leadership of first-year coach Sonny Dykes and improvement on both sides of the ball, the Horned Frogs are 60 minutes away from a title. Despite being easily the biggest surprise to reach a national championship in the playoff era, TCU has an excellent chance to ruin Georgia's back-to-back party.

TCU punched its ticket to Inglewood with a thrilling 51-45 victory over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl. The Horned Frogs were more than a touchdown underdog to the Wolverines, but Dykes' team did exactly what it has done all season: They simply found a way to win. TCU generated just enough big plays on offense, returned two interceptions for touchdowns, forced a fumble around the goal line, and stuffed Michigan on a key fourth-and-goal situation. The Horned Frogs have lived a bit on the edge this year by winning nine games by 10 points or less, but the combination of a veteran roster and a standout quarterback in Max Duggan has helped Dykes' team answer the challenge each week. And as a nearly two-touchdown underdog on Monday night, TCU can play loose with nothing to lose and all the pressure on Georgia.

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While TCU is making its first appearance in the CFB Playoff and title game, these trips are becoming an annual occurrence for Georgia. The Bulldogs got revenge for a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game by knocking off the Crimson Tide 33-18 in an all-SEC national championship last year. Despite losing a wealth of defensive talent to the NFL, Smart's team quickly reloaded and emerged as the best team in the nation. The Bulldogs turned in dominant performances against Oregon and Tennessee en route to a perfect 13-0 after a win over LSU in the SEC title game. Similar to TCU, Georgia needed every bit of 60 minutes to win its semifinal. The Bulldogs scored 18 points in the final quarter to rally for a 42-41 victory over Ohio State and advance to the national title. Georgia is 36-3 over the last three seasons.

This is the fifth all-time meeting between Georgia and TCU. The Bulldogs have won all four previous matchups. However, just one (2016 Liberty Bowl) meeting has taken place since 1988. Georgia is 1-1 in trips to the CFB Playoff National Championship. The SEC has won five of the eight titles in the four-team playoff era. TCU is the first team from the Big 12 to reach the national championship in the CFB Playoff era.

CFB Playoff National Championship: No. 3 TCU (13-1) vs. No. 1 Georgia (14-0)

Kickoff: Monday, Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Georgia -12.5
Tickets: As low as $460 on SITickets.com*

When TCU Has the Ball

TCU's high-powered offense had no trouble moving the ball against a top-ranked Michigan defense in last week's win in the Fiesta Bowl. The Horned Frogs averaged seven yards a snap, recorded 488 total yards, and converted 50 percent (8 of 16) on third downs. However, despite finding success against a tough Wolverines group, the task of moving the ball against Georgia is likely to be a little tougher on Monday night. The Bulldogs boast arguably the nation's best defense by limiting teams to just 14.8 points a game and 4.95 yards per snap.

Although Georgia's defense has suffocated its opponents all year, cracks have appeared in the last two matchups. LSU threw for 502 yards in a 50-30 defeat in the SEC title game, and Ohio State torched Smart's secondary for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the Peach Bowl. Heisman finalist and TCU quarterback Max Duggan has been outstanding all season, accounting for 40 overall touchdowns, 3,546 yards through the air, and another 461 on the ground. The senior wasn't at his best in the win over Michigan (14 of 29 for 225 yards and two touchdowns to two picks), but considering the Bulldogs' recent play on the back end, there will be chances to make plays downfield.

Helping TCU's optimism to move the ball through the air is a deep and talented receiving corps anchored by Quentin Johnston. The junior paces the offense with 59 receptions for 1,066 yards and six touchdowns (18.1 yards per catch). His big-play potential downfield or the ability to turn a five-yard catch into a big gain is a tough matchup for Georgia's secondary. But he's not the only playmaker for Duggan on the outside. Taye Barber (36 catches), Derius Davis (37), and Savion Williams (29) should all see targets on Monday night and will have to capitalize to help keep Georgia's defense from keying too much on Johnston. No. 1 cornerback Kelee Ringo had an up-and-down night against Ohio State last week, but the All-SEC cover man won't lack for confidence in coverage.

Entering last week's Fiesta Bowl, how TCU would hold up in the trenches was a key question surrounding the game. Sixty minutes later, the Horned Frogs answered that challenge and then some. The starting five for Dykes more than held their own, leading the way for TCU's ground game to manage 263 yards (6.4 yards per carry) against one of the top-ranked rush defenses in the nation. Led by potential No. 1 overall pick in the '23 NFL Draft Jalen Carter, Georgia's front has been a brick wall when it comes to opposing ground attacks all season. The Bulldogs have not allowed an opponent to top 140 rushing yards through 14 games and are only giving up three yards per carry. Not only will the Horned Frogs have to meet a tougher challenge in the trenches, but the ground game could be missing (or have a limited) Kendre Miller (1,399 yards) at running back. After an injury in the Fiesta Bowl, his status is questionable for Monday night. Emari Demercado (622 yards) is a capable No. 2, but Miller is clearly the team's best option in the backfield and would be missed if he can't go.

After a subpar showing on defense against Ohio State, odds favor a rebound from Georgia. But can the Bulldogs do enough to slow Duggan and Johnston through the air after the Buckeyes and Tigers showed some cracks in the secondary? For Georgia to slow TCU's attack, this unit needs to do a better job up front with the rush and on the back end in coverage. Duggan also can't be allowed to consistently convert third downs with his legs. If the Bulldogs are winning up front and the Horned Frogs are in third-and-long, tackling in space and preventing short gains into big plays is a must.

Related: 5 Reasons Why TCU Will Beat Georgia in the National Championship

When Georgia Has the Ball

Although TCU's offense garners most of the attention as the most explosive group on the field, Georgia isn't too far behind on the stat sheet. The Bulldogs are averaging 39.4 points a game (compared to 41.1 for TCU) and 7.1 yards a snap (6.85 for the Horned Frogs). Under the direction of coordinator Todd Monken, this group doesn't thrive at hitting big plays. Instead, Georgia does a good job of staying on schedule (No. 5 nationally in success rate) and ranks fifth nationally in plays of 10-plus yards and sixth in 20-plus.

The question of TCU's ability to hold up at the line of scrimmage wasn't limited to the offense last week. Significant doubts were raised about the Horned Frogs' ability to slow Michigan's ground game. However, coordinator Joseph Gillespie's group limited the Wolverines to just 185 yards (with 54 coming on one snap). Gillespie's 3-3-5 scheme can be complicated for opposing teams to prepare and make in-game adjustments for. Also, a veteran group has eased the transition for Gillespie and the rest of the TCU defensive staff. Seniors Dylan Horton (DE) and Dee Winters (LB) delivered standout performances in the Fiesta Bowl victory last week and are crucial to slowing Georgia's ground game on Monday night. The Bulldogs have one of the nation's top offensive lines clearing the way for rushers to average 5.5 yards per carry. Kenny McIntosh (779 yards), Daijun Edwards (739) and Kendall Milton (559) are all slated to see time in the backfield on Monday night. TCU gives up around 150 rushing yards a game this season but rose to the occasion against Michigan and at other times this year. The Horned Frogs can't afford to let Georgia control this game at the point of attack.

Quarterback Stetson Bennett had a few shaky moments in the first half of last week's win over Ohio State but delivered when the game was on the line. In the fourth quarter, Bennett connected on 10 of 12 throws for 190 yards and two touchdowns. The former walk-on has been clutch when Georgia needed him to be in the CFB Playoff and has a chance at history to lead the program to back-to-back titles on Monday night. But TCU's secondary (ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in pass efficiency defense) won't make life easy on Bennett.

For TCU to win, it has to stuff the Georgia ground game on early downs and get Bennett into obvious passing situations. The Bulldogs avoid third downs as well as any team in the nation, so winning on first and second down is a must for Gillespie. When Bennett looks to throw, tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey have been his favorite targets all season. Bowers was held in check (four catches for 64 yards) in the Peach Bowl but should be more involved on Monday night. Also, Georgia got a boost from a healthy Adonai Mitchell (three catches for 43 yards) and the emergence of Arian Smith (three catches for 129 yards) last week. In addition to those weapons, Bennett can spread the ball around to McIntosh out of the backfield or Kearis Jackson, Dominick Blaylock or Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint in the receiving corps. Bowers' running mate at tight end Darnell Washington is questionable after suffering an injury versus the Buckeyes.

Related: 5 Reasons Why Georgia Will Beat TCU in the National Championship

Final Analysis

Oddsmakers, college football experts and the general public aren't giving TCU much of a chance on Monday night. So what would a path to victory look like for the Horned Frogs? Offensively, this team has to win again in the trenches, connect on a few big plays, and score touchdowns in the red zone. On defense, TCU has to follow a similar formula by forcing a couple of takeaways and winning the battle on early downs to get the Bulldogs into obvious passing downs. If Georgia takes control of this game early in the trenches, the Horned Frogs will have trouble keeping this one close in the fourth quarter. But if TCU holds early and keeps this one within striking distance, the storybook season just might have one more magical finish in store. Whether it's TCU's unprecedented run or Georgia's run to a repeat, history is on the line in California on Monday night.

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