Music City Bowl Prediction: Iowa and Kentucky Stage a Postseason Rematch

For the second year in a row, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Kentucky Wildcats will be hooking up in the postseason after they met last January in the VRBO Citrus Bowl, seeing the Big Blue come out with a 20-17 win. Fast-forward 364 days and these two will be back at each other again in Nashville in the Music City Bowl.

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Want more irony? Last year was just the first-ever meeting between the two programs and they also were connected to each other earlier this season, though this time for off-the-field reasons.

On Oct. 22, the Hawkeyes found themselves at 3-4 after a 54-10 absolute drubbing by Ohio State. Ironically, Iowa fans were looking at the success that the Kentucky Wildcats were having and clamoring for former Hawkeye alum Mark Stoops to be their next head coach.

Stoops' reaction? (I'm paraphrasing here) “I don't want the Iowa job. I'm the coach of Kentucky and I like it."

But from that point on, the Hawkeyes returned to form, going 4-1 down the stretch including impressive wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

On the other side, Kentucky's regular season was like a kid pressing buttons in an elevator, The Wildcats started 4-0, including an impressive win over Florida. They went 3-5 from there including terrible losses to Tenessee and Vanderbilt (really?) but also beating Mississippi State and playing Georgia tough while holding the defending national champs to just 16 points.

TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa (7-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 12 p.m. ET
Where: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
TV: ABC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Iowa -2.5
Tickets: As low as $21 on SITickets.com*

When Iowa Has the Ball

If you've heard a lot of hype about how this may be the lowest-scoring bowl game ever, the hype might be right. The Hawkeyes are offensively impared to begin with (averaging 17.9 points a game, good for 122nd in the FBS), but now they will play without their starting quarterback Spencer Petras too. On top of that, backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal, so now the offense falls to third-stringer Joe Labas. The only positive thing about starting their No. 3 QB is that there is no tape on Labas for the Wildcats to study prior to the game.

Look for three key players to emerge in this one… IF Iowa's offensive has any success moving hte ball at all, of course. Freshman running back Kaleb Johnson will be a centerpiece, coming off a 16-carry, 109-yard performance against Nebraska (6.8 ypc). He also had a 200-yard game in the 24-3 win at Purdue, so he can tote the rock, especially as the season has gone along. Also, this being "Tight End U" look for Sam LaPorta (53 catches, 601 yards) and Luke Lachey (25 catches, 362 yards) to be safety valves for Labas, who will certainly need them. Wide receivers Nico Ragiani (32 catches) and Arland Bruce (19 catches) were the only wideouts with double-digit catches this season, but getting them some passes won't be easy.

LaPorta has been the leading receiver in seven of the Hawkeyes games this season, while Lachey has been the leading receiver in two others.

When Kentucky Has the Ball

I think we can all expect the unexpected here. Quarterback Will Levis has opted out, as has running back Christopher Rodriguez Jr., who led the team in rushing. His backup Kavosiey Smoke is in the transfer portal. Destin Wade will start the Music City Bowl at QB and fourth-string running back Jutahn McClain will start behind him. The Wildcats also fired offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello, and it looks like veteran assistant Vince Marrow will be calling plays. In other words, expect the unexpected.

Wade is a true freshman who has yet to play this season but will get the start at quarterback over Kaiya Sheron and Duece Hogan. It is presumed that Wade got the assignment due to his dual-threat abilities. So look for a lot of run-pass options and sprint-out passes from Wade and his right arm. Another reason for Wade getting the start? The Cats have given up 42 sacks on the season and they've probably gotten sick of seeing their pockets collapse, so bring on the dude who can avoid pass rushers.

No, no, there is no truth to the rumor that the Iowa defense has outscored the Iowa offense this season. But it IS true that the Hawkeyes are second nationally with five defensive touchdowns, three scoop-n-scores, and two pick-sixes. They might need a defensive or special teams score to win this one. I mean, that's how bad their offense is. Look for them to sell out to get a blocked kick and pressure the UK quarterback into some mistakes.

Final Analysis

The over-under on this game has been set at 31 points, the lowest total in college football history, besting the Iowa-Northwestern game from this October (31.5). The point total from that game ended up being a combined 23. There is no reason to sugarcoat this any longer: this will indeed be a low-scoring, field goal-fest.

By the way, the over-under on safeties is 2.5. Bet the over.

Prediction: Kentucky 11, Iowa 9

— Written by Eric Sorenson, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network. He is a college football, college baseball and college hockey addict... and writer. Follow him on Twitter @Stitch_Head.

*Price as of publication.