San Francisco vs. Arizona Prediction: NFC West Rivals Meet in Mexico City for MNF

Will Mexico City provide an international boost to a Cardinals team desperate to get back in the NFC West division race?

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Nov 19, 2022

The San Francisco 49ers play the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City on "Monday Night Football" looking to leave with the NFC West solidly in hand. Just a half-game behind the idle Seattle Seahawks, a San Francisco win would give them the division lead by virtue of their 27-7 head-to-head victory over Seattle in Week 2.

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On paper, the 49ers' offense should be one of the best in the NFL after the acquisition of former All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey. But it’s the Cardinals who scored more points last week, backup quarterback Colt McCoy leading the team to 27 in their most complete victory of the season over NFC West rival Los Angeles. That kept Arizona out of last place in the division but it’s a far cry from where the Cardinals were at this point a year ago: 8-2 and the NFL surprise of the season.

This time around, the only surprises are which backups get to start for a Cardinals outfit hammered by injuries. Among the players hobbled for Monday night’s contest, if they’ll even play at all, is starting quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring). Additionally, tight end Zach Ertz suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. They were among the 10 players that appeared on the Friday injury report, the latest hurdle for a team whose 2022 has been marked by sluggish starts and inconsistency on both sides of the ball.

Can the 49ers come in and take care of business south of the border? Their dynamic offense looked a little shaky last week in a 22-16 squeaker over that other Los Angeles team, the Chargers, going just 2-for-5 in the red zone for the second time in three weeks.

Can quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and company cash in on their opportunities on an international stage? Or will the Cardinals find a way, at 4-6, to drag themselves back into the division race?

Monday Night Football: San Francisco (5-4) vs. Arizona (4-6)

Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 21 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Estadio Azteca (Mexico City)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: 49ers -8
Tickets: As low as $270 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Who will play quarterback for the Cardinals?
Murray’s hamstring still leaves him iffy for Monday night, as head coach Kliff Kingsbury said on Friday “we’ll see how he feels” after the signal-caller got in a limited practice session. That could leave the 36-year-old McCoy starting a second straight game after his impressive 26-for-37, 238-yard performance last Sunday.

What McCoy brought to the team was a disciplined approach, a turnover-free game manager who utilized DeAndre Hopkins well while leaning on running back James Conner in the red zone (69 yards, 2 TDs). The offense did all the little things right, including going 3-for-3 on fourth down and converting both their goal-to-go opportunities.

That leaves even Murray totally comfortable if McCoy, nursing his own injury (knee), needs to step in once again.

“[Colt] has been around so much football, been around so many great coaches, dealt with a lot of players, schemes, and he’s just a really intelligent football player, and a great friend,” Murray said this week. “Kind of has that father figure vibe to him. All the guys look to him, trust him. To have him in my corner, there is nothing more I could ask from him.”

There’s just one problem McCoy has to face: the 49ers’ No. 1-ranked defense. Third in sacks per pass attempt and second against the run, their front line is going to put more pressure on McCoy to deliver under center. And with Hopkins hampered a bit, options are limited for him; expect Rondale Moore to be the main target, who racked up 94 receiving yards against the Rams.

As much as Murray has been criticized for his lack of preparation, the added mobility alone would give the Cardinals a solid upgrade here. It’s hard to see them winning if he stays on the bench.

2. Can George Kittle have a breakout game?
With Christian McCaffrey’s arrival on the scene, it’s easy for Kittle to fall down the pecking order. So many mouths to feed in this 49ers offense, along with the adjustment from Trey Lance to Garoppolo, has left Kittle facing a down year: just 29 catches and 340 yards at the season’s halfway point.

But the Cardinals have been a team San Francisco's tight end has feasted on as of late: 10 catches, 193 yards and a touchdown in his last two games against them. One of the weaker NFL defenses this year, Arizona ranks just 23rd against the pass and has cracked repeatedly against tight ends. Just look at the stat lines this year from some of the league’s best:

Travis Kelce: 8 catches, 121 yards, TD in Week 1
Darren Waller: 6 catches, 50 yards, TD in Week 2
Dallas Goedert: 8 catches, 95 yards in Week 5
Noah Fant: Leading receiver against them in Week 6 (6 catches, 45 yards
Juwan Johnson: 2 TDs in Week 7
Noah Fant & Will Dissly: 120 combined yards in Week 9
Tyler Higbee: 8 catches, 73 yards last week

Considering Kittle’s All-Pro history, it’s a prime opportunity for him to add his name to that list. The question is simply whether Garoppolo is willing to get him the football. In the past two weeks, he’s gotten just seven targets to McCaffrey’s 15 as the running back has increased his offensive production.

3. McCaffrey, part II?
Speaking of McCaffrey, he’s got the rare opportunity to face a team suiting up for two different organizations in the same season. He slashed the Cardinals for 108 total yards in a 26-16 loss in Week 4 as a member of the Carolina Panthers.

Can he find that magic formula again? Last week was an adjustment for him on the ground as Elijah Mitchell’s return from injured reserve allowed for both running backs to platoon. Mitchell gained 89 yards, McCaffrey 38, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel pulled some end-arounds for 27 as the 49ers’ offensive game plan revolved around balancing their many weapons.

But McCaffrey’s success against the Cardinals should leave San Francisco leaning heavily on him. With the Panthers, he rushed for 153 yards in 2019 (including a 76-yard TD), then 95 yards last season with an additional 66 receiving yards. The one-man wrecking crew should show no signs of stopping, even against a team that ranks ninth in the NFL against the run.

Final Analysis

McCoy appeared to rally the Cardinals last week, just the second time all season they’ve held the lead at the half. But despite the Rams’ status as defending Super Bowl champions, the 49ers’ current makeup on both sides of the ball is a whole different level of competition altogether.

It’s hard to see the Cardinals keeping pace on a neutral site. A loss all but ends their playoff hopes at 4-7 while turning the focus, and the questions, toward the future of head coach Kliff Kingsbury.