Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis Prediction: Steelers and Colts Wrap Up Week 12 on MNF

Two proud franchises in rebuilding mode meet on "Monday Night Football."

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Nov 26, 2022

The Pittsburgh Steelers are on their second starting quarterback of the season. The Indianapolis Colts are on their second head coach. That alone should tell you all you need to know about two franchises deep in rebuilding mode as they prepare to do battle on ESPN’s "Monday Night Football."

Related: Expert Picks for Every Week 12 NFL Game

Barring a miracle, neither organization is playoff-bound this year. The Steelers, sitting at 3-7, appear destined to have a losing record for the first time in Mike Tomlin’s 16 years as head coach. The Colts, sitting at 4-6-1, are three games behind the Tennessee Titans for the AFC South lead with seven games remaining.

But don’t let their records fool you. These are proud organizations with rich histories in the sport; both have been playing hard despite coming up short. The Colts took the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles down to the wire last week, losing by just one point, while the Steelers scored a season-high 30 points in a loss to the Bengals.

Who will be more motivated as we head into Monday night?

Monday: Night Football: Pittsburgh (3-7) at Indianapolis (4-6-1)

Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 28 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Colts -2.5
Tickets: As low as $53 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Can Kenny Pickett take care of the football?
Pickett did what was needed against the Bengals despite a losing effort; his 265 passing yards were the second-highest total of a promising rookie year. But the big number lately has been zero; he remains without a turnover in the two games the Steelers have played since the bye.

The Colts' defense is certainly out to change that, ranked fourth in the league in total yards allowed and sixth against the pass. Pickett understands it’s a tougher hill to climb on Monday than in recent weeks.

“They don’t have a lot of breakdown in coverages or explosive plays,” Pickett explained about the Colts' scheme this week. “They do a good job of keeping a lid on it. We gotta be detailed, protect the football. I gotta make good decisions in scoring position and I think everything else will take care of itself.”

Give that Colts defense credit; they forced two fumbles against the Eagles, a team with the league’s best turnover margin at plus-12. Can they keep up the momentum against the league’s other Pennsylvania team, playing a rookie QB still learning the ropes?

2. Matt Ryan, Act I or Act II?
Since getting reinstated as starting quarterback after former head coach Frank Reich was let go, Ryan’s second act in Indianapolis has been better. After fumbling the ball 11 times in his first seven games, Ryan’s been turnover-free in his last two, averaging a healthy-ish 7.25 yards per attempt.

The re-emergence of running back Jonathan Taylor (231 rushing yards, 2 TDs in the last two games) has certainly helped. But Ryan is also making smarter decisions and getting more of the offense involved; he made completions to seven different receivers against the Eagles.

T.J. Watt and the vaunted Steelers defense would typically have something to say about that. But Pittsburgh has struggled overall on that side of the football, ranking just 28th in total yards allowed and a shocking 31st (272.1 ypg) against the pass. Opportunity knocks for Ryan and the Colts to score some points while continuing to develop their twin 25-year-old receiving threats: Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr.

3. Can the Steelers stay in touch early?
Pittsburgh has had a nasty habit of falling behind early. Not only have the Steelers given up a whopping 144 points in the first half, but they're even worse on the road, outscored 87-54 in five games. For a young team with a limited offensive ceiling, it’s important for them to stay within striking distance so their best offensive player, running back Najee Harris, can remain the centerpiece of the offensive game plan.

The Colts, meanwhile, have given up 88 points in the second quarter this season, giving teams an opening to establish control. They’ll need to tighten the reins to make sure this Cinderella doesn’t seize an opportunity on their home turf.

Final Analysis

The Colts have an additional level of pride on the line: they haven’t won against the Steelers since Peyton Manning was their quarterback in 2008. While Matt Ryan doesn’t feel like the answer, he also feels like just enough when paired up against Kenny Pickett.

This young Steelers team is maturing faster than anyone expected; once again, Tomlin has been underestimated as a head coach. It just won’t be enough against a Colts team that has dramatically underachieved to this point in 2022. Say this much about inexperienced interim head coach Jeff Saturday, who was in his prime as a Colts player the last time they won in this rivalry: he gets this team revved up to play.