New England vs. Arizona: Patriots Look to Turn Things Around Against Cardinals on MNF

Week 14 ends with the reeling Cardinals against a Patriots offense looking to get back in rhythm.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Dec 10, 2022

The New England Patriots enter Week 14’s "Monday Night Football" matchup in must-win mode against the Arizona Cardinals. Sitting at 6-6, the Patriots are just a game out of the seventh and final spot in a tightening AFC playoff race.

New England holds the tiebreaker over the team they’re chasing, the New York Jets, and by Monday night could have a chance to rise above them. But plenty of land mines for the Patriots remain, including games against the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, 8-4 Miami Dolphins, and current No. 1 seed Buffalo Bills. Beating up on the 4-8 Cardinals feels like a must.

Related: Expert Picks for Every Week 14 NFL Game

As for Arizona? The Cardinals are just playing out the string, a string of mediocrity this season after losing four of their past five games. Last year’s red-hot, top-10 offensive scheme has slipped to 20th in the NFL; quarterback Kyler Murray appears to have regressed after signing a five-year, $230.5 million extension during the offseason. From a six-game suspension for DeAndre Hopkins to running back James Conner and Murray battling injuries, the Cardinals have struggled to simply keep their best players on the field.

It all leads to finger-pointing at head coach Kliff Kingsbury, on the hot seat after going 5-12 in his last 17 regular-season games along with a first-round playoff exit. Can his team turn around an NFC-worst 1-6 record at home with an upset against the Patriots? Or will New England continue its recent dominance against Arizona, where the Pats have won seven of their last eight matchups?

Monday Night Football: New England (6-6) at Arizona (4-8)

Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Patriots -1.5
Tickets: As low as $66 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Can the Cardinals get off to a better start?
Part of Arizona’s problem this season is their inability to score early. An average of just 2.4 points in the first quarter ranks 30th in the NFL; only Carolina and Houston have performed worse. The Cardinals have trailed at the half in nine of their 12 games this season, going 2-7 in those contests.

“At some point, it just has to click for us,” head coach Kliff Kingsbury said earlier this year, when the Cardinals started out scoreless in the first quarter through their first five contests. “I don’t think there’s any magic answers except guys showing up, being ready to go, and not regressing back to that once we get it figured out.”

Since then, the Cardinals have picked it up a bit. But they still have a total of just two first-quarter touchdowns in 12 games, getting outscored 61-29 over a full season. That’s one heck of a hole to climb out of every week.

To be fair, New England isn’t much better, scoring just 2.7 points in the first quarter (28th in the NFL). The difference is the Pats haven’t trailed after the first quarter in a little over a month; in fact, it’s happened just three times all year. Head coach Bill Belichick is known for running a tight ship and the Patriots, despite a struggling offense, have kept pace early and cut down the scoring.

Speaking of that offense…

2. Will Mac Jones and the Patriots get back on the same page offensively?
It feels like getting off to a hot start is imperative for the Patriots after infighting during a 24-10 loss last Thursday to the Buffalo Bills. After struggling for just 195 passing yards, just days removed from his best game of the year (382 yards), Jones was caught on the sidelines yelling “Throw the (insert swear word here) ball!”

The end result against the Bills was 355 net yards but only 10 points; 20.8 points per game this season ranks just 20th in the NFL. Criticism has been increasing around offensive coordinator Matt Patricia, the former Pats defensive coordinator who was placed in this role after Josh McDaniels was hired over the offseason by the Las Vegas Raiders.

Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph turned up the heat on Patricia and Joe Judge this week, who are combining to call the plays for the Pats.

“It’s a very conservative pass game – lot of screens, all kind of screens. It’s how a defensive guy would call offensive plays, right?” Joseph said. “‘Let’s not turn the ball over, let’s get four yards a play, and let’s try to burn clock.’ That’s what they’re doing and that’s what he’s going to do on Monday night.”

Feels like a dangerous game for an inferior team to play, right? Belichick has made a career of turning bulletin board material into winning motivation. What’s more, there appears to be a definitive movement within this organization to get more aggressive this week.

Watch out for Hunter Henry, who had a season-high 63 yards receiving against the Vikings; the Cardinals' defense is notoriously weak on tight ends. And arguably the Patriots’ best offensive player, running back Rhamondre Stevenson, has been making the most of the screens he does catch. His 56 receptions lead the team and will remain in a key pass-catching role with wide receiver Jakobi Meyers likely to sit this one out (concussion protocol).

3. Can Kyler Murray pierce through the Patriots' defense?
Murray’s year has been rocked by inconsistency. That said, the Patriots have struggled against signal-callers as mobile as Murray this season: they’re 0-3 against Justin Fields of the Bears, Lamar Jackson of the Ravens and Josh Allen of the Bills. That trio ranks first, second and fourth in the NFL, respectively, in rushing yards by a quarterback.

Can Murray keep up the trend? He was effective on the ground in his return from injury last week in a losing effort: 56 yards, eight yards per carry, and a rushing touchdown. But Murray has also been easier to defend with a defensive front due to some mistakes through the air (six interceptions in his last seven starts).

Whether Murray has his top target, DeAndre Hopkins, could be key to opening up the ground game. Hopkins was suffering through an illness this week but was back to full participation in Friday’s practice, a crucial add with tight end Zach Ertz out for the season with a torn ACL and wide receiver Greg Dortch nursing a thumb injury.

“He catches everything,” Belichick said of Hopkins this week. “[He] has great hands, and he’s long so he’s never covered. Even if he’s covered, there’s a place where the ball can be that he can get it and still make the catch.”

The Pats' secondary has been bent the past two weeks against top receivers: Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs have combined for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Will Hopkins be the next to break them?

Final Analysis

On paper, you might argue the Cardinals have more talent than the Patriots; it’s a tough matchup for the way New England’s team is built. But something has just simply been off with Arizona all season. The Cards dig themselves early holes, then try and fight out of them too late while the offensive rhythm varies wildly from drive to drive.

The Pats still have a real shot at the playoffs despite a more dysfunctional season than normal. But Belichick is a Hall of Fame coach for a reason; expect him to pull the team together this week and shore up an inconsistent offensive scheme for a game he needs to have.