Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction: AFC Big Dogs Battle for Playoff Positioning on MNF

The Buffalo Bills could be a win away in this 2022 NFL season from securing the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If all goes well, they’re a month away from their goal of wresting the AFC championship away from the Cincinnati Bengals, earning their first Super Bowl appearance since January 1994.

Related: Expert Picks for Every Week 17 NFL Game

But right now, that title belongs to the Bengals heading into their "Monday Night Football" matchup, giving running back Joe Mixon an opportunity to do a little trash-talking.

“At the end of the day … we the big dog of the AFC and that’s just what it is,” Mixon explained Saturday. “For anything to happen, it goes through us.”

On paper, Mixon is absolutely right. The Bengals enter on an AFC-best seven-game win streak and sit just a game behind Buffalo in the playoff race. Wins Monday night and the following week, plus one Kansas City loss, would swing the tiebreakers back the Bengals' way and make all roads to the Super Bowl run through them – not frigid, snowy Buffalo.

For the Bills, this game brings them one step closer to clinching their all-important cold-weather advantage. A win, their seventh straight, and a Chiefs loss would leave the top spot in the playoffs clinched heading into a regular-season finale where they would breathe a sigh of relief. It could also knock Cincinnati out of the lead in its division, forcing the Bengals to play every playoff game on the road.

Both sides are clearly aware of the stakes, and their matchup makes history: 23 wins combined ties the most for any two "Monday Night Football" teams since the league started playing the weekday prime-time game in 1970.

“I think it’s going to be the game of the year,” said Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd earlier this week. “If you miss this game, you’re not a true football fan… it’s going to be electrifying.”

Monday Night Football: Buffalo (12-3) at Cincinnati (11-4)

Kickoff: Monday, Jan. 2 at 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Bills -1.5
Tickets: As low as $249 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow
Two of the premier quarterbacks in the game will match up for the first time in their NFL careers. Both men rank inside the top five in the AFC for every major passing category: completions, attempts, yards, passer rating, touchdowns, and yards per attempt.

But as incredible as these superstars have been, week in and week out, there’s one important category we can’t leave off the list: interceptions. The duo threw a total of four last week alone, and in Burrow’s case, a pick-six sparked a New England Patriots near-comeback after starting the game down 22-0.

Both players are the same age (26) and share the same offseason quarterback guru in Jordan Palmer. That’s led to a growing friendship between the two, spilling over into the public eye this week as each side talked about mutual respect.

“It’s been super impressive to watch and see his whole story,” Allen said this week. “Going to Ohio State, transferring out, spending two years at LSU, and arguably having one of the greatest seasons ever in college history. He’s got a heckuva story.”

“We’re friends,” Burrow added. “We’ve hung out quite a bit. Everybody that watches Josh, there’s no secret about why he’s so good. He’s fun to watch, he runs around. He makes plays. He makes throws that nobody else can make. He’s just an exciting player, a great player that it’s going to be fun to go up against him.”

Expect both players to put up Pro Bowl-worthy performances. But if either side has an edge, I’d lean toward Burrow. Allen has had an awkward history the past two months of throwing a few ugly interceptions in the red zone, costing his team in back-to-back weeks in losses against the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings. Burrow, despite four interceptions over the last three weeks, has been a touch more consistent overall.

A big key is how the Bengals' offensive line recovers from right tackle La'el Collins’ season-ending ACL injury last week. After allowing 29 sacks during the first eight games, that number’s dropped to 10 during this seven-game win streak. Can a middling Buffalo defensive line get consistent pressure without star Von Miller, out for the season with his own ACL tear?

2. Which defense can make a big play?
The Bengals are hoping a 50/50 shot goes their way for star defensive end Sam Hubbard, a game-time decision after suffering a calf injury last month against Tampa Bay. His 6.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and 50 quarterback pressures make him one of the few capable of breaking through and making Allen’s night difficult.

While both teams have 20-plus takeaways this season, the Bills have had just one interception in the last six games. The Bengals (three) aren’t much better during their recent hot streak, allowing at least 211 net passing yards during each of the last six weeks.

So, who could break through on either side and produce a takeaway that makes the difference? For the Bills, all eyes are on defensive end A.J. Epenesa, trying to step up in Miller's absence: he has three sacks and a forced fumble in the last four games alone. Expect fellow lineman Greg Rousseau to also make an impact.

The Bengals, meanwhile, hope Hubbard returns at an A-plus level to excel alongside Trey Hendrickson (six sacks). It’s a team that believes their defensive unit, while still allowing points, has kicked it up a notch over the past two months of play.

But the Bills' defense also comes in motivated after a few ill-advised comments from Boyd earlier in the week.

“It’s kind of basic,” he explained in detailing the Bills’ scheme. “They don’t do too much disguising – it’s kind of straightforward, they don’t do all the trickery things that we’ve seen a lot from defenses. But again man, they playing us. Every team kind of prepares differently for us.”

We’ll see if the Bills think that bulletin-board material provides a little additional motivation.

3. Special teams
There’s always something funky that happens in a close game like this one. Keep an eye on the confidence of kicker Evan McPherson, whose honeymoon with the Bengals has taken a hit after another missed extra point and off-target field goal last weekend against the Patriots. His four missed PATs overall lead the AFC, while five missed field goals have already tied last year’s total with two games left on the schedule.

Tyler Bass from the Bills has been exceptional but ran into his own set of problems last week. He missed an extra point and a 38-yard field goal to leave his team down 10-6 at the end of the first half last weekend against the Bears. But Bass also has gone six-for-six on field goal attempts in a single game this year, tying a team record he shares with Steve Christie.

Final Analysis

Two of the AFC’s three best teams should be expected to go punch for punch throughout the night. While both defenses are exceptional, it’s easy to see the offenses taking center stage with all major weapons on both sides healthy. Keep an eye on wild cards like Mixon and Bills running back Devin Singletary, key options for pass-heavy teams to switch it up when necessary. Mixon piled up 108 total rushing and receiving yards last week while Singletary quietly had his first 100-yard performance of the year against the Bears.

In the end, I’d expect it to be a final drive type of game, conditions in which Burrow has shined throughout his young career. In a toss-up like this one, go with the quarterback who’s already proven he can get to the promised land instead of the one who’s been stopped just short.

As Mixon said, the Bengals are still the “big dogs” based on last year’s performance. Buffalo is going to have to come in and take it from them.

Prediction: Bengals 34, Bills 31

— Written by Tom Bowles, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @NASCARBowles.

*Price as of publication.