Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction: Undefeated Wolverines and Buckeyes Meet in High-Stakes Showdown

This year's edition of "The Game" will determine more than just the Big Ten East champion.

Author:
Steven Lassan
Publish date:
Nov 25, 2022

The Game. It doesn't get any better than this, as undefeated Michigan meets undefeated Ohio State on Saturday in arguably the biggest game of the 2022 college football season, at least to this point. The stakes are always high when the Buckeyes and Wolverines get together for their annual rivalry. But with both teams sitting at 11-0, Saturday's game is going to have major implications on the Big Ten title race, CFB Playoff picture, and potentially the Heisman Trophy outcome.

In addition to the high stakes for this year's meeting, revenge is also on the mind of Ohio State. The Buckeyes were pushed around and embarrassed in last year's 42-27 loss in Ann Arbor. And it wasn't just the fact Michigan won — the Wolverines physically dominated at the line of scrimmage. Motivation and a willingness to change the narrative after the '21 showing are certainly on the mind for Ohio State this Saturday. The Buckeyes have rolled to an 11-0 start behind quarterback C.J. Stroud and a high-powered offense, while the defense is much improved under new coordinator Jim Knowles. Ohio State has won all 11 of its games by 11 points or more but had to sweat more than anticipated in last week's victory (43-30) over Maryland.

For the most part, weekly dominance has been a theme for Michigan in '22. The Wolverines crushed Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn in non-conference play and won five Big Ten games by 20 or more points. Just two matchups (Illinois and Maryland) were decided by fewer than 10 points this year. Even if it loses this game on Saturday, Michigan still has a viable path to the playoff as a one-loss team. However, coach Jim Harbaugh's squad would like to avoid that scenario by beating Ohio State for the second year in a row and winning the Big Ten title to get to 13-0.

Michigan holds a 59-52-6 series edge over Ohio State. However, the Buckeyes have won 15 of 17 against the Wolverines, and Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000.

No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State

Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 26 at Noon ET
TV: FOX
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Ohio State -7.5
Tickets: As low as $403 on SITickets.com*

When Michigan Has the Ball

Don't expect Michigan's game plan to look much different than what Jim Harbaugh and his staff used against Ohio State last season. In last year's win, the Wolverines pounded the Buckeyes with 41 runs to just 20 passes. Of course, Ohio State's defense and how it responds to the test of physicality at the line of scrimmage is going to play a huge role in how this game plays out. Not only is establishing the run and line of scrimmage the preferred method of attack for Harbaugh, but if the Wolverines can get their ground game on track, that game plan or approach also can help keep Ohio State's high-powered offense on the sideline.

It's no secret what Michigan will try to do on offense on Saturday. But there's an x-factor looming: What is the status of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards? Corum left last week's game against Illinois with a knee injury, while Edwards was banged up in the Week 11 victory over Nebraska and did not play last Saturday. Corum is among the nation's top offensive players this season, rushing for 1,457 yards and 18 touchdowns. Edwards has chipped in 471 yards and four scores over 70 attempts. If one or both can't go, the focus shifts to CJ Stokes (268 yards), Isaiah Gash (101), and Tavierre Dunlap. Regardless of which running back handles the bulk of the workload, Michigan's offensive line is among the best in college football. Ohio State's front was pushed around last season, so there's little doubt this unit has the motivation to stuff the run better on Saturday. The Buckeyes are limiting teams to just 3.1 yards per carry and 107.9 rushing yards a game this year.

The battle in the trenches and how effective Michigan is at establishing the run will play a huge role in determining the outcome of this game. Ohio State should aim to get the Wolverines into long-yardage or obvious passing downs to put the pressure on quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The sophomore has been solid in his first year as the starter, throwing for 1,952 yards and 14 touchdowns and completing 66.8 percent of his passes. McCarthy's mobility (213 rushing yards) is another x-factor for Ohio State to account for. Although the sophomore has been solid, the offense has struggled to connect on big plays in conference games (just two of 40-plus yards). Talent at receiver isn't a problem with Ronnie Bell (641 yards), Cornelius Johnson (300), and Roman Wilson (272). The Buckeyes rank seventh in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense and have been vulnerable at times to big plays.

New coordinator Jim Knowles has brought significant improvement to Ohio State's defense. This unit is limiting teams to 16.9 points a game and just 4.5 yards per play after giving up 22.8 points a contest and 5.3 yards a snap last year. The goal of the Buckeyes' defense is pretty simple on Saturday: Stop the run and force Michigan to take to the air to win.

When Ohio State Has the Ball

Ohio State's high-powered offense enters Saturday's game averaging 46.5 points a game and 7.4 yards per play. Outside of a messy weather day at Northwestern, only one team (Notre Dame) held this offense under 43 points in a game. With the depth of weapons at running back and receiver, along with one of the nation's top players in quarterback C.J. Stroud, keeping this group in check is a tough assignment for Michigan.

For the Wolverines to have any shot at slowing down the Buckeyes, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter's group has to win up front and get pressure on Stroud. Michigan is tied for second in the Big Ten in sacks (31), with 10 players having at least two, including Mike Morris (7.5) and Eyabi Okie (three). The Buckeyes can counter with a line that's allowed only seven sacks this year.

Stroud has passed for 2,991 yards and 35 touchdowns to just four picks in '22, and if he has time to throw, he's likely to find plays downfield against a Michigan secondary that's yet to face a passing attack like the one the Buckeyes possess. Marvin Harrison Jr. (65 catches for 1,037 yards) has been Stroud's No. 1 target, with Emeka Egbuka (57 for 914) and Julian Fleming (24) also in the mix. Tight end Cade Stover (31) is another weapon for Stover to target over the middle of the field.

Like Michigan, Ohio State is dealing with injuries in the backfield, and it's unclear who will be available on Saturday. Miyan Williams (783 yards) missed last week's game, while TreVeyon Henderson (571 yards) has been banged up over the past few weeks. If both or one are limited, freshman Dallan Hayden (503 yards) will see an increased role. Running on Michigan's defense has been tough (2.8 yards per carry) all season, however.

It's a matchup of strength versus strength when these two groups are on the field. Michigan is limiting teams to just 11.7 points a game and 4.1 yards a snap, while Ohio State's offense has rarely been held in check. The Wolverines don't necessarily need to win on every down, but this unit has to get stops on third down and in the red zone. Also, winning up front is crucial. Even if the line doesn't get to Stroud, pressure to impact his pocket or timing is a must.

Final Analysis

Determining how a game is going to play out is sometimes a difficult proposition. But in the case of The Game, it's really simple: Which team wins the battle up front and determines the style of play? Will Michigan with or without Corum and Edwards get its ground game on track? And if they can't, will McCarthy connect on enough big plays through the air to open up things on the ground? If Ohio State stuffs the Wolverines' ground game and protects Stroud in the pocket, Day's team could pull away in the second half for a win. The guess here is Stroud gets on track in the final two quarters, and the Buckeyes get revenge for last year's loss in Ann Arbor to clinch a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.