LSU vs. Arkansas Prediction: SEC West-Leading Tigers Take on the Razorbacks in Fayetteville
Could two college football programs have had a more vast dichotomy than these two last weekend? One of them took down their bitter rival in a top-10 showdown, sending its rabid fan base into hysteria, and the other lost a game to a Group of 5 team at home, further slumping the shoulders of its fan base. To put it simply, LSU scored on its two-point conversion to beat Alabama 32-31 and Arkansas did not score on its two-point conversion to lose to Liberty 21-19. So there you go.
Related: College Football Predictions for Every Game in Week 11
Look at it this way: a few weeks ago, Arkansas was in the top 10 in the national rankings. Meanwhile, LSU was picked at or near the bottom of the SEC West in a couple of preseason publications. Now the Razorbacks are one loss from being .500 and the Tigers sit atop the West at 5-1 and in the driver's seat for the SEC Championship Game.
That amps up the pressure on both teams for this Battle of the Boot showdown.
No. 7 LSU at Arkansas
Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 12 at 12 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: LSU -3
Tickets: As low as $128 on SITickets.com*
When LSU Has the Ball
Look for the Razorbacks to pin their ears back. Going into last week's Liberty game the UA defense was tops in the SEC with 24 sacks on the season and added four more vs. the Flames. Drew Sanders leads the SEC with 7.5 sacks and Jordan Domineck is third with 6.5, both in the top 26 nationally. And, of course you probably heard Kirk Herbstreit on both "College GameDay" and during the Alabama game saying that the Tigers' O-line features a pair of freshman tackles in Emory Jones and Will Campbell. That adds up to a bad proposition for the Tigers. They'll have to be mindful of how quickly the Razorback defense gets to quarterback Jayden Daniels and put him on some short, quick drops to stay vertical.
… or just let him scramble for 100-plus yards on improvised runs like he always does.
As long as I keep getting assigned LSU previews to write, I'm going to keep hammering on the fact that Kayshon Boutte has been nearly a zero factor in the offense. Oh, sure, he caught seven passes against Alabama (whaddya know, a season high) but he still had just 51 receiving yards. How about using him to stretch the field a little bit? Let him run a post route. Or a fly route. He still has just one touchdown this season… one.
Sometimes the best defense is a good punter, and LSU has a good one. Jay Bramblett will be under a small spotlight (you never wanna give kickers a BIG spotlight), as he will be given the job of pinning the Razorbacks deep in their own territory. Against Liberty, the Hogs had 13 drives and all of them started inside their own 30-yard line, with an average starting field position of their own 19-yard line. None of their first 11 drives ended in a touchdown, and only one finished inside the Liberty 30. So with Arkansas showing it has trouble sustaining long drives, field position is going to be a huge key to LSU's chances.
When Arkansas Has the Ball
Score early. That's the best advice. Duh. But when it comes to LSU, the Tigers have given up a touchdown on their oppponents' opening drive in four of the last five games. It would've been five-for-five if Bryant Young hadn't inexplicably tried to improvise a forced throw that got picked off in the end zone. It is also worth noting that Arkansas has been outscored 61-42 in the first quarter, so they're used to slow starts so far this season. (Hint: if you win the coin flip, take the ball first.)
Expanding on that, let's get the running game established early, Hog-boys. LSU has some pass-rushing weapons of their own (Hello Mr. Perkins, Mr. Ojulari), so they must get KJ Jefferson some time in the pocket. The best way to open up the passing game is to keep the Tigers off-balance with the running game. Raheim Sanders is a great weapon (122.3 yards per game) but had just 60 yards on 17 carries vs. the Flames. Seven of his first eight rushes were for no gain or negative yards. Look, the Razorbacks come into this game with the 10th-best rushing attack in the country at 233.3 yards per game and have an O-line that has 131 career starts. But against Liberty, that offensive line got pushed around. Egad. If anyone has the pressure on them this week it's UofA offensive line coach Cody Kennedy.
Final Analysis
Oh, this is a classic "trap door" game for the Tigers. They're coming off a rare rush-the-field win over hated rival Alabama. The Razorbacks are coming off a listless upset loss to what most would say is a lesser opponent. The Tigers are emotionally drained. The Razorbacks are full of piss and vinegar. And yes, the Hogs are playing at home too. But most importantly, these angry Pigs are talented enough and capable enough to pull the upset here. So should we pull the trigger on picking a Razorback win?
It'll be a white-knuckler for sure. But nah, the Razorbacks have looked too ordinary and the Tigers have too much momentum.
Prediction: LSU 35, Arkansas 31
Podcast: Complete Week 11 Preview, Predictions, and Picks Against the Spread
— Written by Eric Sorenson, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network. He is a college football, college baseball and college hockey addict... and writer. Follow him on Twitter @Stitch_Head.
*Price as of publication.
