Look: NFL Draft Expert Predicts Surprising No. 1 Pick

For months now, NFL fans have assumed that the first player selected in this spring's NFL Draft would be a quarterback. The plethora of talented signal-callers available and the constant desperation of teams to find a franchise quarterback made it seem like a lock.

But in his first mock draft, NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah included a surprise player atop the first round.

Jeremiah predicted that the Chicago Bears will select Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter with the first overall pick.

Jeremiah includes plenty of passes in his first round. He projects four quarterback to be selected among the first 22 picks, three of them in the top 10.

But he believes Carter, who has led Georgia's dominant defensive line during its back-to-back national championship runs, is the best overall player available.

Jeremiah's prediction makes sense if the Bears keep the first pick (and he didn't include any trades in his initial mock draft). General manager Ryan Poles said last week that he plans on Justin Fields, whom the team selected in the first round in 2021, being the Bears' starter behind center next season.

That said, given the number of teams in need of a quarterback, it wouldn't come as a surprise if the Bears trade down from the top spot, allowing another team to draft, say, Alabama's Bryce Young or Kentucky's Will Levis. Jeremiah currently projects Young to the Houston Texans with the No. 2 overall pick and Levis to be drafted by the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4. He has Ohio State's C.J. Stroud going to the Carolina Panthers with the ninth pick.

NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport was among those who expressed surprise at seeing Carter in the top spot.

Others expressed skepticism that will ultimately happen.

"I understand it's tough because they actually have the pick now, but I can't take (mock) drafts seriously who have Bears picking at 1," one fan tweeted. "It's obviously going to be a team trading up for Bryce."

"Bears could get Carter at 4 if they want," wrote another, "they're not staying at 1."

While any predictions more than three months out from the draft itself are always a shot in the dark, one thing is certain: with the NFL combine, players' pro days and draft pick trades still to come, the actual draft order will look quite different than any January mock.