Liberty Bowl Prediction: Arkansas and Kansas Meet in Memphis Hoping to Finish on a Winning Note

Razorbacks and Jayhawks meet for just the second time ever.

Author:
Steven Lassan
Publish date:
Dec 26, 2022

Kansas and Arkansas meet for just the second time on the gridiron for a potentially high-scoring affair in the Liberty Bowl on Dec. 28. Motivation won’t be lacking on either sideline when this game kicks off on Wednesday afternoon. The Jayhawks have showed marked improvement under second-year coach Lance Leipold and are making their first bowl trek since 2008. The Razorbacks lost three of their last four in the regular season and should be hungry to finish the year on a high note.

Consistent winning or success has eluded Kansas in recent years. The program went 23-118 from 2010-21 but finally took a step forward with Leipold’s arrival last fall. As expected, the Jayhawks struggled in Leipold’s debut (2-10) after his arrival post-spring ball. However, the team was markedly better in ’22. Led by a much-improved offense behind quarterback Jalon Daniels, Kansas started 5-0 and earned a spot in the AP Top 25 for the first time since ’09. Daniels was injured against TCU on Oct. 8 and missed four games before returning on Nov. 19 against Texas. Backup quarterback Jason Bean kept the offense afloat and guided the team to an all-important sixth victory against Oklahoma State on Nov. 5. Although Kansas might have some what-ifs had Daniels stayed healthy, just the fact the program is in a bowl and inked Leipold to a long-term extension is a big deal.

After a 3-0 start and a No. 10 ranking in the polls, Arkansas had hopes of contending for double-digit wins this year. However, those evaporated with three consecutive defeats, including a bizarre 23-21 loss to Texas A&M and a 40-17 defeat at Mississippi State with quarterback K.J. Jefferson sidelined due to injury. After a two-game winning streak to get to 5-3, coach Sam Pittman’s team stumbled with three losses in the last four games. A 6-6 mark is a disappointment considering where this team was in mid-September. But with four losses by three points or less, the Razorbacks weren’t that far from something better.

The only meeting between these two programs took place in 1906 with the Jayhawks winning 37-5. Kansas has won its last three bowl trips, while Arkansas is 4-1 in its last five postseason appearances.

Liberty Bowl: Kansas (6-6) vs. Arkansas (6-6)

Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 28 at 5:30 p.m. ET
Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Arkansas -3
Tickets: As low as $57 on SITickets.com*

When Arkansas Has the Ball

Arkansas is down a few key weapons on Wednesday due to NFL draft decisions and transfers. However, a shorthanded offense is still the program’s best shot at bringing back a bowl trophy to Fayetteville. The Razorbacks averaged 30.7 points a game and 6.2 yards per play this season, which is a tough matchup for a Kansas defense that surrendered 5.95 yards a snap and 33.8 points a contest.

Turnover at receiver prior to the bowl is a major concern for coordinator Kendal Briles, but the Razorbacks should be able to navigate those departures for two reasons: Quarterback K.J. Jefferson and running back Rocket Sanders. Jefferson is one of the best in the SEC and finished the regular season fourth in total yardage (287.1 a game). The Mississippi native threw for 2,361 yards and 22 touchdowns to just four picks and added 510 yards and seven scores on the ground. Sanders finished second in the SEC in rushing yardage (1,426) and posted 10 scores on the ground. Kansas had issues against the run all year, allowing 193.8 yards a contest and 4.54 yards per carry in the regular season. Also, the Jayhawks registered just 57 tackles for a loss. Jefferson and Sanders should be able to find plenty of running room behind one of the SEC’s top offensive lines against a suspect Kansas front.

Of Jefferson’s top four statistical targets in the receiving corps from the regular season, just one will play in Memphis. Tight end Trey Knox (26 catches) and receiver Ketron Jackson Jr. (16) opted to transfer, and Jadon Haselwood (59) entered the draft. Matt Landers (44 catches) is slated to play, but the other projected starters – Bryce Stephens and Jaedon Wilson – combined for just nine receptions this year.

Kansas allowed at least 43 points in each of its last three games and 40.3 a contest on average in the month of November. Stopping the run and the pass have both been an issue at times for this unit. Offenses also converted third downs just under 47 percent (46.9) against the Jayhawks in ’22. Focusing (and slowing) Jefferson and Sanders is priority No. 1. Kansas also needs to get Jefferson into long-yardage downs and obvious passing situations and force the receivers outside of Landers to win one-on-one battles.

When Kansas Has the Ball

The month off from the season finale against Kansas State to the Liberty Bowl should help Daniels get closer to 100 percent. The junior ranked among college football’s top quarterbacks in the first month of the season before a shoulder injury sidelined him for four games and likely limited him to some extent in the last two. For the season, Daniels threw for 1,470 yards and 13 touchdowns to just two picks and ran for 398 yards and six scores.

Daniels is the catalyst for Kansas’ offense, and the California native’s ability to make plays on the ground or through the air is a tough matchup for an Arkansas defense in a state of transition. The Razorbacks enter the Liberty Bowl 11th in the SEC in scoring defense (28.8 points a game) and 13th in yards per play allowed (6.43). Additionally, coordinator Barry Odom left to be the head coach at UNLV, and this unit will be without starting linebackers Bumper Pool (injury) and Drew Sanders (NFL draft). Also, the personnel on defense took a few extra hits when starting tackle Isaiah Nichols and part-time nickel starter Myles Slusher entered the portal. Linebackers coach Michael Scherer will call the defensive signals against the Jayhawks.

Stopping the pass was an issue (13th in the SEC in pass efficiency defense) for Arkansas this year. Additionally, with Sanders (9.5 sacks) out, the team will be missing its best pass rusher. Daniels is expected to have a full allotment of receivers available, including Lawrence Arnold (36), Luke Grimm (42), Quentin Skinner (25), and tight end Mason Fairchild (29). With the concerns for the Razorbacks in the secondary, as well as Sanders prepping for the NFL draft, a healthy Daniels could have a huge day through the air.

Daniels will play a role on the ground, but sophomore Devin Neal (1,061 yards) is the primary back for the Jayhawks. Although the pass defense was a greater concern for Pittman, the Razorbacks still allowed 179.3 rushing yards a game. And as mentioned above, the absence of Nichols, Sanders and Pool could be problematic versus the run.

Final Analysis

Considering the missing pieces for Arkansas on defense and at receiver, this is a game Jefferson and Sanders simply have to take over. And behind a massive (and standout) offensive line, the Razorbacks should be able to control the line of scrimmage against a Kansas defense that had issues all year against the run. However, Daniels and the Jayhawks will have success moving the ball on the ground and through the air. Points should be aplenty, but the combination of Jefferson and Sanders and the Arkansas offensive line eventually take control of this game in the fourth quarter and tilts this game in favor of the Hogs.