Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction: AFC Playoff Longshots Wrap Up the Christmas Eve Slate

Both teams look to solve less-than-ideal conditions in the Steel City in hopes of picking up some late-season momentum.

Author:
Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt)
Publish date:
Dec 22, 2022

Two teams loosely in the AFC playoff hunt play on Christmas Eve as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas has dominated this series as of late winning six of the last eight meetings, including a 26-17 victory in the Steel City in Week 2 last season. Both teams enter this game with 6-8 records and two games behind Miami, who currently claims the last wild-card spot. However, Las Vegas is behind three other teams while Pittsburgh is further down the standings, so it goes without saying that this is a must-win situation just to simply be mentioned in the playoff conversation.

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The Raiders got their Christmas miracle last week courtesy of the Patriots' Jakobi Meyers whose lateral on the last play of the game landed in Chandler Jones' hands and resulted in a walk-off touchdown in a mind-blowing 30-24 home win for Las Vegas. The finish was part of a roller-coaster game that saw the Raiders blow a 17-3 lead in the first half only to steal the victory with two touchdowns in the final 32 seconds. Derek Carr threw three touchdown passes with an interception and a banged-up Josh Jacobs ran for 93 yards on 22 carries. New England didn't do much through the air (112 passing yards), but Rhamondre Stevenson gashed Las Vegas for 172 yards and a touchdown on only 19 carries. It was still a satisfying victory nonetheless as Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels defeated his former boss and mentor Bill Belichick.

Pittsburgh maintained its recent success, defeating Carolina 24-16 on the road for its third win in four games. The offense was extremely balanced with Mitch Trubisky throwing for 179 yards (and no interceptions) while Najee Harris ran for a game-high 86 yards. The defense did the rest, forcing Sam Darnold to try and beat the Steelers with his arm as the Panthers managed 12 first downs and 209 total yards of offense, including just 21 on the ground.

Saturday's game also comes a day after the 50th anniversary of the "Immaculate Reception," one of the most iconic plays in NFL history. There were many special events planned to commemorate this anniversary but the plans changed following the unexpected death on Wednesday of Hall of Fame running back and Steelers legend Franco Harris, the one most closely associated with the unforgettable play. Pittsburgh is still expected to wear throwback uniforms for the game and Harris' No. 32 will be retired at halftime.

Las Vegas (6-8) at Pittsburgh (6-8)

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Tickets: As low as $26 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Steelers QB situation
Rookie Kenny Pickett is expected to start on Saturday night as he'll return from a second concussion. There are obviously concerns about Pickett being able to stay on the field (he switched his helmet to a different Riddell model and will be wearing a visor for the first time this season), but he also is the best choice to run Pittsburgh's offense. For the season, Pickett is 4-5 as the starter completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,797 yards (179.7 per game). He does have twice as many interceptions (eight) as touchdowns (four), but has cut down on the mistakes (no picks in his last five starts) and also is a threat to make things happen with his legs (5.1 ypc, 3 TDs). He'll also be going up against a Las Vegas defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in both yards (244.3) and points (24.1) allowed per game. If anything, the bigger story may be who replaces Pickett in the event of another injury or some other issue. Mitch Trubisky has been the backup but he's 2-3 as the starter with more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (four). Some Steelers have been advocating for Mason Rudolph, Ben Roethilsberger's longtime backup, to get a chance. Head coach Mike Tomlin is probably hoping that he won't have to worry about that because Pickett starts and finishes the game (unless it becomes a blowout).

2. Ground work
Right now, the weathering the Steel City on Saturday night is supposed to be a high of 11 degrees with 18-25 MPH winds, which means passing the ball will be difficult. This could tilt things in Pittsburgh's favor as the Steelers have the better run defense, checking in at seventh in the league (109.0 ypg) compared to the Raiders (117.4 ypg, 15th). Las Vegas does have the more productive ground gainer, however, with Josh Jacobs leading the league with 1,495 rushing yards to go with his 11 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has yet to get a 100-yard game from anyone (Jacobs has six such efforts). Najee Harris leads the team with 790 yards and six scores. Given the expected conditions, whichever team has more success staying grounded will probably win this game.

3. No early presents
Neither team is that adept at taking the ball away. The Steelers average 1.2 takeaways per contest while the Raiders are second to last in the league with a total of 11 (0.8 per game). On the flip side, Pittsburgh has had more problems with ball security (17 total), largely due to the number of interceptions thrown (13). Pickett has done better in this department lately while Derek Carr has twice as many TD passes (23) as picks (11). Overall, the Steelers have fared better when it comes to turnover margin (even vs. -3 for Las Vegas). However you slice it, every little mistake will be magnified in this one as there doesn't figure to be a ton of scoring and the conditions won't help either.

Final Analysis

I've been low on the Raiders all season, but they've won four of their last five. They won the luckiest game ever last week and now have to head to Pittsburgh on a short week. I think the best unit in this game is the Steelers' defense, especially if the winds negate Davante Adams' impact for Las Vegas. Pittsburgh also will probably play with a little more emotion following Franco Harris' unexpected death. I don't expect many points and look for the defense to seal this one late so the home crowd can go home happy on Christmas Eve night.