Kansas City vs. Las Vegas Prediction: Chiefs Look to Wrap Up AFC's No. 1 Seed With Another Win Over the Raiders

Patrick Mahomes and company can secure home-field advantage and a first-round bye with a victory in Sin City.

Author:
Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt)
Publish date:
Jan 5, 2023

It's the wrap-up of a tough season for the Las Vegas Raiders as they host the playoff-bound Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday afternoon. When these teams met in Week 5, the Raiders' fourth-quarter comeback fell short as their two-point conversion attempt failed with 4:27 left in a 30-29 loss. The Patrick Mahomes-to-Travis Kelce combination resulted in four touchdowns. Josh Jacobs rumbled for 154 yards, and Derek Carr had two touchdown passes with no turnovers as Las Vegas outgained the home team (378 to 368) but couldn't protect a 20-10 halftime lead.

Related: Expert Picks for Every Week 18 NFL Game

Kansas City (13-3) has won four in a row after holding off Denver 27-24 at home last Sunday. It was the Chiefs' 15th in a row over their AFC West rivals as Mahomes joined Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks with multiple 5,000-yard passing seasons. The Broncos led twice this in the game but were outscored 14-7 in the fourth quarter. Denver averaged nearly five yards per carry, but Kansas City's defense held the visitors to 307 total yards, collected four sacks, and forced two Russell Wilson turnovers. A fourth-quarter interception by L'Jarius Sneed led to the Chiefs' final touchdown, which proved to be the difference in the three-point victory.

Las Vegas (6-10) enters its finale having lost two straight and three of its last four. The Raiders gave the 49ers all they could handle last weekend in Allegiant Stadium, leading by as many as 10 points in the third quarter and then scoring late in the fourth to send the game to overtime before eventually falling 37-34 to the NFC West champions. Jarrett Stidham, who was making his first start following Carr's benching, gashed what was the NFL's No. 1 defense for 365 passing yards and three touchdowns, but he also had a costly interception in overtime and threw another one earlier in the game. Davante Adams put up 153 yards and two scores on seven catches. The offense finished with 500 total yards and 29 first downs, but the defense gave up 454 and 27 while allowing more than six yards per carry.

Kansas City (13-3) at Las Vegas (6-10)

Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 7 at 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Tickets: As low as $198 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. What's your motivation?
The Chiefs currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which would give them home-field advantage throughout and the coveted first-round bye. A victory on Saturday would clinch that spot regardless of what happens when Buffalo plays New England with the NFL announcing on Thursday that the Bills-Bengals game that was postponed on Monday night following Damar Hamlin's on-field collapse would not be resumed. Even with a Week 6 head-to-head victory over Kansas City, all the Chiefs need to do is win in Sin City and the No. 1 seed is theirs. A loss means they will be scoreboard-watching on Sunday. On the other side, the Raiders are playing for pride and draft positioning. Right now, Las Vegas is lined up to pick seventh, but that could change considering two other teams enter Week 18 with 6-10 records. There also are plenty of questions swirling around how different this team will look next season, starting at quarterback.

2. Is Stidham for real?
The 2019 fourth-round pick out of Auburn will get his second career start and is looking to build off a strong showing last week. After spending his first three seasons in New England (and appearing in eight games), Stidham was traded to Las Vegas this offseason to reunite with his former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and is being given a chance after the team decided to bench Derek Carr. This gives him one final audition to stay with the Raiders or join another team next season. He certainly gave teams something to think about after throwing for 365 yards against what was the NFL's No. 1 defense entering Week 17 (Philadelphia now leads in total defense after the 49ers gave up 500 total yards to the Raiders). Stidham also has some mobility, as he added 34 rushing yards on seven carries.

Kansas City has been susceptible through the air (18th in the league with 223.5 passing ypg allowed), so Stidham should have more opportunities to impress. He also has the benefit of a full arsenal of weapons around him, as tight end Darren Waller has had an impact since returning from an extended stay on injured reserve. Last week, Waller posted 72 yards and a touchdown on just three catches. Waller's presence means defenses can't devote as much attention to slowing down wide receiver Davante Adams, who leads the league with 14 touchdown catches and is third with 1,443 receiving yards. Las Vegas also has the league's leading rusher in Josh Jacobs (1,608 yds., 12 TDs), who has positioned himself nicely as a pending free agent after the team declined to pick up the fifth-year option of his rookie contract in late April.

3. Mahomes domination
Mahomes has absolutely gone wild against the Raiders in his career, as he's 8-1 against the division rival. He's thrown 26 touchdown passes compared to just three interceptions in these games, 11 of those coming in the last three matchups. Las Vegas is 29th in the league against the pass (246.8 ypg) and has surrendered 24 touchdowns through the air while recording six interceptions. The Raiders don't have near as much to play for (if anything really) compared to the Chiefs, and Mahomes also is looking to make one last statement to MVP voters. It'll be interesting to see how long Mahomes plays in this game or if head coach Andy Reid takes him out earlier with bigger goals in mind.

There also is some history to keep an eye on with running back Jerick McKinnon. He had two more touchdown catches last week in the win over Denver to become the first running back in the Super Bowl era (since 1970) with a touchdown reception in five straight games. McKinnon, who has become a bigger part of the offensive game plan as this season has progressed, has eight touchdown catches overall, placing him second to Travis Kelce (12) on the team. Mahomes leads the league with 40 touchdown passes and 5,048 passing yards.

Final Analysis

Plain and simple, this will be a Chiefs victory, but by how much? The good things that Stidham did last week are now on tape for others to see. I think the Raiders score some points, but this one won't be interesting as Mahomes makes his case for another MVP award and Kansas City shifts its focus to another Super Bowl run.