Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction: Key NFC North Battle Helps Kick Season Off

Author:
Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt)
Publish date:
Sep 9, 2022

It's a rather large NFC North matchup in Week 1 as the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers. This is a battle of the two top teams in the division and an opportunity for both to answer early questions. Last year, these two squads didn't meet until much later, and each team won on their home field. The Packers lost 34-31 in Minneapolis in Week 11, but beat the Vikings 37-10 at Lambeau Field in Week 17. Aaron Rodgers had six total touchdown passes in the two contests while Minnesota was forced to start Sean Mannion in the late-season tilt, which is why the Vikings struggled to get anything done offensively.

The Packers put together their third straight 13-win campaign in 2021, but it ended with a 13-10 loss at home to San Francisco in the Divisional Round. The biggest difference in this year's team is that All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams is now in Las Vegas and Rodgers is looking for a new reliable target. Defensively, Green Bay ranked in the top 15 in a lot of categories and added reinforcements to the unit this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Vikings had a disappointing 8-9 season that saw them lose two of their last three down the stretch, including that 37-10 game against the Packers. Kirk Cousins compiled some solid stats (33 TDs, 7 INTs), but the problems came on defense as Minnesota ranked 26th against the run and 28th against the pass. The offense performed well, but not enough to overcome a defense that allowed too many points at times. That's a big reason why Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah fired defensive-minded head coach Mike Zimmer after eight seasons and hired former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell.

Green Bay (0-0) at Minnesota (0-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Spread: Packers -1.5
Tickets: As low as $159 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Intangibles
This is Week 1 and a big divisional game, so the schedule doesn't really factor in yet, and there shouldn't be issues when it comes to focus. If you want to take a peek ahead, Minnesota heads to Philadelphia for the second half of the Week 2 "Monday Night Football" doubleheader while Green Bay will host Chicago for "Sunday Night Football." Neither Aaron Rodgers nor Kirk Cousins saw reps in the preseason, but they are both seasoned veterans, so it's not as if the early work is necessary. But Rodgers could be more inclined to get off to a slow start because of his reworked receiving corps.

2. WR mismatch
The loss of Davante Adams is a huge one for the Packers, as there are plenty of questions regarding who will step up. Green Bay drafted two wide receivers in Christian Watson (second round) and Romeo Doubs (fourth), but the former has been hurt throughout training camp and the preseason and the latter has an issue with drops. Watson has been practicing in full recently, but how ready will he be after missing so much time? Rodgers called out his receiving corps during training camp, saying they've got to cut down the drops and run better routes as well. Veterans Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins will be looked to for leadership but also production. Lazard, who had 40 receptions for 513 yards and eight touchdowns last season, seems like the most likely candidate to emerge as the new No. 1, but he may is doubtful to play on Sunday because of an ankle injury. There are no such questions at the position for Minnesota, as Justin Jefferson has already established himself as one of the best in the league while Adam Thielen has been as reliable as they come and is a favorite red-zone target of Cousins.

3. Other offseason changes
The Packers saw Za'Darius Smith change sides in this rivalry, as he'll be suiting up for the Vikings on Sunday. Smith had 26 sacks the past two seasons and now will be setting his sights on bringing down Rodgers. He was not the only addition to the Minnesota defense, with Jordan Hicks (Cardinals) and Harrison Phillips (Bills) joining the fold and veteran coordinator Ed Donatell taking over. This unit needed some new blood following the departures of Mackensie Alexander, Anthony Barr, Everson Griffen, Nick Vigil, and Sheldon Richardson, as well as the fact the Vikings finished 30th in total defense (383.6 ypg) last season.

Final Analysis

Plain and simple, right now, I think the wrong team is favored in this game. I think the oddsmakers are giving Rodgers a lot of respect and he definitely deserves it, but I feel like the Vikings are the better play, especially at home. Their defense is improved and the offense matches up well with the Packers. Give me the mild upset here.