Georgia Football: 5 Reasons Why the Bulldogs Will Beat TCU in the National Championship
Georgia earned its second straight trip to the CFB Playoff National Championship game thanks to a thrilling 42-41 victory over Ohio State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl last Saturday night. After escaping the Buckeyes' upset bid at the last second, the Bulldogs are 60 minutes away from history. With a win, coach Kirby Smart's team will become the first program to go back-to-back as national champion since Alabama did in 2011-12.
After defeating Alabama in last year's national title, Georgia opened '22 near the top of the list of favorites to win it all. The Bulldogs crushed Oregon 49-3 in the opener and defeated Tennessee 27-13 in a high-profile November showdown. Smart's team cruised the rest of the way with wins over Mississippi State, Kentucky, Georgia Tech and LSU to end the regular season at 13-0. And with a victory over TCU, Georgia will join Clemson ('18) and LSU ('19) as the only teams to go 15-0 in the CFB Playoff era. The Bulldogs had to replace several key members from last year's dominant defense, but this unit once again ranks among the best in college football. And a productive offense (39.4 points a game) led by quarterback Stetson Bennett is prolific on the ground or through the air.
Related: 5 Reasons Why TCU Will Beat Georgia in the National Championship
College football’s 2022-23 season concludes on Monday, Jan. 9 with the national championship game at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Why will Georgia defeat TCU and claim the title? Here are five reasons why the Bulldogs will win it all:
5 Reasons Why Georgia Will Beat TCU for the National Title
1. Talent Wins Out
The 2022 version of Georgia isn't as good as the '21 team that won the national title. However, this year's team is still the best in college football. The Bulldogs were the No. 1 team by the CFB Playoff Committee rankings entering the Peach Bowl and held the top spot in advanced metrics like ESPN's SP+ and Football Outsiders' F+ rankings. Although Georgia didn't play its best game against Ohio State, it still found a way to win against a motivated Buckeyes squad. However, when the moment was big this year, the Bulldogs stepped up with arguably their best performances of the season with dominant wins over Oregon and Tennessee. Not only are the on-field performance and metrics there to indicate this is the best team in the nation, recruiting rankings only further illustrate how loaded Smart's squad really is. According to the 247Sports Composite, Georgia has inked 77 four- or five-star high school recruits since '19. On the other side, TCU has signed 18 in that span. Anything can happen in a 60-minute game. However, the Bulldogs have the best (and most-talented) roster the Horned Frogs have faced this season.
2. The Ground Game and Offensive Line
Although the stats aren't necessarily equal between rushing and passing for Georgia, balance is a strength for this group. The Bulldogs average 201.9 rushing yards a game (fourth in the SEC) and 293 through the air (third in the SEC). In terms of actual plays, coordinator Todd Monken's group has recorded 513 rushing attempts and 464 passing. Quarterback Stetson Bennett and tight end Brock Bowers will garner most of the pregame attention, but the success of Georgia's offense certainly starts up front. This unit was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award (awarded to the best offensive line in college football) and paved the way for rushers to average 5.5 yards per carry. Also, the line (also aided by Bennett's mobility) surrendered just nine sacks. This unit graded out as the No. 7 pass-blocking unit and the No. 8 run-blocking group according to PFF in '22. Right tackle Warren McClendon was injured in the SEC Championship Game and did not start in the Peach Bowl win over Ohio State. If McClendon is able to go on Monday night, his return will only add to a group that already features one of the SEC's top centers in Sedrick Van Pran and a standout left tackle in Broderick Jones.
On paper, TCU's defense is susceptible to the run. The Horned Frogs allow around 152 rushing yards a game and rank 89th nationally in rushing defense success rate. However, this group held Michigan to 185 yards (with 54 coming on one play). The 3-3-5 defense can be tricky for teams to plan and adjust for once the game starts, but the Bulldogs have the pieces up front to move the pile better than Michigan did last week. Also, it doesn't hurt Georgia has one of the deepest backfields in the nation to lean on. Kenny McIntosh (779 yards), Daijun Edwards (739), and Kendall Milton (559) will each be involved on Monday night.
With depth at running back and strength in the trenches, Georgia should be able to establish the run better than Michigan did against TCU.
3. Stetson Bennett Steps Up in the Clutch
Bennett's career and incredible story are known by college football fans at this point. The senior is just 60 minutes away from guiding Georgia to back-to-back titles, and although the rushing attack and defense have been key, Bennett has been clutch when needed. In last year's CFB Playoff games versus Michigan and Alabama, the senior completed 37 of 56 passes for 537 yards and five touchdowns to zero picks. Despite throwing an interception in last week's win over Ohio State, Bennett ended with another solid game (and room to improve) by completing 23 of 34 passes for 398 yards and three scores (averaging 11.7 yards per attempt). In the fourth quarter, the senior was locked in. He attempted 12 passes with 10 completions for 190 yards and two scores, including a 76-yard touchdown strike to Arian Smith.
For the season, Bennett has passed for 3,823 yards and 23 touchdowns to just seven picks and added another 166 yards and eight scores on the ground. The senior has also guided this offense to an average of 39.4 points a game and 7.1 yards per play (compared to 6.9 for TCU).
Although the Mailman has been doubted over and over, his ability to deliver over the course of a season is one of the main reasons why Georgia is playing for the national title. Additionally, his ability to deliver in the clutch helped the Bulldogs win it all last year and get back to the championship in '22. Odds are, the Mailman will close his career on a high note.
4. Emerging Targets at Wide Receivers + Brock Bowers
Helping Bennett in his pursuit of another national title is an emerging group of playmakers on the outside. Tight end Brock Bowers (56 catches) is a matchup nightmare with his size (6-foot-4) and speed combination. Fellow tight end Darnell Washington is questionable to play due to injury, but if the junior is able to go, his size (6-foot-7) is another difficult matchup for TCU.
The depth of weapons extends to wide receiver, where the Bulldogs may not have a superstar/All-American this season, but there's also a lot to like about this group for Monken. Sophomore Ladd McConkey paced the Georgia wide receivers with 53 catches for 674 yards, while Kearis Jackson, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Dominick Blaylock all hauled in more than 15 passes this fall. However, Monken and Smart have to be encouraged by the progress of two sophomore receivers from the Peach Bowl. Arian Smith was the recipient of one of Bennett's fourth-quarter touchdown passes, ending the game with three receptions for 129 yards. After battling a high ankle sprain for most of the season, Adonai Mitchell caught three passes for 43 yards and a score against Ohio State.
Not only will Bowers (and potentially Washington) cause plenty of headaches for TCU's defense, but the emergence of Mitchell and Smith last week is another layer for the secondary to account for on Monday night.
5. Defense Wins Championships
Georgia's defense didn't have its best performance against Ohio State. The Buckeyes scored 41 points, recorded 467 yards (7.1 yards per play), and torched the Bulldogs for 348 yards through the air. However, that performance is the outlier against Smart's defense in '22. For the season, Georgia is only giving up 14.8 points a game and 4.59 yards a snap. Also, this defense ranks first nationally against the run (79.93 yards a game) and holds quarterbacks to a 57.4 completion rate.
The success of this group starts up front with lineman Jalen Carter and extends to linebacker with standouts like Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Smael Mondon Jr. at the second level. In the secondary, cornerback Kelee Ringo had an up-and-down night against the Buckeyes but earned second-team All-SEC honors this year. Safeties Christopher Smith and Malaki Starks are also two of the best in college football at their position.
After a less-than-stellar defensive performance against Ohio State, isn't it safe to assume Smart and his defensive staff will have this group poised to rebound? Georgia's pass rush and coverage need to improve to win on Monday night, and the defense has to tackle well in space to prevent TCU from getting big plays.
Considering this defense is loaded with future NFL draft picks and was a standout group all year, odds favor Georgia focused and ready to deliver a better defensive effort versus the Horned Frogs.
