Fiesta Bowl Prediction: Contrasting Styles Between Michigan and TCU Battle for a Trip to National Title

Author:
Steven Lassan
Publish date:
Dec 29, 2022

The College Football Playoff officially gets underway when TCU and Michigan meet Saturday in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl for a spot in the national championship. The Horned Frogs are making their first trek to the CFB Playoff, while this is the second year in a row the Wolverines have made the four-team setup. The winner of this matchup will play on Jan. 9 for the national title against the winner of the Peach Bowl between Ohio State and Georgia.

Michigan's path to the CFB Playoff in '21 and '22 started after a dismal 2-4 record in the abbreviated '20 campaign. Coach Jim Harbaugh hit the reset button on the program, rebuilt his coaching staff, and re-established a strong culture to guide the Wolverines to a 12-2 record and a Big Ten title with a trip to the Orange Bowl last fall. A year later, Michigan hopes to finish the climb by winning a playoff game and beating Ohio State or Georgia in the national championship. Behind a combination of a punishing ground attack and standout defense, the Wolverines cruised to a 13-0 mark and a Big Ten title this season. Harbaugh's team had only two games decided by one score, dominated Penn State 41-17, and won 45-23 at rival Ohio State.

With first-year coach Sonny Dykes taking over a team that went 5-7 last year, TCU was nowhere near the top of the list for playoff contenders in 2022. But the Horned Frogs gained steam by reeling off key wins against SMU, Oklahoma, and Kansas before rallying to beat Kansas State 38-28 on Oct. 22. Dykes' team finished the goal of a perfect regular season by knocking off Texas 17-10, Baylor 29-28, and Iowa State 62-14 in November. TCU fell short (31-28) in a rematch against K-State in the Big 12 title game, but the 12 regular season wins were more than enough to secure a trip to the playoff. Close victories and finding ways to win were staples of this team. The Horned Frogs won eight of their 12 games by 10 points or fewer, and two of those (Baylor and Oklahoma State) by a combined four points.

This is the first meeting between TCU and Michigan on the gridiron. The Wolverines have lost their last five bowl trips, including last year's playoff game (34-11) to Georgia. The Horned Frogs have won four out of their last five bowl treks.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 TCU (12-1) vs. No. 2 Michigan (13-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 3 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Michigan -7.5
Tickets: As low as $212 on SITickets.com*

When TCU Has the Ball

It's an oversimplification, but this game features one of the nation's most explosive offenses against one of the best defenses in college football. TCU averages 40.3 points a game and 6.84 yards per play and paces the nation with 19 plays of 50-plus yards. Michigan will counter with a defense that's holding teams to just 13.4 points a contest and allowing 4.5 yards per snap.

Despite leading the offense for the three previous years, Max Duggan didn't open '22 as the starter. However, an injury to Chandler Morris in the opener allowed Duggan to regain the No. 1 spot. The Iowa native not only turned in the best season of his career, but his numbers and overall importance to TCU were enough to land him a runner-up finish in Heisman Trophy voting. Duggan was efficient (64.9 percent) and explosive (30 TDs to just four picks) through the air and productive (404 yards and six scores) on the ground. The senior averaged nine yards per attempt in the regular season and led the nation with six completions of 60-plus yards.

Helping Duggan execute a high-powered passing game is a deep receiving corps that's led by Quentin Johnston (53 catches), Taye Barber (34), Derius Davis (35), and Savion Williams (29). This foursome of receivers has combined for 18 touchdowns and 12 catches of 40-plus yards this year.

The combination of Duggan and a deep (and very talented) receiving corps will challenge a Michigan secondary ranked third in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense. The Wolverines allowed only nine passing scores all season and surrendered just six completions of 40-plus yards. Freshman cornerback Will Johnson is a rising star with three picks, and fellow cornerback DJ Turner earned second-team all-conference honors this fall. Safety Rod Moore and nickel Mike Sainristil were also instrumental in keeping opposing passing offenses in check.

In tandem with the secondary, Michigan's front also played a huge role in the overall success of this unit. Led by Mike Morris (11 TFL), Jaylen Harrell (7.5), and Eyabi Okie (6.5), the pass rush recorded 70 tackles for a loss and 36 sacks this season. TCU's front allowed only 23 sacks this season and ranked No. 26 nationally in PFF's pass-blocking metrics for offensive lines. However, against one of the better fronts the Horned Frogs faced (Texas), they surrendered five sacks and 14 tackles for a loss. In addition to pass protection, this group is tasked with clearing rushing lanes against a Wolverines' front holding teams to just 2.92 yards per rush and 85.2 yards a game on the ground. TCU running back Kendre Miller (1,342 yards) is capable of churning out the tough yards or popping a big play, but there may not be much room to run against Michigan's defense.

Keeping TCU's high-powered offense in check for all four quarters is a tough assignment for Michigan. The Wolverines gave up over 300 passing yards in back-to-back games against Ohio State and Purdue but forced turnovers or made teams kick field goals inside the red zone instead of scoring touchdowns. In a battle of strengths, which side can impose its will? Michigan has an edge in the trenches and TCU needs to hold up long enough to allow its receivers to win one-on-one battles. The Wolverines may have to concede some yards in exchange for wins on third down to prevent this game from turning into a back-and-forth shootout.

When Michigan Has the Ball

The gameplan for Michigan is rather obvious: Run the ball and control the pace and flow of the game. The Wolverines have proven they can win a high-scoring back-and-forth game if needed, but Harbaugh would probably prefer to avoid that type of matchup.

The stat sheet quickly emphasizes where the gameplan is going for Harbaugh. Michigan has attempted 560 runs to just 335 passes this year, with only two of 13 games featuring the offense attempting more than 30 passes. Blake Corum's run at the Heisman Trophy was derailed by a season-ending knee injury against Illinois. While losing a 1,463-yard rusher would decimate some offenses, the Wolverines' ground game hasn't missed a beat with Donovan Edwards (872 yards and seven scores) stepping into the No. 1 role. The sophomore brings a little more big-play ability (five of 40-plus yards) into the lineup. The front five of Michigan won the Joe Moore Award as the best offensive line in college football. The combination of Edwards and the Wolverines' starting five up front is a huge challenge for a TCU rush defense that allowed 149.5 yards a game and ranked No. 90 nationally in rush defense success rate this season.

The ground game and winning up front is clearly the point of emphasis, but as showcased in wins against Ohio State and Purdue, quarterback J.J. McCarthy is more than capable of making enough plays to win this game through the air. The first-year starter threw for 2,376 yards and 20 touchdowns to three picks and ranked second in the Big Ten in quarterback rating (155.4) in the regular season. Ronnie Bell is McCarthy's favorite target (56 catches), but Cornelius Johnson (30), Roman Wilson (20), and Andrel Anthony (seven) will be involved on the outside. Also, tight ends Luke Schoonmaker (34 grabs) and Colston Loveland (12) should factor prominently into the passing game.

First-team All-Big 12 cornerbacks Josh Newton and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson anchor TCU's secondary and guided this group to a No. 2 finish in the conference in pass efficiency defense. This unit allowed only two teams — SMU and Kansas — to eclipse 300 passing yards this year. However, opponents did manage 10 completions of 40-plus yards, so there could be some opportunities for Michigan to stretch the field with a few big plays.

If TCU can slow Michigan's rushing attack and get McCarthy into obvious passing downs, it's a win for this defense. But if the Wolverines are controlling the line of scrimmage and Edwards is finding running room on every carry, the Horned Frogs' path to an upset narrows.

Final Analysis

The contrast in styles and which side wins out in that battle is likely to determine this game. Can TCU get Michigan out of its comfort zone and force the Fiesta Bowl into a higher-scoring affair? Or will the Wolverines simply control the line of scrimmage from the first snap and bend on defense between the 20s but not allow touchdowns inside the red zone? With the firepower on the Horned Frogs' offense, a few big plays from Duggan to Johnston won't be a surprise. The guess here is Michigan's edge on the line of scrimmage and the playmaking ability of Edwards and McCarthy takes over in the second half and seals a victory to book a trip to the CFB National Championship on Jan. 9.