NFL DFS: Best DraftKings and FanDuel Predictions and Picks for Week 17

The difficulty with making Week 17 best bets and daily fantasy (DFS) picks is that there is an additional factor we need to consider and that is motivation. Not necessarily player motivation, but team motivation.

We see it already with the Raiders sitting Derek Carr and starting Jarrett Stidham. Even if teams are playing to win, especially those fighting for a playoff spot, they might yank their starters earlier than normal in order to preserve their non-injury status.

If Jacksonville gets a big enough lead, how long will head coach Doug Pederson allow his stud fantasy players to stay in the game? The same is true for Pederson's former team, the Eagles. Will Andy Reid do the same in Kansas City? We can go on and on.

So just be very conscious of the playoff implications and potential scenarios for your various picks this week. Also, be aware that the FanDuel main slate includes the SNF game this week.

Week 17 Positional Rankings: QB I RB I WR I TE I DST I K I Flex

Finally, just our weekly reminder that when I say high-leverage picks I typically mean GPP picks and when I say my safe picks, they are typically cash game picks. I am also assuming that at this point you know what those are. But before we get to those, let's start with my "best bet" of the week.

Best Bet Week 17: OVER 0.5 TDs Demarcus Robinson and George Pickens (+170)

As usual, I'm grabbing a bet not on the main slate for DraftKings, but one that is available on its Sportsbook. I was hoping to find something promotional but as of writing this, nothing grabbed my eye.

So we'll keep this short and sweet. We are basically betting that either Demarcus Robinson or George Pickens score at least one TD on Sunday night. Only the Detroit Lions have allowed more 100-yard days to WRs than the Steelers. More importantly, Pittsburgh has allowed 17 WR touchdowns already this season, fifth in the league. And given that Robinson broke the "WR TD catch-less" streak last week, he's not a bad bet to do it again.

The Ravens meanwhile have allowed the fifth-most WR catches in the league and often have trouble with receivers like Pickens. Pickens, like Robinson, also is coming into Sunday's night game having scored last week.

I really like the chances of either one scoring on Sunday night. I'd hate this bet if it was for both to score at +170, but for either one, it's just tempting enough for me to throw between half a unit and a full unit on it.

Now onto the DFS picks...

Safe Quarterback Week 17 Pick

NONE

I hate to say it, but there's no safe quarterback play this week. I could give you at least three reasons not to play each and every starting QB this week. If I had to pick, I'd probably go with Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, or Aaron Rodgers. In that order.

Last week I suggested Patrick Mahomes and he came through big time. But there is no one I have even three-quarters the confidence that I had in Mahomes last week that I have this week. Sorry, you are on your own this week for a safe QB.

High-Leverage Quarterback Week 17 Pick

Mike White, New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (DK $5400, FD $7000)

And I probably could have listed 10 options here but decided to go with White because of the intangibles. Remember when I mentioned that motivation is huge? Well, the Jets are in a dogfight for a wild-card spot. Throw in White trying to prove he should be the starter next year, and the motivational reasons are sky-high.

Now add the fact that White has 952 passing yards in three games, and I am willing to take a chance on him, especially at his lower salary and especially in GPPs.

Related: Week 17 Start/Sit Advice for QB/TE/DST

Safe Running Back Week 17 Pick

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs. Indianapolis Colts (DK $8000, FD $9200)

My initial thought was to go with Christian McCaffrey here, but I have this feeling that the 49ers will rest McCaffrey after they go up two touchdowns. The Giants meanwhile are on the playoff bubble. They don't HAVE to win, but a win against Indy will make next week's game against Philly less daunting.

Barkley darted for 133 and 120 yards from scrimmage in his past two games respectively. He also scored in each as well. Last week, Austin Ekeler scored two touchdowns against the Colts. I would not be shocked to see Barkley have a similar day. At this cost, he might even be slightly underpriced, to be honest.

High-Leverage Running Back Week 17 Pick

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns (DK $5200, FD $6900)

I like at least half-a-dozen options in that $5K to $6K range on DraftKings, but I fear many such as Tyler Allgeier and Zonovan Knight will be too heavily owned. But I expect Robinson to be far less owned, making him a high-leverage play.

Robinson has been solid and the Cleveland run defense hasn't. Robinson was contained pretty handily by the 49ers last week, but San Francisco contains nearly all RBs. But he had 185 rushing yards in the two previous games combined. Cleveland meanwhile is allowing the third-most fantasy points to RBs this season.

Let others grab Allgeier or Knight. I'm taking Robinson.

Related: Week 17 Start/Sit Advice for RB/WR

Safe Wide Receiver Week 17 Pick

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (DK $7800, FD $8400)

Earlier this week, I admitted I was wrong on ARSB and I've now happily taken a seat on his bandwagon. And as I get comfortable, I love seeing stats like he has 132 of Detroit's 395 WR targets.

Not only is ARSB a target hog, but Jared Goff also seems to look for him in our favorite part of the field. In the last four games, St. Brown has a dozen targets in the red zone, which might help explain why he has half a dozen TDs already.

Not only is St. Brown a stud, but Detroit gets a cushy matchup against the Bears this Sunday. Against wide receivers specifically, Chicago is 29th in adjusted fantasy points per target. I also will remind you that ARSB lit up the Chicago secondary earlier this year, catching 10 passes for 119 yards.

The books also have Detroit with 29 implied points, the highest total this week. Given ARSB's high frequency of targets, he's my favorite cash game option this week.

High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 17 Pick

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK $4700, FD $5900)

If Christian Watson is out, this might not be such a high-leverage pick. But given how strong Doubs has looked lately, I am having a hard time leaving him out as my third WR in most of my GPP lineups. And the fact that his price tag actually went down this week makes him even more attractive.

Doubs missed a big chunk of the season, but he has really come on lately, having seen 11 targets in the last two games. He's averaging double-digit yards per reception. Now add onto all of that the fact that Minnesota is allowing the most fantasy points to WRs this season and you understand why I have trouble avoiding Doubs.

Safe Tight End Week 17 Pick

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos (DK $8100, FD $8300)

I'm not going to waste your time or mine telling you why Kelce is worth playing any given week. What I will tell you is that some will fear playing him against Denver and you shouldn't. Denver has surprisingly allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to TEs this season. The Broncos have allowed the fourth-most receptions, as well as the fourth-most yards to the position.

Play Kelce.

High-Leverage Tight End Week 17 Pick

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints (DK $4700, FD $6000)

What I love about this pick is regardless of who plays QB for the Eagles this week, Goedert should still be peppered with targets. And I hope that little "red 1" under OPRK scares some folks away because I like Goedert a lot this week.

Goedert's cumulative stats don't look so good, but his per-game stats look great. He's averaging more than five targets and more than 60 yards per game, as well as more than 13 yards per catch. Just for reference, Goedert's YPR is even better than the aforementioned Travis Kelce.

Goedert's floor is obviously lower than Kelce's, but his ceiling is just as high. Take a shot.

Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 17 Pick

San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders (DK $2900, FD $5000)

Shootin' fish in a barrel easy. Derek Carr is out. Davante Adams might not play either. San Fran has the best run defense in the league. Throw in the ridiculously low price on DK and I'm not sure how you cannot play the 49ers on DK in cash games. But they're a pretty easy play on FanDuel too.

High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 17 Pick

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints (DK $4000, FD $4400)

Folks rarely pay up for DSTs unless it is obvious and this is far from obvious. And yes, the Eagles are the most expensive, but the price is not actually outrageous for a team that has 25 sacks over the last four games.

Unless you think Andy Dalton will carve up the Eagles?

Yeah, me neither. I'm happy to spend up and grab the Eagles on DK. And pay even less proportionally for them on FD as well.

Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:

QB: Desmond Ridder, Davis Mills, Sam Darnold

RB: Khalil Herbert, Kenneth Gainwell, Joshua Kelly

WR: Rashid Shaheed, Greg Dortch, Olamide Zaccheaus

TE: Jelani Woods, Trey McBride, Shane Zylstra

— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.