NFL DFS: Best DraftKings and FanDuel Predictions and Picks for Week 16

Not done with your holiday DFS shopping? Consider picking up some shares of Terry McLaurin.

Author:
Mark Strausberg
Publish date:
Dec 23, 2022

I am sitting here writing the Week 16 best bets and daily fantasy (DFS) picks as there is a dusting of snow on the ground, the temperature outside is close to single digits, and the wind is blowing so hard that the windows and shutters are rattling.

Yup, it's December! And that means time for December football. And the amount of debate I have seen this week about the impact of the weather is at a season high (weak pun intended).

Here's the bottom line. It is so situation-specific, and I don't just mean the game and the weather. I mean the actual player. Carson Wentz for example is a far better player in cold weather proportionally than Jameis Winston because he has so much more experience in those conditions. Or to go back a few years, Eddie Lacy was built to play in the extreme conditions of Lambeau Field with all that extra "padding" he had. But he was one of the worst players in 97-degree heat.

So certainly consider the weather when making your DFS decisions this week. But it doesn't need to be the be-all and end-all that some "experts" want you to believe.

Week 16 Positional Rankings: QB I RB I WR I TE I DST I K I Flex

Speaking of believing, if you are reading this you likely believe I know what am I doing. Or at least are looking for more evidence that I don't. I'm just going to assume it's the latter. I'm also going to assume you know by now that when I say high-leverage picks I typically mean GPP picks and when I say my safe picks, they are typically cash game picks. I am also assuming that at this point you know what those are. But before we get to those, let's start with my "best bet" of the week.

Best Bet Week 16: Mike Williams and Keenan Allen Both to Score a TD (+450)

Yes, I wanted to grab a bet that is not on our main slate. However, one of the many things I hope you take away from my articles is how to bet better or at least smarter. And this bet found on DraftKings is a good example of why you should be careful with some of the various sites' "quick bets" and/or "promotional bets."

For DK's "Fresh from the Field" under their Weekly Specials, they have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen to each have a TD catch... at +350!

But if you simply go place a same game parlay on the Monday night game (on the exact same site mind you) you can get this very same bet at +450! I'll take the extra +100 thank you. Furthermore, you'll notice the one at the lower payout says receiving TD. The higher payout one is just anytime TD. So if Allen catches a TD but Williams'score comes on an end around or some sort of running play, the higher payout bet hits while the lower will not. Just a great example of "doing your homework."

And yes, I like this to hit. Indianapolis' defense looked pretty good in the first half of the season, but in the last five or six games, this secondary has been Swiss cheese. Only one team (the Chiefs) has given up more TD passes in the last three weeks than the Colts.

Given how much better the Chargers have looked recently, I'm happy to put anywhere between half a unit and a unit-and-a-half on it. Now onto the DFS picks...

Note: All players mentioned below are part of the Saturday, Dec. 24 slate.

Safe Quarterback Week 16 Pick

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks (DK $8400, FD $9200)

The books set this game's over/under at 49.5, the second-highest total of the week. The Seahawks' pass defense has been pretty good lately, but I'm happy to bet on Mahomes accounting for at least two touchdowns and 300 passing yards. Don't make this complicated.

High-Leverage Quarterback Week 16 Pick

Daniel Jones, New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (DK $5600, FD $7400)

I get it, choosing Danny Dimes makes you squirm and cringe more than seeing your grandparents make out. But I often say that when it comes to taking down a GPP, you have to "embrace the uncomfortable." And that is Jones.

But he's been better than you think. Jones is completing two-thirds of his passes and has a nifty 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio. The above Tweet tells you a lot too. But while Jones is having his most accurate year throwing the ball, he still remains a threat with his legs. He has nearly 600 rushing yards and five rushing TDs on the year.

The Vikings meanwhile finally halted their four-game streak last week of allowing teams to pass for more than 300 yards against them. Given that was against the Colts, I'm not exactly impressed. I have a strong inclination that the Vikes won't have the same level of success against Jones and the Giants' passing game.

Safe Running Back Week 16 Pick

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (DK $8600, FD $9800)

If this pick was any chalkier, we would have to write it in white ink. I could talk about how good the Texans' pass defense has been, or how weak the Titans' passing attack is that they will have to lean heavily on Henry. But sometimes the numbers really speak for themselves. Here are Henry's last four games vs Houston:

32 att., 211 yds., 3 TDs
22 att., 212 yds., 2 TDs
34 att., 250 yds., 2 TDs
32 att., 219 yds., 2 TDs

'Nuff said.

High-Leverage Running Back Week 16 Pick

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK $5800, FD $7000)

After that totally gross game last week, very few will touch the Ravens this week. That's a mistake.

Dobbins was one of the few bright spots in Baltimore's loss to Cleveland last Saturday, turning 13 carries into 125 rushing yards or almost 10 yards a carry! And not only did he look good last week cutting up the Browns, but he's also not on the injury report this week.

That's very bad news for Atlanta, who is giving up the 11th-most rushing yards to RBs. I'm not a big weather guy. But given the forecast for Baltimore this weekend, plus what the Ravens like to do (and still no Lamar Jackson), expect Dobbins to be heavily involved on Saturday.

Safe Wide Receiver Week 16 Pick

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (DK $7100, FD $8000)

If this game is going to get to 50 points, I promise you that Metcalf contributes to the Seattle side. As I mentioned above, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. And as I also mentioned, no team has allowed more TD catches than Kansas City. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this season.

I will also remind you that Metcalf has nearly 80 catches for more than 900 yards and six touchdowns. And that's sharing targets with the talented Tyler Lockett. Lockett is out this week because of a hand injury that required surgery. Lock Metcalf into your cash lineups.

High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 16 Pick

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders at San Francisco (DK $6200, FD $7000)

Playing anyone against the 49ers is a risky move. But we are getting a Pro Bowl receiver at a highly discounted price. Also, the 49ers might not be as good against the pass as you might think. They are actually the 13th-most generous defense when it comes to fantasy points allowed to WRs.

McLaurin is already over the 1,000-yard mark and has 24 targets over his last three games. McLaurin should never be this price. Take advantage of the holiday savings!

Safe Tight End Week 16 Pick

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks (DK $8000, FD $8600)

If you don't know why Kelce is the safest TE pick you really shouldn't be playing DFS this weekend. I'm not wasting any time on this. Let's move on, shall we?

High-Leverage Tight End Week 16 Pick

George Kittle, San Fransisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders (DK $5300, FD $7000)

I think people are going to look at the little red 1 next to the opponents' rank and immediately move on to cheaper options. I will be spreading my TE position out over a number of different options. However, I will certainly have at least 20 percent shares of Kittle. And I don't see his overall ownership being even half that. And that makes him an incredible leverage pick.

Because all Kittle did last week was catch four passes that he turned into 93 yards and two touchdowns. Deebo Samuel is out again this week, meaning that at worst Kittle will be Brock Purdy's second look. Kittle makes for a nifty leverage pick.

Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 16 Pick

Cincinnati Bengals at New England (DK $4000, FD $3400)

Despite facing All-Pros like Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady in two of the last three games, the Bengals have three INTs, three fumble recoveries, and five sacks in those matchups (and won both). Meanwhile, New England is averaging less than 20 points per game over its past five contests (2-3 in that span). Furthermore, the Patriots are losing 1.3 fumbles a game, tossing 0.8 INTs a game, and giving up 2.4 sacks per game.

There are certainly higher ceiling plays this week, but Cincy has one of the highest floors this week and a salary that's hard to beat.

High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 16 Pick

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (DK $2500, FD $3600)

I will tell you right now that the Texans are going to give up a TD or two, probably at least one to Derrick Henry (see above). But let's assume they give up 17 points. That's not that much and this DST should easily add points in other ways.

As the Tweet above mentions, Houston's D hasn't been that bad. Over the last three games, the Texans are tied for fourth in takeaways. Meanwhile, in that same span, Tennessee has surrendered 4.7 sacks per game, the second-worst showing in the league behind Denver.

I love this as a salary-saving, high-leverage, sneaky DST pick.

Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:

QB: Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy

RB: James Cook, Travis Homer, Khalil Herbert

WR: Rashid Shaheed, Olamide Zaccheaus, Justin Watson, Jameson Williams

TE: Daniel Bellinger, Jordan Akins

— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.