NFL DFS: Week 15 Saturday Games Best Bets, Captain Picks, and Flex Options for DraftKings and FanDuel

J.K. Dobbins has missed a lot of time this season but he can still be a fantasy difference-maker down the stretch.

Author:
Mark Strausberg
Publish date:
Dec 16, 2022

I definitely like the Saturday NFL games. I agree, they shouldn't do them during the college football season. But between the regular season and bowl season, that's a perfect time to do them! And therefore, we bring you a special edition of daily fantasy (DFS) picks and best bets for Saturday, Dec. 17.

We have three games on tap. The Colts will be in Minneapolis to take on the Vikings for a 1 p.m. ET game. The Browns then host the hated Ravens in an AFC North clash at 4:30 p.m. ET. And the day ends with another big divisional game with the Bills hoping to freeze out the Dolphins at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Anytime we have a set of three games on a different day, you can bank on something unexpected happening. You can also bank on having at least one of the three games being a close, entertaining contest to watch. Sometimes those two different expectations are one and the same. Others they're not. Typically at least one favorite covers and at least one underdog wins outright or at least beats the spread.

So how does that impact our bets and DFS picks? Glad you asked. Like I did for the Thanksgiving slate, I am going to give you my picks for each "Showdown" or "single game" slate on Saturday. For each game, I will mention my favorite MVP or Captain pick, depending on which site you prefer, followed by two or three of my favorite flex picks.

Week 15 Positional Rankings: QB I RB I WR I TE I DST I K I Flex

But before we get into all the DFS decisions, let's start with my favorite bet for Saturday.

Anytime TD Scorers Parlay (+1032): Justin Jefferson (-130), J.K. Dobbins (+220), and Stefon Diggs (+100)

There are probably some better bets out there, to be honest, but when I submitted this there were no promotional bets I could find that grabbed me. However, I did some of the leg work for you. I found the bet above on FanDuel, which has much better odds on all three of those studs to score than say DraftKings sports book and some of the other books out there.

This is also a pretty simple bet. I'll throw a quarter of a unit on the bet as a whole, and then throw another quarter of a unit on each of the 2x3 wagers in a Robin Robin for a total of one unit.

If even that is too aggressive for you, simply bet on the individual legs. Jefferson is a very attractive option given he has four touchdowns over the last six games and is simply one of the best WRs in the game. Dobbins is a much tougher piece to swallow, but I like him to score (see below in the DFS section) and it adds some value to our bet. And Stefon Diggs is tied with Davante Adams for the second-most TDs amongst WRs this season with 10.

I would be surprised if we don't hit at least two legs if not all three and at over 10x the wager, I like the action! Onto this week's DFS picks.

First Game: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. ET)

Captain/MVP Pick: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts

I am trying to fathom a scenario where the Colts do not look to go to their WRs, and I can't. First off, I expect the Vikes to jump out in front, forcing the Colts to go to the air to catch up. However, even if that doesn't happen, the Vikings are definitely a defense that pushes opposing offenses to pass. (I'm not using the "F word." The one that rhymes with "tunnel.") That is especially true as of late. Minnesota is allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game in its last three, putting the Vikings in the top 10 for that stat. However, in their last three games, they have allowed more than 353 passing yards per game, which is the most in the league.

So expect all Indy pass catchers to be heavily involved in the Colts' game plan. And we might as well start with their best option, Pittman. He leads the team with 76 catches for 755 yards and two touchdowns. He has three games with double-digit targets and I would be surprised if he doesn't add a fourth on Saturday.

Flex Options

T.J. Hockenson is the easy play along with Kirk Cousins. Since arriving in the Twin Cities back in Week 9, Cousins has targeted Hockenson 48 times for an average of eight per game. Cousins has seen his passing numbers rise, culminating in a season-best 425 passing yards last week.

But if you are looking for the deeper pick, I'd go with Jelani Woods. After exploding in Week 12 for eight catches for 98 receiving yards, the rookie tight end was questionable for Week 13 with both shoulder and quad issues. However, he still managed to catch a couple of passes for 28 yards. Indy was on bye last week, so Woods had an additional week to heal. I expect the ownership to be low on Woods, making him a great high-leverage play.

Second Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (4:30 p.m. ET)

Captain/MVP Pick: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens

Baltimore is a good defense, so I'm not stacking Browns. But let's consider what we are looking at with the Ravens' offense. Lamar Jackson is out. Tyler Huntley has cleared concussion protocol and will likely start. I like Huntley but he is basically a poor man's Lamar Jackson. He can scramble, but has a little less arm strength than Jackson. I am expecting Baltimore to let its running game and defense do the heavy lifting.

Because the Cleveland run defense, simply put, is not good. The Browns are the third-most generous team when it comes to allowing fantasy points to running backs. Dobbins still looks a little gimpy to me. However, in two games against Cleveland in his career, Dobbins has three TDs. I'm willing to bank on him finding the end zone again Saturday.

Flex Options

The problem with Justin Tucker is that he's never going to have the upside that the other position players will. But for any Ravens showdown game, you basically have to put him in your lineup for the guaranteed six to 15 points he'll give you every game. We need to have a Cleveland option, and I really like Donovan Peoples-Jones in this game. The Ravens' passing defense has been slightly better recently, but they are still giving up 249 passing yards per game. DPJ meanwhile caught a season-high eight passes on a season-high dozen targets last Sunday. Expect the momentum to continue.

Third Game: Miami at Buffalo (8:15 p.m. ET)

Captain/MVP Pick: Dawson Knox, TE, Bills

This is a pure GPP play. The cash play is Stefon Diggs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his captaincy ownership at over a third. No thanks. But I like Knox a lot here. For starters, Knox is starting to heat up and as you can see above, he somersaulted into the end zone last week.

Secondly, the Dolphins' defense has not been good against tight ends. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position this season. Add in the savings we get on Knox, and he's my favorite play at the top of a lineup on Saturday night.

Flex Options

Quick, how many wide receivers can you name who have played every one of their team's games and had a catch in each and every game? Gabe Davis? Nope, hasn't played every Bills game. But Trent Sherfield has for Miami (not Tyreek Hill, sorry). He could be a sneaky pivot. No, I'm not paying the premium for Josh Allen in my Captain spot nor do I want to get lost in the pack that has him as captain. But I will employ him as a flex, as I would be surprised if he doesn't match his per-game averages of 273 passing yards and two touchdowns.

— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.