NFL DFS: Week 15 Best Bets, High Leverage, and Safe Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Keenan Allen is back to his productive self since returning from injury.

Author:
Mark Strausberg
Publish date:
Dec 17, 2022

The NFL Week 15 best bets and daily fantasy (DFS) picks arrive with some welcome news – no more byes!

My distaste for the NFL regular-season "byes" extends beyond my DFS lineups and bets, however. I also take a little umbrage with that term. A bye is the "preferential status of a team not paired with a competitor in an early round of a competition and thus automatically advanced to play in the next round."

So if all 32 teams get a "bye," where's the preferential status? And how is Week 14 of the regular season an "early round?" Those No. 1 seeds that get a "bye" in the playoffs? That is the correct usage. But I am asking the NFL to change the use of the term "bye" for a week off for a team in the NFL to something else. The odds of that happening, I know, are slim to none.

Week 15 Positional Rankings: QB I RB I WR I TE I DST I K I Flex

Speaking of odds, back to the best bets and DFS picks.

As a reminder, high-leverage picks are typically my GPP picks and my safe picks are typically cash game picks. I presume at this point you know what those are. But before we get to those, let's start with my "best bet" of the week.

Best Bet Week 15: Brian Robinson Jr. 25+ Rushing Yards in Each Half (+155)

I will remind you that first and foremost, I try to find a bet on one of our games that is not on our main slate. This FanDuel special certainly qualifies as part of the SNF game, but I like it a lot.

The first thing to consider is will Brian Robinson Jr. even rush for 50-plus yards total? Given that he is averaging more than 62 yards per game and has done so in his last four games, the historic trend is definitely there. Plus, he's coming in strong with his last two games totaling over 200 rushing yards.

Furthermore, he's coming off a bye, so he and his OL should be far more rested than the Giants, who had theirs over a month ago. The Giants also are allowing 123 rushing yards per game just to RBs. I don't expect Robinson to get all the carries, but he should get at least enough to get to 75 yards, maybe more.

So, we got strong trends, a good player, and a decent matchup. But when I make these bets, I'm always looking for the catch or the pitfall. The "each half" part was gnawing at me. But I looked at his splits and they are not too bad. But they do tilt a little toward the first half than the second half. I would bet huge amounts of money he gets 25 yards in the first half, so I'm not worried about that part. And if you get a cash-out offer after the first half that gives you a profit, take it.

But I definitely think Robinson rumbles for 25 yards in the second half too. He has 301 second-half rushing yards in nine games, so 25 yards in the second half is not a very high bar.

I love this bet. I have already thrown a unit on it and might even do more before game time. Onto the DFS picks...

Safe Quarterback Week 15 Pick

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (DK $7200, FD $8300)

I've been saying for weeks that the Titans' secondary is not that good and folks are finally realizing I'm right. They are currently allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. And I don't see that changing this week against Herbert, who finally has his top two WRs back. He's returned to his Pro Bowl form and I believe he tears up the Titans this week.

Even if he doesn't have a ceiling game, no one has a better floor this week than Herbert and he's not even one of the top three most expensive options. He's an obvious cash game play.

High-Leverage Quarterback Week 15 Pick

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK $7000, FD $8000)

The good news is that Burrow has been looking far better than he did earlier in the season. Of course, having Ja'Marr Chase back doesn't hurt.

Many still think of Tampa Bay as a great defense, but the Buccaneers are middle of the pack statistically. The way Burrow is playing right now, don't be surprised if Tampa Bay quickly falls from atop the NFC South.

Safe Running Back Week 15 Pick

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (DK $7100, FD $8200)

This selection is more about fading some of the more expensive options than it is so much about Pollard. Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs have tough matchups. Derrick Henry's matchup looks pretty good, but it seems like teams are stacking the box against the Titans more and more. I like Henry's floor, but his price is based more upon his ceiling and he just feels overpriced to me.

Pollard meanwhile has seen a bit of a hit to his numbers since Ezekiel Elliott returned, but he is still putting up double-digit fantasy points. His production in the passing game alone gives him a decent floor.

High-Leverage Running Back Week 15 Pick

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK $6800, FD $7600)

Kamara is coming back from a bye and it was an ugly stretch before that. He fumbled twice in Week 12 and hasn't scored a TD since Week 8. However, he also scored three touchdowns in that game, so we know a ceiling-level performance is still there.

And I like his chances to bounce back against Atlanta this week. The Falcons are allowing the eighth-most rushing yards and the 11th-most TDs to RBs this season. Kamara still has a decent weekly average for fantasy points, and I expect him to surpass that this week.

Safe Wide Receiver Week 15 Pick

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (DK $6800, FD $8000)

So basically everything I said for Justin Herbert can also be said for Allen. The Titans are allowing both the third-most receiving yards and the third-most catches. Even worse, they have allowed wideouts to score the second-most touchdowns as well.

Meanwhile, since coming back in November, Allen has notched a touchdown or 92 receiving yards each week. He's averaging double-digit targets and seven receptions a game since then as well. He's an easy play this week.

High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 15 Pick

Davante Adams, Los Angeles Raiders vs. New England Patriots (DK $9000, FD $8500)

Between his price and a tough matchup, Adams is going to see his ownership dip.

But Adams remains matchup-proof. He absolutely ate up the Chargers for 40-plus standard fantasy points two weeks ago. Of course, the Chargers' secondary is a little suspect. And in Week 11 against Denver one of the better defenses in the league, he had 36 standard fantasy points. Adams is a spectacular leverage play this week.

Safe Tight End Week 15 Pick

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals (DK $3600, FD $5600)

Dulcich was a leverage pick last week, but has moved into safe pick territory. Dulcich is surprisingly affordable and has eight targets each of the last two weeks. That's quite a few for a tight end. And with Courtland Sutton again out, expect Dulcich to be heavily targeted.

Furthermore, Dulcich has the luxury of facing Arizona this week, who has given up the most fantasy points to TEs this season.

High-Leverage Tight End Week 15 Pick

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (DK $3300, FD $5200)

Over the last seven weeks, Henry has been alternating back and forth between good games and bad games. Last week, he had three catches which he turned into a very solid 70 yards. But I think he bucks the trend this week and has back-to-back solid games.

Only four teams have allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than the Raiders. Call it a hunch, but I think Henry scores this week, making him a decent value at this salary.

Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 15 Pick

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (DK $3900, FD $4800)

The Eagles are one of the highest-scoring fantasy DSTs on this slate and get an easy matchup against the Bears. Don't make this complicated.

High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 15 Pick

Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals (DK $2700, FD $3700)

I'll admit, this might not actually be a "high leverage" play and could be very popular. However, there are so many strong DST options at the top, Denver might be a little overlooked. And the Broncos are one of the best defenses in the league.

The Cardinals are DONE. I'm expecting a huge day for Denver's DST.

Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:

QB: Desmond Ridder, Davis Mills, Mac Jones

RB: Dare Ogunbowale, Jerrick McKinnon, Boston Scott

WR: Chris Moore, Jarvis Landry, Elijah Moore

TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Jordan Akins

— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.