NFL DFS: Week 14 Best Bets, High Leverage, and Safe Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Some weeks, you just have to play the studs no matter the cost.

Author:
Mark Strausberg
Publish date:
Dec 10, 2022

I bring you the NFL Week 14 best bets and daily fantasy (DFS) picks with a bit of important news you might have missed but could be very relevant. Apparently, DraftKings is changing how you achieve their statuses... again.

Ignoring the lack of stability, I did some quick math and it's going to cost more money to achieve the various levels. I am not happy at all. Granted, it's DK's prerogative to change its loyalty program, but it's annoying. I am going to have to rethink my entry strategy on DraftKings.

Take a look at it for yourself and see how this change impacts you. I was thoroughly enjoying my 2022 status, but apparently, that will be going away. Sigh...

Week 14 Positional Rankings: QB I RB I WR I TE I DST I K I Flex

Teams on bye: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Washington

Well, at least it won't take effect until 2023. In the meantime, we'll look at this slate. Like last week, we have quite a few injuries wreaking havoc on the slate (and six teams are on bye), providing some potential value plays as well as a slew of questions.

Before we get to that, however, let's start with this week's best bet. And since I'm a little perturbed with DraftKings, we will go with one of FanDuel's weekly specials this week.

Best Bet Week 14: Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb to Combine for 3+ TDs (+550)

Let's set the stage first, shall we? Dallas is a heavy favorite this week, as in 17 points. Their implied total is 30 or more points. Given that the Texans gave up 27 points to the Browns in Houston last week and 30 points in Miami last week, it's not a big stretch of the imagination to picture Dallas scoring 30-plus on Sunday.

And yes, I realize it could be five or six FGs and two touchdowns, but given that Dallas is scoring 3.7 TDs per game at home this year, I like the Boys' chances of scoring at least four offensive TDs. After their whupping of Indianapolis last week (who I think we can agree is a better team than Houston), Dallas now averaging more than five TDs a game in the last three contests. I would be kind of surprised if the Cowboys don't score at least four TDs.

Let's start with the Tony Pollard piece. He could get three all by himself. And I will remind you he already has a three-TD game earlier this season. Pollard is on an absolute tear right now, having scored eight TDs just in his last five games. This also is a dream matchup for him as Houston has allowed the league's most fantasy points to RBs this season. Much of that is TD-driven. Along with the Chicago Bears, the Texans have allowed a league-worst 14 rushing touchdowns to RBs alone. Three TDs is being a little greedy but it's not hard to fathom Pollard scoring two touchdowns on Sunday.

And that brings us to Lamb. He's not quite as hot as Pollard is, but he does have three touchdowns since Week 10. He is tied for eighth amongst all WRs for touchdowns this season. But he needs to obviously get the targets this week. However, given that he has literally half of all the Dallas WR targets this season, he should be heavily targeted once again. He's averaging over nine targets a game, including an average of one red zone target a game. I definitely like Lamb's chances of catching at least one in the end zone on Sunday.

I may have laid out a pretty strong case for this bet, but the chances of this bet are still well under 50/50. A probability of even 20 percent might still be too high. But at five-and-a-half to one, I'm willing to take that chance.

Onto the DFS picks...

Safe Quarterback Week 14 Pick

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK $6100, FD $7500)

With the questions surrounding some of the pricier QB options this week, I can promise you that Cousins will be heavily owned. He's probably not a great pick for GPPs, but I absolutely love him for cash games this weekend.

First off, Cousins has been extremely solid this season. He is part of the reason the Vikings are atop the NFC North. He is averaging just a little under 250 passing yards a game with a solid 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Of course, having one of the best WRs in the game in Justin Jefferson doesn't hurt.

But I also like this matchup for Cousins as well. The Detroit defense had one of its better games last week against Jacksonville but is still the most generous team when it comes to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Cousins has a fairly high ceiling this week, but unquestionably one of the best floors.

High-Leverage Quarterback Week 14 Pick

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (DK $8100, FD $8700)

And with so many entries featuring Kirk Cousins, the chance to get a QB like Hurts at lower ownership levels is beautiful. He's not even the priciest option this week on either site. Frankly, I am a little surprised, but I'll take the savings.

Hurts has seen his fantasy output rise each of the last five weeks and if the trend continues we will be looking at an output of close to 40 points on either site. Do I think that's going to happen? No. But another showing in the neighborhood of 30 looks very possible.

After starting strong, the Giants have given up 79 points over their last three games. Their secondary is not scaring anyone. They have just four INTs this season, the second-fewest total in the league. Mix in Hurts' 20:3 TD-to-INT ratio, plus his incredible running ability (600-plus rushing yards and nine TDs). Finally, despite the limited savings, his cost might still drive many away, giving us a huge upside leverage play.

Safe Running Back Week 14 Pick

Derek Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK $7900, FD $9000)

King Henry has 11 TDs in 12 games. The Jaguars have allowed just one less in 12 games. Think we might see a Henry TD in this game?

And you may have forgotten already, but Henry absolutely DESTROYS the Jaguars. Henry has 1,143 rushing yards in 11 career games vs. the Jags. Not only does he average more than 100 yards per game, but he also has steamrolled to 14 rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville.

I can't be certain, but there are rumors that the Duval County Sheriff's office has a warrant out for Henry. There is a mountain of evidence against him, having bruised and burned quite a few Jaguars while on the field.

Expect the Jacksonville serial killer to continue his rampage.

High-Leverage Running Back Week 14 Pick

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DK $8000, FD $8200)

Barkley is this week's proof that the scoring system matters. On DraftKings, Barkley is $100 more than Derrick Henry, but on FanDuel he's $800 less. Either way, I like him as a pivot this week.

The Eagles might be flying high right now, but Washington showed how much the Eagles can struggle with the ground game. And should Barkley be good to go for this game, he should see plenty of action. However, right now he is listed as questionable (neck), but that actually could limit his ownership.

Presuming he plays, I am happy to roll with Barkley who has more than 1,000 rushing yards already, eight TDs, and four 100-yard games.

Safe Wide Receiver Week 14 Pick

Justin Jefferson, Vikings (DK $9000, FD $9300) and Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (DK $7800, FD $8400) at Detroit

Sorry, I can't just pick one. Both of these guys are studs, averaging more than 38 PPR fantasy points per week combined. And both have a plush matchup against one another's defense. Both the Vikings and the Lions are in the top five of the most generous teams when it comes to allowing fantasy points to WRs.

The books have the over/under for this game set at 51 points, with just a two-point spread. They are obviously expecting an aerial show. Simply put, I agree and you are going to want pieces in this game. Ain't nothing wrong with taking the studs in it.

High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 14 Pick

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (DK $6600, FD $7600)

People STILL don't realize how good of a year Kirk has been having. This is nearly the most expensive he's been all season and he's still a bargain. His floor is a little scary, like his Week 5 performance when he caught just one pass for 11 yards. But he just came off his seventh game of half a dozen or more catches and has 20-plus standard points upside.

The Titans meanwhile are a paradise for wide receivers in fantasy football. They have allowed a league-worst 506-plus PPR fantasy points to WRs this year. That's 28 more points than the next-closest team (Minnesota). I think we are far less likely to see a shaky floor game from Kirk than an ethereal ceiling game this weekend.

Safe Tight End Week 14 Pick

T.J.Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK $5100, FD $6500)

Yes, another Viking. There are reasons to fade this game in GPPs, but you are going to want pieces of this game in cash games. And do really want to spend up for Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews this week? I wouldn't.

It's not like Hockenson is some scrub either. He is currently the No. 3 tight end in fantasy football, less than a point per game behind Andrews but nearly 2.5 points per game ahead of the No. 4 TE, Pat Freiermuth. Hockenson has 56 catches for 620 yards.

He should easily add to that against Detroit, who is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to TEs this season.

High-Leverage Tight End Week 14 Pick

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (DK $3000, FD $4800)

Playing any Denver Bronco offensive player right now is a huge gamble. But this tweet grabbed my attention:

With Cortland Sutton ruled out already, it makes sense that the Broncos would use Dulcich in more of a WR role. He is averaging nearly four catches a game as a TE and has an impressive 12.8 yards per reception.

And Kansas City struggles against WRs, having given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs this season. Should Dulcich get an additional dozen snaps lining up at WR, I love his chances to provide value at his salary this week.

Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 14 Pick

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans (DK $3800, FD $5200)

Houston is averaging less than 280 yards per game of offense, the lowest total in the league. The Texans are managing just 15.7 points per game, the second-lowest average in the league. The Cowboys meanwhile allow 17.2 points per game, making them the No. 3 scoring defense. Dallas also has generated 21 takeaways, which is the second-highest total.

Saying Dallas is a strong play is an understatement.

High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 14 Pick

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $3300, FD $5100)

On both sites, the Ravens have scored the fifth-most fantasy points per game of any DST. Yet this DST is priced like only the eighth- or ninth-best option this week. I guess it makes sense given the juggernaut offensive foe Baltimore plays this week.

Wait, what's that you say? The Steelers have scored the third-fewest TDs in the league this season? And they have allowed the third-most sacks this season, nearly three a game? Perhaps it doesn't make sense.

Throw in the fact that Patrick Queen, Baltimore's leading tackler two years ago, might be coming back from his injury, maybe, just maybe, you should consider the Ravens DST for your DFS lineup this week.

Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:

QB: Kenny Pickett, Jared Goff

RB: Gus Edwards, D'Onta Foreman, James Cook

WR: Chris Moore, K.J. Osborn, Jameson Williams

TE: Grant Calcaterra, Isaiah Likely

— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.