NFL DFS: Week 11 Best Bets, High Leverage, and Safe Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

The NFL Week 11 Best Bets and daily fantasy (DFS) picks will start this week with a little parable. As many of you know, I am a father. And I am a father of multiple children who despite the same exact genetic combination, are quite individual in their personalities. A good example of this is when my children ask me a question and I respond kiddingly with an answer that is obviously false. For example, the question might be "Where's Mom?" and I might say, "She packed a bag earlier today and said she never wants to see any of us again."

My eldest will simply respond with "whatever" and move on with their life, essentially ignoring me, and decide it really isn't that important to know. Meanwhile, my middle child in true middle child fashion will take it personally and respond dramatically, "Really Dad? Why can't you just give a simple answer?" and the next thing I know I'm suddenly a big jerk. The third child, however, having seen this situation unfold previously, often plays along mockingly while taking a swipe at me – "That's too bad, especially for you, as I guess you are going to have to drive us everywhere now."

Are any of them wrong to respond the way they do? Sure, I'd like the first to care a little more, the second to care a little less, and the third not to be so sassy. But I don't fault any one of them for responding how they do. The point here is that there are quite a few ways to go about something and without knowing the actual answer, none are really wrong. So is true when it comes to predicting football outcomes.

Week 11 Positional Rankings: QB I RB I WR I TE I DST I K I Flex

Teams on bye: Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay

There are always a lot of opinions and approaches to predict what happens. But until we know what actually happens, can any of us say this opinion is any better than that one? This is not an excuse nor support for anything I tell you. I just find it fascinating where my opinions overlap with other "experts" and where it deviates.

Anyway, after another successful week, it's time for the usual reminder, that in addition to my best bet, I will give you "safe picks" and "high leverage" picks. Those more or less equate to "cash game" picks and GPP picks for those familiar with what those are. Let's get to it!

Week 11's Best Bet: Both Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor to each record 100+ Rushing Yards (+900)

This bet is one of FanDuel's "weekly specials." These bets generally don't hit, but I absolutely love this one for multiple reasons.

First off, do each of these players have this in them? Well, Cook certainly does having rushed for 100-plus in two of his last three games. Taylor is also coming off another 100-yard day, going for 147 against Las Vegas last week. He's only played seven games this season, but that was his second game breaking the century mark. I'm not sure we should even count his 10 games doing it last year. But the bottom line is that both of these players have proven the ability to do so. The next question we have to ask, however, is what about the matchups?

Cook and Taylor are taking on Dallas and Philadelphia respectively, and both have been two of the better defenses in the league. However, it is their pass defenses that have been getting the job done, not their run defenses. Both are in the bottom half of the league in preventing rushing yards to their opponents. Philadelphia is allowing just under 125 rushing yards per game, a number that jumps up to 154 yards over the last three. Dallas meanwhile is allowing 143.1 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them 29th in the league, and has fared even worse lately (188 ypg over last three). So yes, these defenses can both be run on.

Finally, while FanDuel does not have rushing props out yet, with just a touch of research we find that Taylor is -115 to have over 85 yards. Cook has a somewhat similar number at -115 to have over 78 yards. Bumping that yardage number to 100, good chance we would see Taylor around +220 and Cook around +250. Individually, the books are telling us there is about a 45 percent and 40 percent chance of each of those happening. But at +900, FD is putting it right around 11 percent. I see this as more like 15-20 percent likely happening, therefore I think we are some decent value here.

I wouldn't go wagering multiple units on this but say half a unit, I absolutely love this bet.

Onto the DFS picks.

Safe Quarterback Week 11 Pick

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (DK $7600, FD $8700)

Fields is on absolute fire right now, having finished as a top-3 fantasy quarterback in each of his last two games. Miami and Detroit are not exactly defensive stalwarts, but he has now accounted for eight total TDs over the last two games. And I'd like to see him pass for more than 200 yards, something he has only done once this season.

But he has another plush matchup against one of the softer defenses, just slightly less generous than Miami or Detroit. Fields travels to Atlanta, who has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. I expect a slight drop here from the previous two weeks, but there's a fairly high floor to stop a huge fall. He'll be a popular pick this week and with good reason.

High-Leverage Quarterback Week 11 Pick

Daniel Jones, New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions (DK $5700, FD $7800)

Jones meanwhile might never be a popular pick. He brings the opposite of "name value." Just hearing his name makes folks cringe a little. But as I like to say, to win a large field GPP, you "have to embrace the uncomfortable."

But let me ease some of that discomfort for you. Jones has just two interceptions this season and none since September. He has just one game this season with less than double-digit fantasy points. That's not a super-high bar for a quarterback, but with his lower salary (especially on DK), there is much value to be had here.

Furthermore, only the Raiders have given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks this season than the Lions. Detroit also is allowing a 99.8 passer rating on average, the third-worst mark in the league. Expect Danny Dimes to drop a few this weekend.

Related: Week 11 Start/Sit Advice for QB/TE/DST

Safe Running Back Week 11 Pick

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions (DK $8900, FD $9700)

Saving on Daniel Jones might allow you to go with his teammate this week should you decide to go with the not-so-popular QB/RB stack.

Barkley's worst game this season he had "only" 88 combined yards. And that was back in Week 2, long before he was on pace for 340-plus fantasy points this season. That game in Week 2 is not even his floor for this matchup and we should easily expect double-digit fantasy points. The ceiling is sky-high here, but the premium salary is for his floor, and I'm willing to pay it.

High-Leverage Running Back Week 11 Pick

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns (Detroit) (DK $5800, FD $6400)

Plain and simple, Singletary is just too cheap for a starting RB that is averaging double-digit carries a game. And with Cleveland on the docket, this is just too juicy of a matchup. The Browns are allowing the second-most (both cumulative and on average) fantasy points to RBs this season, as well as the second-most rushing TDs.

And this coming on the heels of Singletary's two TD-day. I wouldn't count on Singletary having another two-TD day, but I'll call my shot now: Singletary will have his first 100-yard game this season after finishing with the Browns in Detroit.

Related: Week 11 Start/Sit Advice for RB/WR

Safe Wide Receiver Week 11 Pick

Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins at Houston Texans (DK $5900, FD $7300)

McLaurin has just under a 32 percent target share (nine targets per game) since Taylor Heinicke has been the starting quarterback for the Commanders. McLaurin also is averaging 92.5 receiving yards per game and a phenomenal 55.8 percent air yard share.

He had quite the night against the Eagles' Darius Slay this past week, one of the top CBs in the game. He also made another, James Bradberry, look bad earlier this year. And on Sunday, the Texans won't even have one of their starting cornerbacks, rookie Derek Stingley Jr., because of a hamstring injury, leaving guys like Steven Nelson and Desmond King III to try and cover McLaurin? Good luck with that.

High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 11 Pick

Cortland Sutton, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK $6000, FD $7000)

Sutton, like most of the Denver offense, has done "diddly-poo" this season. I apologize for using such sophisticated and technical language. But it's easier than trying to ascertain why he has just one touchdown, is averaging less than five catches a game, and is well short of 60 receiving yards per game. It won't be a surprise to see his ownership percentages in the low single digits.

I think we all know however some of the reasons why Sutton has been a disappointment. And one of those was the presence of the talented Jerry Jeudy on the opposite side of the offense. Well, Jeudy will miss this game due to the ankle injury he suffered last week, which means that Russell Wilson will likely look Sutton's way more frequently.

And the timing is good, given that Sutton's opponent this weekend is the lifeless Raiders. The Raiders are allowing 34.19 PPR points to WRs each week on average. I don't think Sutton will top 30 by himself, but I'd bet on him putting up at least 20 PPR points on Sunday.

Safe Tight End Week 11 Pick

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (DK $4300, FD $5900)

Maybe this is more of a high-leverage pick as I expect Mark Andrews and Cole Kmet to be heavily owned should they both be healthy. But as of now, both are questionable, making Schultz one of the safer TE plays this week.

After being injured for part of the year, Schultz seems to be an integral part of the Dallas offense again. He has 15 targets over the last two games and caught six passes in each, including one for a touchdown last week.

Minnesota has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. This game has an over/under of over 48 points, so expect some offensive fireworks. If I had to pick just one tight end this week to score at least double-digit fantasy points, Schultz would be the pick.

High-Leverage Tight End Week 11 Pick

Tanner Hudson, New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions (DK $2900, FD $4400)

Daniel Bellinger has been declared out for this week; Lawrence Cager has been reverted back to the practice squad; and Chris Myarick has all of three catches since Week 5. Hudson meanwhile had three catches alone last Sunday and has been targeted eight times over his last two games.

Two teams have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends this season than Detroit. They are Arizona and Seattle. The former is not part of the main slate playing on Sunday night and the latter is on a bye. For a price this cheap, I'm willing to play the matchup game.

Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 11 Pick

Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers (DK $4000, FD $4700)

If you read my DST rankings this week, you know I already liked Baltimore and made some arguments for them there. 

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield's stats against Baltimore are better than I thought they might be. He has a 13:9 TD-to-INT ratio with an 83.2 QB rating. However, his stats are inflated due to some of his games in Cleveland. When he goes to Baltimore, like he does this weekend, things get scary. Look at his last two games in M&T Bank Stadium.

That's not too good. Baltimore should sack Mayfield at least twice if not more and probably get a turnover or two. And that's the minimum we should expect.

High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 11 Pick

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams (DK $3000, FD $4100)

Very quietly the Saints' defense has been improving. Only six teams have more sacks than New Orleans. The Saints have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Rams have scored the fourth-fewest points per game and are averaging the fewest yards per game.

We know the Saints play better at home and that includes their defense. The Saints are one of my favorite cheap DST plays this week.

Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:

QB: Taylor Heinicke, Davis Mills

RB: Brian Robinson Jr., Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Warren, Chase Huntley

WR: Paris Campbell, Nico Collins, Ben Skowronek

TE: Greg Dulcich, Isaiah Likely

— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.