Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction: NFC Contenders Meet in Minneapolis

Cowboys look to bounce back from last week's overtime loss in Green Bay by cooling off red-hot Vikings.

Author:
Matt Josephs (Mid Major Matt)
Publish date:
Nov 18, 2022

The highlight of the NFL slate this weekend is in Minnesota as the Vikings host the Cowboys. This could be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, with apologies to the Eagles.

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Dallas has dominated this series recently by winning four of the last five meetings after losing seven of their previous eight. They last faced off on Halloween 2021 when the Cowboys went to Minnesota and beat the Vikings 20-16 as Cooper Rush threw two touchdown passes in the victory as part of a 325-yard passing performance.

Dallas is coming off a 31-28 overtime loss in Green Bay in which Aaron Rodgers threw two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to send it to an extra period. The Packers got a stop and eventually kicked the game-winning field goal to end their five-game skid. The Pack absolutely gashed the Dallas defense, able to both run it and throw it with great success. The bright side was the offense, where Tony Pollard took advantage of Ezekiel Elliott's absence again with 115 rushing yards on 22 carries. Dak Prescott had three touchdown passes and two interceptions in the loss as well.

Minnesota, meanwhile, went the opposite way and picked up a three-point road overtime victory over the Bills. It was one of the best games of the season as Kirk Cousins failed to get into the end zone on fourth-and-goal from the 1, only for Josh Allen to fumble the next play, leading to a Vikings defensive touchdown. Justin Jefferson was massive in the victory, picking up 10 receptions for 193 yards, including a huge reception on fourth down late in the contest.

Dallas (6-3) at Minnesota (8-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20 at 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Cowboys -1
Tickets: As low as $157 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Intangibles
This is Dallas' second straight road game and second straight massive NFC test. Coming off the emotional loss in Green Bay, expect a more focused effort from the Cowboys here, especially since they've got the quick turnaround as a Thanksgiving home contest against the Giants comes four days later. That starts a stretch of three straight at home and four of their next five. There is some slight concern about the Vikings after they got the huge win last week and have had the national media pat them on the back this week. This starts a stretch of three straight at home for them, including a Thanksgiving contest against the Patriots. Not that either team is likely to blow out the other, but be aware that if there is one, starters may be out in the fourth quarter with the quick turnaround for both.

2. Justin Jefferson
The wide receiver from LSU was a huge factor last week in the victory over the Bills, who had no one that could cover him. Jefferson has been the leading receiver for Minnesota in six straight games and seven overall. Dallas has struggled a little bit against No. 1 wide receivers this season and allowed A.J. Brown (5 rec., 67 yds.), Cooper Kupp (7, 125), and Mike Evans (5, 71) to all score and leave an imprint in their respective contests. According to PFF, Trevon Diggs is tied for 34th in the NFL by allowing 28 receptions on the 46 targets thrown his way. Last year, he led the league in interceptions but was also top 15 in receptions allowed. It'll be a group effort to try and slow down the Minnesota wide receiver.

3. Pollard's world
For the second straight game, Pollard showed the world that he can be and probably should be the lead back for the Cowboys. Pollard rushed for 246 yards on 36 carries against the Packers and Bears and picked up four touchdowns in the process. Elliott figures to return this week, and he just doesn't provide the same pop that the running back from Memphis does. Elliott has seen his receiving load greatly reduced, as well, with just six receptions in seven games played. That's another area that Pollard provides a lot. Minnesota is 16th against the rush and is allowing just 101.5 yards rushing at home this season.

Final Analysis

Cue the Spider-Man meme, as these two teams are very similar in many ways. They both sport really good offenses and defenses that can be easily exploited. Both signal-callers have flashed some brilliance but have also made some highly questionable throws as well. The point spread shows how tight this matchup will be, but the edge goes to the Vikings being at home. Jefferson gets the game-winning touchdown in another thrilling Minnesota contest.