Cure Bowl Prediction: UTSA and Troy Meet in Matchup of Conference Champions

Best teams in Conference USA and the Sun Belt set to face off in Orlando.

Author:
Steven Lassan
Publish date:
Dec 15, 2022

The Cure Bowl takes place on the first day of bowl season, but the Dec. 16 matchup of UTSA and Troy could be one of the better postseason matchups for 2022-23. The Roadrunners and Trojans are the only two conference champions to meet in a bowl this year and enter Friday's game with a combined 22-4 overall record.

Under coach Jeff Traylor, UTSA has compiled a 23-5 mark with two Conference USA titles over the last two seasons. The Roadrunners are also 15-1 in regular-season conference games in that span. But there's one missing piece to Traylor's tenure (and UTSA's short life at the FBS level): A bowl win. The Roadrunners are 0-2 in postseason matchups and 0-3 all-time in program history. UTSA's success has helped Traylor become of the nation's biggest rising stars in the head-coaching ranks, and a bowl win in Orlando would only add to the momentum as the program moves to the AAC next year. The Roadrunners lost an overtime game to Houston in the opener and a 41-20 matchup at Texas in Week 3 but have since reeled off 10 wins in a row. Included in that stretch were victories over WKU (31-28), UAB (44-38), and two wins over North Texas, including a 48-27 decision in the Conference USA title game.

In a coaching carousel that featured Lincoln Riley moving to USC and Brian Kelly going to Notre Dame, Troy's hire of Jon Sumrall didn't get much national attention. But those in the know (including us at Athlon Sports), thought the former Kentucky linebacker was a solid hire poised to elevate Troy back into annual postseason contention. In just one year, Sumrall has already exceeded expectations. The Trojans improved their win total by six games from the previous season and won the Sun Belt title after beating Coastal Carolina 45-26 on Dec. 3.

This is the first meeting on the gridiron between UTSA and Troy. The Roadrunners are 0-3 in all-time bowl appearances. The Trojans are 5-3 in postseason treks.

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl: UTSA (11-2) vs. Troy (11-2)

Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 16 at 3 p.m. ET
Where: Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Fla.)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Troy -2
Tickets: As low as $24 on SITickets.com*

When UTSA Has the Ball

It's a battle of strengths when UTSA's offense takes the field against Troy's defense on Friday. The Roadrunners averaged 6.5 yards per play, led Conference USA in scoring at 38.7 points a contest, and paced the league with 240 plays of 10-plus yards during the regular season. Troy's defense can match UTSA's high-powered offense, as Sumrall's group is giving up only 17.5 points a game this fall. The Trojans have a veteran core of players at the helm of this group, including the NCAA's all-time leading tackler in linebacker Carlton Martial. Troy is also limiting teams to 4.7 yards per snap, and this defense allowed only one opponent (Appalachian State) to score over 30 in '22.

Piloting UTSA's offense is senior (but returning for 2023) quarterback Frank Harris. The Texas native ranks fourth nationally in total offense a game (342.1 yards per contest) and has accounted for 40 overall scores this year. However, he will have a new play-caller for this game (Justin Burke) after Will Stein left to be the offensive coordinator at Oregon.

Harris' ability to be the point guard and get weapons the ball in space for a high-powered offense will be tested against a Troy front that leads the Sun Belt in sacks (39) and has allowed only seven plays of 40-plus yards. Injuries took a toll on UTSA's offensive line this season, so protecting Harris is crucial for this offense to get on track.

True freshman Kevorian Barnes is coming off his best performance in a UTSA uniform (175 rushing yards against North Texas) to push his season total to 713 yards. He will lead the ground game once again, especially with Brenden Brady (699) and Trelon Smith (190) uncertain due to injuries. On the outside, Zakhari Franklin (86 catches) and Joshua Cephus (87) have combined for 20 touchdown catches this season. But that duo, plus tight end Oscar Cardenas, will meet a Troy secondary that's allowed only 13 passing scores all year.

When Troy Has the Ball

This isn't weakness versus weakness, but Troy's offense and UTSA's defense are certainly more vulnerable than the other side of the ball for both teams. The Trojans average 26.2 points a game (eighth in the Sun Belt), while the Roadrunners are giving up 26.5 a contest.

Troy's offense skews to the run (455 carries to 377 pass attempts) for good reason. Running back Kimani Vidal (1,059 yards) is one of the top backs in the Sun Belt (second-team all-conference honors) and runs behind a line that features two first-team all-conference selections in Jake Andrews and Austin Stidham. UTSA's rush defense ranks third in Conference USA by holding teams to 151.4 rushing yards a contest, so there should be opportunities for Vidal and backup DK Billingsley to get on track. The Roadrunners allowed four opponents to eclipse 200 or more rushing yards and surrendered 425 yards on the ground in their last two games. This defense has thrived at generating negative plays (78 tackles for a loss) and getting Troy behind the chains is a must, especially with Sumrall's offense converting less than 35 percent (34.2) of its third-down attempts.

Although Troy's passing game isn't overly prolific (No. 65 nationally in success rate), quarterback Gunnar Watson averages a healthy 8.7 yards per attempt and torched Coastal Carolina for 318 yards and three passing touchdowns in the Sun Belt Championship Game. The Georgia native has tossed 10 picks over 312 attempts, which could be problematic against a UTSA secondary that's intercepted 13 this year. Tez Johnson (52 catches), RaJae' Johnson (34), and Deshon Stoudemire (38) headline a productive trio of weapons for Watson at receiver. The Roadrunners don't get many sacks on opposing quarterbacks (19), but there could be opportunities to pressure Watson considering Troy has allowed 40 sacks in 13 contests.

Final Analysis

Bowl games aren't easy to predict with opt-outs, injuries, transfers and coaching changes all taking a toll on the roster. However, UTSA and Troy were two of the best Group of 5 teams in the nation this year, and everything points to this being one of the better postseason matchups for 2022-23. Can the Trojans' standout defense find a way to slow down Harris and the Roadrunners? When Troy has the ball, establishing Vidal and Billingsley to stay in manageable down-and-distance situations is a must. This one is a toss-up, but the guess here is Harris delivers a couple of clutch plays in the second half to help UTSA score its first bowl victory in program history.