Baltimore vs. Cleveland Prediction: Ravens Look to Maintain Lead in AFC North With Sweep of the Browns

This AFC North rivalry heads to Ohio where Deshaun Watson hopes the third time's the charm in his NFL comeback.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Dec 15, 2022

The Baltimore Ravens will face the Cleveland Browns Saturday without the lynchpin of their offensive scheme. Lamar Jackson, who has been held out of practice while nursing a knee injury, was ruled out on Thursday. The general consensus is it'll be another 1-2 weeks before Jackson returns to the field.

The problem for the Ravens (9-4) is that backup quarterback, Tyler Huntley, doesn't exactly have a clean bill of health either. Huntley has been limited in practice after leaving Sunday's game with a concussion; leaving third-stringer Anthony Brown to finish out a gritty 16-14 win against the Steelers. The good news is that Huntley has cleared concussion protocol and doesn't carry an injury designation for Saturday's game.

As for last week, the Ravens' defense came up big, forcing Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky into three interceptions, and is poised for another exceptional effort against a Browns team trying to find itself. Two games into the Deshaun Watson era, the team has posted just one offensive touchdown, their former Pro Bowl quarterback rusty after nearly two years away from the NFL.

What people might not realize is the Browns were a top-10 NFL offense without Watson, relying heavily on the running game of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Can they find the magic potion that works with a QB who's also a game-changer with his legs? At 5-8, they must win out the rest of the way to have any faint hopes of a playoff spot.

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The Ravens are easily the most formidable challenge left in their way. Can Baltimore find another way to cobble together a win without their leader? Or will the Browns finally begin to build around Watson under center?

Baltimore (9-4) at Cleveland (5-8)

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 17 at 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Browns -2.5
Tickets: As low as $10 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Can Deshaun Watson settle in?
Much has been written this week about how difficult Watson's transition back into NFL playing shape has been. While just a two-game sample size, his 59.4 percent completion rate is well below his career average of 67.5. Throws have been hitting the turf far more than they should, and Watson's last three possessions in the Bengals game were not what the Browns paid for: interception, going 0-for-3 to blow a first-and-goal, then three straight incompletions to basically end the game.

It doesn't get any easier against a Ravens defense that's been feasting on turnovers. The team's 23 takeaways are the most in the AFC, along with a plus-nine turnover margin that stifles opposing offenses.

Watson's already faced this Baltimore defense twice in his career, with disappointing results: only one touchdown, two interceptions, and losses by a combined score of 74-23. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence this weekend is the one that turns it around.

2. Ravens' defense vs. Browns' run game
The Ravens aren't just focused on Watson this Saturday. They're well aware it's the "run game" that has them jazzed up to face the challenge of Nick Chubb.

The Browns' top offensive producer ranks third in the AFC with 1,153 rushing yards. But what's interesting is he's been less of a focus since Watson got added to the offense: only 31 carries for 114 yards (3.7 ypc) with no touchdowns. The Bengals were able to focus effectively on the run, holding the Browns to just 71 net yards on the ground (one off their season low) while forcing Watson to beat them.

News flash: he didn't.

That's where the Ravens' defense is hoping to cash in; they're ranked second overall against the run (81.2 ypg) and holding opposing offenses to 3.78 yards per carry. They haven't allowed more than 100 rushing yards in six straight games, holding opponents to 53.2 during that stretch.

Who was the last team to break through? The Browns, who ran for 113 yards while Chubb burned the Ravens for 91 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries back in Week 7. He'll need a similar effort for Cleveland to get over the hump.

3. Who can make a play on the Ravens' offense?
Looking back at that Oct. 23 matchup, Jackson actually had his worst game of the season, posting just nine completions for 120 yards. It was the Ravens' rushing attack that bailed them out, Gus Edwards posting a season-high two touchdowns and 66 yards.

This time, Edwards has a very important sidekick in the backfield: J.K. Dobbins, back after knee surgery left him on injured reserve for seven weeks. He made a splash against the Steelers, putting the hobbled Ravens offense on his back to pile up 120 yards on just 15 carries, including a touchdown that proved to be the difference.

And Dobbins doesn't even believe he's back at 100 percent, still recuperating from a torn ACL and LCL that left him initially out of football for over a year.

“I'm still not in the shape that I need to be in,” he said after that Steelers game, referencing a play where he got caught in the backfield instead of scoring. “So, I'm pretty upset about that. But it's only going to keep getting better.”

For the Ravens, getting better is a must. Dobbins needs to assume a role in the next two weeks not unlike what All-Pro running back Johnathan Taylor of the Colts had when carrying that team to the playoffs last year. Expect Dobbins to have a big day against a Browns defense that's allowed an average of 136 rushing yards per game the last five weeks.

Final Analysis

Expect the Browns to give it their all at home, entering desperation mode after they thought Watson could still propel them straight into the playoffs. But while they'll keep it close, Watson will remind everyone he's not back to 100 percent with a few key mistakes that'll allow the Ravens' defense to take control of this game.

Let's not forget the wild card Baltimore also has with kicker Justin Tucker, good for another field goal or two compared to most offenses. The Ravens have made a habit of winning by doing just enough and the Browns shouldn't stand in their way Saturday afternoon.