Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction: AFC North Rivals Face Off Before Preparing for the Playoffs

Cincinnati tries to find a way forward after the Damar Hamlin injury on their home field.

Author:
Tom Bowles
Publish date:
Jan 6, 2023

The Cincinnati Bengals will face the Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon still in shock after witnessing the near-tragic injury of Damar Hamlin on the field. The collapse of the Buffalo Bills' safety just midway through the first quarter Monday night shocked the NFL community at large, causing the suspension of a contest that was eventually canceled after Hamlin needed CPR to be resuscitated on the field. After showing improvement in recent days, there's increasing optimism about Hamlin's prognosis although he remains in critical condition at a Cincinnati hospital.

That improvement has been crucial in the emotional recovery of Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins, the player who made contact with Hamlin after what appeared to be a routine catch from quarterback Joe Burrow. "I talked to his mom," he told NFL.com earlier this week. "Everything's OK, he's doing good, so I'm in a good place right now." The Bengals organization has not only been supportive of Higgins but Hamlin and the Bills in a show of NFL solidarity: head coach Zac Taylor's wife is leading a Get Well card drive for the safety while Burrow has been in consistent contact with Bills players after what he described as a "very emotional 48 hours."

In the midst of this very public and emotional distraction, the Bengals welcome the Baltimore Ravens to town as they attempt to get back to the business of football just six days later. It's a difficult scenario as the Ravens have their own black cloud of quarterback Lamar Jackson's health sitting above them; he'll miss a fifth straight game Sunday due to a knee injury.

Because the NFL ruled the postponed Bills-Bengals game no-contest that meant Cincinnati has already secured a second straight AFC North title. But there are still significant stakes tied to this matchup. On Friday, NFL owners approved a resolution that adjusts the AFC playoffs based on potential scenarios, including one that involves the Bengals and Ravens. If these teams end up as the No. 3 and No. 6 seed (requiring a Ravens win and Chargers win over the Broncos), a coin flip will determine who hosts next weekend's Wild Card Round game. Additionally, Cincinnati has a chance to force a potential AFC Championship Game against Kansas City to a neutral site if the Chiefs (at Raiders on Saturday) and Bills (vs. New England on Sunday) lose while the Bengals win.

But the first piece of business for Cincinnati is getting back on the field, and then beating Baltimore.

Baltimore (10-6) at Cincinnati (11-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Bengals -9.5
Tickets: As low as $249 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. How will the Bengals recover from a week of trauma?
The Bengals were playing well early against the Bills, up 7-3 and in position to extend their AFC-best seven-game winning streak. But Damar Hamlin's injury stopped everything dead in its tracks, creating an emotional week that has sapped their energy even as the opposing team on the field.

Most of the team, like the rest of the NFL, has been following the Hamlin situation closely. Running back Joe Mixon, who was close enough on the fateful play he jumped over Hamlin seconds before his collapse, said the team has struggled to put the incident behind them."Very traumatizing," he said this week. "It's hard to erase. It's very, very emotional knowing this is a game we choose to play."

Certainly, the Bengals can harness those emotions into adrenaline on the field. But this situation is unprecedented in the NFL this century; it's hard to gauge how focused the Bengals will be for this game. Their entire routine leading up to the Ravens game has been fully interrupted mentally, and it's not an opponent they can take likely: the Ravens eked by them 19-17 in October.

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has been vocal this week that the team "can do two things at once." The Ravens have also been affected, too, feeling strange about preparation knowing about what happened on this Bengals field less than a week ago.

"There's nothing that we can really do but come in here and do our jobs and pray," Ravens tight end Mark Andrews said. "Everything else, we can't control."

2. Can the Ravens' running game compensate for the absence of Lamar Jackson?
One thing Baltimore didn't have in its October tilt against the Bengals was a solid ground game. Jackson led the way with just 58 rushing yards; J.K. Dobbins totaled just 44, on eight carries, before heading onto injured reserve after choosing to have scar tissue removed from his surgically repaired knee.

Since choosing to do the cleanup work, Dobbins has been back with a vengeance, carrying the Ravens' offense in Jackson's absence. In the past month, Dobbins is averaging nearly seven yards per carry, has pulled off two 100-yard rushing performances, and paired with Gus Edwards to help his team total 717 yards on the ground in the last four games. Baltimore now has the league's second-best rushing offense, averaging 163.1 yards a game, and has done its best to set backup quarterback Tyler Huntley up for success.

The Bengals have the league's fifth-best rushing defense, holding teams to a little more than 101 yards on the ground. In their last four games (including Buffalo), they've allowed no more than 92 rushing yards overall to any opponent. It feels like where the game will be won in the trenches, especially with other starters potentially being held out of the lineup on both sides.

3. McPherson vs Tucker
In what could be a low-scoring affair, two of the league's best field-goal kickers are set to square off. But each of them has had disappointing seasons compared to their Pro Bowl-level standards. The Bengals' Evan McPherson has missed five field goals and four extra points, several of which have come at crucial moments to put a dent in claims he's the top clutch kicker of his generation. Cincinnati would like to see greater consistency from McPherson heading into their playoff push, where he was perfect last year all the way through the Super Bowl.

Tucker, meanwhile, has missed the most field goal attempts for the Ravens (six) since his fourth year in the league in 2015. Five of them have been from 50-plus, skewing the total a bit, as head coach John Harbaugh knows he can be aggressive with arguably the best NFL kicker of all time on his roster. But consider from 2019-21, Tucker's total from 50-plus was an exceptional 10-for-12, including that record-setting 66-yarder to beat Detroit last year.

So far in 2022? Tucker's just 8-for-13, his worst performance since going 4-for-10 back in 2015. And last month, during a loss against Cleveland, he missed inside 50 yards and had a field goal blocked in the same game.

The Ravens need Tucker to be at his best with the offense averaging just 11.8 points per game over the last five weeks. Can he get back to giving his team that extra five or 10 yards of cushion his leg can usually provide to prop up a sputtering offense?

Final Analysis

It's very difficult to gauge the Bengals' situation for a few reasons. Mentally, they're in a unique position no NFL team has been in this century, dealing with the trauma of an opposing player needing to be brought back to life directly in front of them. The division has been won and there's no chance of getting a first-round bye. So, what is there to play for, really?

It's a mental mess that could give the Ravens an edge… if only they had an offense. Their 16-13 loss to the Steelers last Sunday night showcased the continued inability of the Ravens to put up points. They may see the backups Sunday, but it doesn't matter if they don't find a way into Cincinnati territory. Justin Tucker may put up points on his own, but three every once in a while against these Bengals?

Doesn't feel like enough.