Alamo Bowl Prediction: Texas and Washington Set for High-Scoring Matchup

Alamodome to host intriguing Big 12 vs. Pac-12 matchup.

Author:
Steven Lassan
Publish date:
Dec 28, 2022

A potentially high-scoring affair and a must-see matchup is on tap when Texas takes on Washington in the Valero Alamo Bowl. A post-bowl bounce in terms of momentum may not really exist, but it’s easy to see why a win by either team will increase expectations for 2023. The Longhorns are making steady progress under coach Steve Sarkisian, improving their win total from five last year to 8-4 this fall. The Huskies won 10 games under new coach Kalen DeBoer and already received major news when quarterback Michael Penix Jr. announced his intention to return next fall.

A 5-7 debut by Sarkisian didn’t sit well in Austin last fall, but Texas showed marked improvement this year. The Longhorns came within a win of playing for the Big 12 title and lost all four of its games by seven points or less, including matchups versus top-10 teams in Alabama and TCU. Texas picked up solid wins against UTSA (41-20) and Big 12 champion Kansas State (34-27) and pounded rival Oklahoma 49-0 in early October. Although Sarkisian has some personnel turnover to navigate on defense and at running back with Bijan Robinson departing, expectations will be high in Austin for what could be the program’s final season in the Big 12. Sarkisian also helped the future of the program with a top-five recruiting class this year, which includes potential superstar quarterback Arch Manning.

DeBoer’s hire wasn’t met with as much fanfare as some of the other coaching changes in the 2021-22 carousel, but his arrival helped to spark Washington to a six-game jump in wins. The Huskies used significant improvement on offense (averaged 40.8 points a game, up from 21.5 in ’21) to finish 10-2 and on the doorstep of a trip to the Rose Bowl. A 4-0 start ended with back-to-back losses to UCLA and Arizona State (both by one score), but DeBoer’s team rallied with six straight wins, including victories against Oregon State, Oregon and Washington State.

Texas and Washington have played four previous times, with the Longhorns owning a 3-1 series edge. However, these two programs have not faced each other since 2001. The Huskies are 1-3 in their last four bowl trips. The Longhorns have won their last four postseason treks.

Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 20 Texas (8-4) vs. No. 12 Washington (10-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 29 at 9 p.m. ET
Where: Alamodome (San Antonio)
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Texas -3.5
Tickets: As low as $66 on SITickets.com*

When Washington Has the Ball

It’s a matchup of one of the nation’s top offenses against a standout defense. Washington’s offense entered the bowl season tied for fourth nationally (40.8) in scoring and fourth in yards per play (7.02). Only two opponents – California and Oregon State – held the Huskies under 30 points this year and this unit finished the regular season on a high note by torching Washington State for an average of 10.5 yards per play.

In addition to DeBoer’s scheme and play-calling with help from coordinator Ryan Grubb, Michael Penix Jr.'s play is a major reason for the Huskies’ improved offensive attack. The Indiana transfer has battled injuries throughout his career but finally stayed healthy for a full year in ’22. Penix passed for 4,354 yards and 29 touchdowns to only seven picks and connected on 66 percent of his passes (500 attempts). He also led the Pac-12 with five completions of 60-plus yards. The lefty also has two of the conference’s top targets at his disposal with Rome Odunze (70 catches for 1,088 yards) and Jalen McMillan (71 for 1,040). Ja’Lynn Polk, Giles Jackson and tight end Jack Westover each have more than 25 catches this year, giving Penix a deep group of weapons to deploy against the Texas defense.

Another key to Washington’s turnaround in ’22 is the play up front. The Huskies allowed 23 sacks last year but surrendered only seven this fall. Also, the ground game averages 4.7 yards per carry (up from 3.2). Wayne Taulapapa (779 yards) and Cameron Davis (552) lead the way at running back for the Huskies.

Similar to Washington’s offense, Texas’ defense showed significant improvement from ’21. The Longhorns gave up 31.1 points a game last fall but surrendered only 21.2 this year. Additionally, this group allowed only 4.9 yards a snap, ranked third in the Big 12 in sacks (27), and finished fourth in the conference in pass efficiency defense. Second-leading tackler DeMarvion Overshown (96 tackles) opted out to prepare for the NFL draft, but the rest of the unit is expected to be intact for the Alamo Bowl. Washington’s strengths on offense (line and passing game) will meet a stiff test from a Texas defense. Can the Huskies keep Barryn Sorrell (nine TFL) and Jaylan Ford (10) away from Penix? Or will Washington’s front protect Penix and allow him to slice the Longhorns’ secondary?

When Texas Has the Ball

While the battle of the other sides is a matchup of strengths, this is a meeting of two units with something to prove. Texas ranked second in the Big 12 in scoring (35.7 points a game), but running back Bijan Robinson opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. With Robinson and backup Roschon Johnson off to the next level, quarterback Quinn Ewers will have more pressure on his right arm in this game – and with Arch Manning arriving on campus this spring, a good finish to ’22 would help him in a looming quarterback battle.

Ewers started fast by throwing for 225 yards and two touchdowns in the opener against ULM and completed nine passes for 134 yards before leaving due to injury against Alabama. After missing three games, Ewers returned to toss four scores against Oklahoma and three against Iowa State. However, Ewers did not top more than 197 passing yards in each of the last four games and completed only 55.1 percent of his throws in November. With a month to get healthy and prepared for this game, Ewers has an opportunity to end the year on a high note against a Washington secondary ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in pass efficiency defense. Also, the freshman has a full array of weapons at receiver to test the Huskies. Xavier Worthy (53 catches), Jordan Whittington (45) and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (49) are all slated to play and are a tough matchup for UW’s secondary.

Even though Robinson (1,580 yards) and Johnson (554) departed, the backfield isn’t lacking talent. Redshirt freshman Jonathon Brooks (179 yards) and Keilan Robinson (59 yards) are a more than capable one-two punch for the bowl. Washington’s front held its own against the run (fifth in the Pac-12 by allowing 127.1 yards a game). However, in four games against teams with a winning record, the Huskies allowed 186.8 yards on the ground. Jeremiah Martin (8.5 sacks), Bralen Trice (eight), and Zion Tupuola-Fetui (4.5) need to create havoc against the Texas front and put Ewers into long-yardage passing downs, as this offense ranked eighth in the Big 12 in third-down conversions.

Final Analysis

The Big 12 is 4-1 in the last five matchups against the Pac-12 in the Alamo Bowl. Can Washington’s offense pick up where it left off at the end of the season? Having a month between games could create some rust in timing for Penix and his receivers. The Texas defensive front needs to disrupt Penix from the snap and prevent the big-play shots downfield to McMillan and Odunze. Although the Longhorns won’t have Robinson and Johnson, they should still be able to run the ball with Brooks and Keilan Robinson against a suspect Washington defense. But the play of Ewers is key here. Can the freshman rebound after an up-and-down stretch in November? Look for plenty of offensive fireworks, but Penix is the difference in an entertaining Alamo Bowl.