Alabama vs. LSU Prediction: First Place in the SEC West Up for Grabs in Death Valley

A few weeks ago, Saturday's showdown at home against Alabama looked like a disaster in the making for LSU. The Tigers were just coming off a 40-13 embarrassment at home against Tennessee to drop to 4-2 with their offense looking like a puddle of mud. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide were coming off a 49-24 win at Arkansas and had vaulted back into the No. 1 spot in the polls.

But since then, LSU's offense has grown some teeth, scoring 45 points against both Florida and then-No. 7 Ole Miss in back-to-back wins. Not only does LSU's offense look like it's running downhill, but the defense also has started playing with confidence. As a result, Brian Kelly's team landed at No. 10 in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings that were unveiled on Tuesday night.

Related: College Football Predictions for Every Game in Week 10

Alabama has struggled since that win over the Razorbacks, escaping Texas A&M the next Saturday, defeating the Aggies 24-20 without an injured Bryce Young, and then getting gouged for 52 points by the Volunteers in a three-point loss in Knoxville. The good news is that was followed by a dominating 30-6 win at home over Mississippi State where the Crimson Tide's defense looked more like we have come to expect.

Both teams are coming off of a bye as Alabama arrives in Baton Rouge to continue its recent dominance of this series, winning 10 of the past 11 meetings against LSU. The Crimson Tide haven't lost in Tiger Stadium since 2010 (5-0 since).

No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU

Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 5 at 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Alabama -13
Tickets: As low as $168 on SITickets.com*

When Alabama Has the Ball

A big red flag was raised when the Crimson Tide ran for just 29 yards on 27 carries vs. Mississippi Tate. Instead, offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien leaned heavily on Young's arm, and he responded by going 21-for-35 for 249 yards. That can't happen in this game. If LSU is able to shut down Jahmyr Gibbs and Co. and make the Tide one-dimensional, that will spell doom for them. Gibbs came into the game against the Bulldogs after putting up 206, 154, and 103 rushing yards against Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee, respectively. That's why his 10 rushing attempts vs. MSU were so surprising. Keep in mind that LSU's defense held Ole Miss to just 117 yards on the ground in its last game. The Rebels entered that matchup second in the nation at 283 rushing yards per game.

Much has been made of Tigers freshman linebacker/edge rusher Harold Perkins. He came to Red Stick ranked as the No. 1 linebacker in the country and is steadily making more and more of an impact as his playing time increases. In the win over Ole Miss, he finished with five tackles, one sack, one pass breakup, and two QB hurries in the second half alone. Watch for his impact on the Tide offense, especially if he can provide pressure and give Young happy feet in the pocket.

When LSU Has the Ball

Jayden Daniels has been a dynamo this season, with his nine rushing touchdowns already the most by a quarterback in school history. After getting outgained 200-80 and outscored 17-3 in the first quarter vs. Ole Miss, Daniels led the Tigers' comeback with 420 yards and 42 points over the final three quarters. For the game, Daniels passed for 258 yards and ran for 121. Don't reach for the remote on Saturday night because even if the Tigers get down again this week, they have won three games this season where they trailed by 13 points or more.

It's still odd that wide receiver Kayshon Boutte has been whisper quiet. You almost expect him to bust out at any moment. Boutte has explosive speed and game-changing abilities (which is why he is projected as a potential top-10 pick in next year's NFL draft), but he still has just one touchdown catch this season and that one was in mop-up duty against Tennessee when LSU was behind 37-7. He also has just one game with more than 43 receiving yards (six catches for 115 yards vs. Florida). Seven different players had multiple catches vs. Ole Miss, which is good. But can Daniels get the ball into the hands of LSU's best skill-position weapon more often this week?

Final Analysis

Shockingly, Alabama has been fairly terrible on the road, escaping Texas and getting beat at Tennessee. Not to mention having Arkansas play the Crimson Tide toe-to-toe for three quarters before finally breaking away. Busted coverages, a case of the dropsies, or getting flagged a monstrous amount of yards has been the Achilles heel once the Red Elephants leave Bryant-Denney Stadium. And yes, if you're wondering, the Tide ranks 125th in the nation with 8.6 penalties per game. They are just a different team on the road and Death Valley in Baton Rouge is no place to try to improve your poise as a team.

LSU has given up 101 of its 169 total points in the first half of games this season, so it will be interesting to see if the Tigers get off to a slow start once again. They've shown a knack for much better football in the second half of games. But a slow start against Alabama is perilous at best.

Prediction: Alabama 31, LSU 28

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— Written by Eric Sorenson, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network. He is a college football, college baseball and college hockey addict... and writer. Follow him on Twitter @Stitch_Head.

*Price as of publication.