AFC South: Examining Over/Under Win Totals for the 2022 Season

The AFC South might be the most "boring" of the NFL divisions to discuss because there are two teams who really don't have a chance to take the division crown and two that do. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a new head coach who figures to be an upgrade, while the Houston Texans really don't have a direction in a lost season ahead. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans try to move on without A.J. Brown as the Indianapolis Colts hope another quarterback change can result in the division title they should have had last year.

NFL Win Totals for 2022: AFC East I AFC North I AFC South I AFC West I NFC East I NFC North I NFC South I NFC West

(Numbers courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Houston Texans (Over 4.5 EVEN...Under 4.5 -120)

Division Champion Odds: 30/1

Offense: Davis Mills threw 16 touchdown passes vs. 10 interceptions, solid numbers for a rookie. Another good season and this team will be convinced he could be a franchise quarterback. One of the best players in Houston training camp has been rookie Florida running back Dameon Pierce, who should be able to hold off Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead in the backfield. The team signed Brandin Cooks to a long-term deal in the offseason and is expected to showcase him as the No. 1 wide receiver. Behind him is not a lot in terms of Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett II, and Chris Conley. The offensive line is alright and should be able to hold up a bit.

Defense: Houston added LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and Baylor safety Jalen Pitre in the draft, both of whom figure to be starters. They will massively upgrade the secondary, which also has Steven Nelson at the other CB spot and Eric Murray at safety. The linebacking corps is not bad with Kamu Grugier-Hill (108 tackles) and Christian Kirksey (93 tackles) leading the way. The problems come up front, where the team needs to get more from players other than Jonathan Greenard, who had 8 sacks in 2021.

Schedule Notes: Houston gets a really early bye in Week 6. They alternate home and road games starting in November all the way to the end of the season.

Prediction: It's a low number, but it's not low enough. This seems like a four-win football team.

Related: Houston Texans Depth Chart

Indianapolis Colts (Over 10 -105...Under 10 -115)

Division Champion Odds: -130

Offense: Carson Wentz clearly didn't work out for the Colts, who had a disappointing season as a team. In steps veteran Matt Ryan to try and get this team to the postseason. Ryan clearly isn't what he used to be, but he can still be savvy enough to move this team that is going to be heavily reliant on Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had a franchise-record 1,811 rushing yards and was able to contribute in the passing game as well. The offensive line should be really strong once again, even though they have two new starters. When the team does choose to throw, Michael Pittman Jr. is the overwhelming No. 1 option with guys like second-round pick Alec Pierce in the mix as well.

Defense: There's a new coordinator in town as Gus Bradley takes over. He's got some great building blocks with Shaquille Leonard and Bobby Okereke accounting for almost 260 tackles in 2021. The secondary added Stephon Gilmore from the Panthers, but he's seemingly lost a little bit from his time in New England. Still, Gilmore is a solid corner when paired off with Kenny Moore II. There's some depth at safety with Rodney McLeod coming over from Philly. The front four should be a lot better than they were last year after picking up Yannick Ngakoue to pair with Kwity Paye and DeForest Buckner. This is the best defense in the division by far.

Schedule Notes: The Colts play the two worst teams in the division on the road the first two weeks, so they should start 2-0 before hosting Kansas City and Tennessee. Indy has a Week 14 bye and finishes things off with the Vikings, Chargers, Giants and Texans.

Prediction: Very solid number, as I come up with 10 wins for the Colts.

Related: Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart

Jacksonville Jaguars (Over 6.5 +110...Under 6.5 -130)

Division Champion Odds: +750

Offense: Trevor Lawrence had a miserable rookie campaign with 12 touchdown passes to 17 interceptions. Those numbers should get a whole lot better with the hiring of head coach Doug Pederson. He did wonders with Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts in Philly, and Lawrence now has an upgrade in weapons as well. The front office massively overpaid for former Cardinals wideout Christian Kirk and also added Zay Jones and Evan Engram. There were some solid pieces already in place with Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. It'll be interesting to see how they use Travis Etienne Jr. after he missed the season with a Lisfranc injury. Not only that, James Robinson is coming off a torn Achilles himself. At least the O-line got an upgrade with the signing of five-time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Scherff.

Defense: The Jaguars absolutely have to get more pressure on the quarterback after having only 32 sacks last season. Knowing that, Jacksonville bolstered the pass rush with linebackers Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd being drafted in the first round. Walker has looked good in the preseason, too, so that's huge for this side of the ball. The secondary also got an upgrade with the signing of Darious Williams from Los Angeles, as Williams is a legit No. 1 corner. Shaquill Griffin will take on the other side while several candidates will try to play safety. There is real improvement coming, but the group still needs work.

Schedule Notes: The Jags hit the ground running with four of their first six contests on the road, including both contests overall against the Colts. Two weeks later, they have their yearly London game against the Broncos. The bye comes in Week 11, and the closing stretch in December features four of five on the road with the home game in the middle being against Dallas.

Prediction: I came up with 6-7 wins, so no play here.

Related: Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart

Tennessee Titans (Over 9 -105...Under 9 -115)

Division Champion Odds: +175

Offense: Derrick Henry's health is obviously imperative as they continue to rely on the running back and his powerful legs. He becomes even more important with the departure of A.J. Brown to Philadelphia. Brown had 63 receptions in 2021, with the next highest receiver picking up 38. In order to address the loss, Tennessee drafted Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks and added Robert Woods from the Rams, who is coming off a big-time injury. All of this won't matter if Ryan Tannehill can't be more efficient and cut down on the turnovers. He had 14 interceptions last season.

Defense: The defense had some wild splits in 2021, finishing second defending the run but 25th in defending the pass. It wasn't necessarily the pass rush's fault, as they racked up 43 sacks, which was tied for ninth in the NFL. Around half of those came from Denico Autry and Harold Landry III. The secondary from last year is back intact, although they are hoping to get a full season from Caleb Farley, who got injured last season. Farley and Kristian Fulton are not a bad cornerback duo and are backed up by Kevin Byard, who is a fantastic safety. The defense should be solid once again in 2022.

Schedule Notes: Tennessee has three of its first five on the road before a Week 6 bye. The next six games feature road matchups with Kansas City and Green Bay and home games against the Colts, Broncos and Bengals.

Prediction: Nine is a really good number. I slightly lean to the under, but think nine could be the max.

Related: Tennessee Titans Depth Chart

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.