AFC East: Examining Over/Under Win Totals for the 2022 Season

In the past, when there's been talk of a potential team from the AFC East being the Super Bowl champion, it was the New England Patriots. That is not the case in 2022, as the Buffalo Bills are getting a lot of love from the national pundits — and for good reason. The pieces are in place for a run, although the AFC is deep and full of potential landmines. Miami's a complete wild card in this division with Tua Tagovailoa playing potentially for his NFL future, while the Patriots continue to be in transition since Tom Brady's departure. Finally, the Jets are making improvements but still have a long way to go.

NFL Win Totals for 2022: AFC East I AFC North I AFC South I AFC West I NFC East I NFC North I NFC South I NFC West

Note: Win total numbers courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills (Over 11.5 -140...Under 11.5 +120)

Division Champion Odds: -230

Offense: Josh Allen was awesome once again for Buffalo, accounting for a combined 5,170 yards and 42 touchdowns through the air and on the ground. The quarterback has seen his weapons shuffle just a bit with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley departing, but it's allowed Isaiah McKenzie to take a step up in the slot as he fights off former Jet Jamison Crowder. This should also be the year that Gabriel Davis breaks out after how well he played down the stretch. The ground game will potentially be frustrating to figure once again, with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss back as well as second-rounder James Cook out of Georgia, who has shown he can catch passes out of the backfield.

Defense: The defense was good last year outside of the collapse against the Chiefs in the playoffs. The unit got even better with the addition of veteran Von Miller, who is the league's active sacks leader. It's part of a shuffling up front with four players leaving and several coming in, including Tim Settle from Washington. The secondary features a few question marks, headlined by the effectiveness of Tre'Davious White coming off an ACL injury on Thanksgiving. His replacements are a little on the young side, with Kaiir Elam and Dane Jackson in the mix. Luckily for the corners, the safety group of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is one of the best in the NFL.

Schedule Notes: Four of Buffalo's first six are on the road, including the opener in LA against the Rams and trips to Baltimore and Kansas City before the Week 7 bye. The team is back on Thanksgiving playing in Detroit against the Lions. They do finish the season with two of three on the road — one of those being a Monday night in Cincinnati.

Prediction: Pretty solid number, as I had 11-12 wins.

Related: Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

Miami Dolphins (Over 9 EVEN...Under 9 -120)

Division Champion Odds: +450

Offense: There should be no more excuses for Tagovailoa, who has a major upgrade in weapons and more pressure to succeed in Miami. The Dolphins traded for KC speedster Tyreek Hill and signed Cedrick Wilson Jr. from Dallas to join Jaylen Waddle, who set a rookie record of 104 receptions last year. It will be interesting to see who takes over in the backfield after the additions of Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, and Chase Edmonds to go along with Myles Gaskin. New head coach Mike McDaniel and Mostert were previously together in San Francisco, so it figures he should have the edge. The blocking also got upgraded with left tackle Terron Armstead coming in from New Orleans, as well as fullback Alec Ingold, who was in Las Vegas.

Defense: All 11 starters and the defensive coordinator return, so the defense is mostly intact even after Brian Flores' departure. The momentum is there, too, as they held six opponents to 20 points or less over the last two months of the season. Still, they ranked in the middle of the league in every category that mattered. The cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones is one of the best, and they have to be good with the safeties blitzing as much as they do. The front line figures to be strong and present plenty of pressure on their opponents. Emmanuel Ogbah and Jaelan Phillips accounted for 17.5 of the squad's 48 sacks, which was tied for fifth in the NFL.

Schedule Notes: Two early opportunities to send a message to the division come up early with home tilts against the Pats and Bills in Weeks 1 and 3. The Dolphins have three straight on the road in early December and four of their final six overall away from Miami. If they can hold their own early, the schedule lightens up tremendously in the middle.

Prediction: Lean to the under, but it's not one of my favorite plays.

Related: Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

New England Patriots (Over 8.5 -125...Under 8.5 +105)

Division Champion Odds: +500

Offense: Play-calling could be a huge factor here after Josh McDaniels left for Las Vegas. Early reports have Matt Patricia (their long-time defensive coordinator) in that role, and the offense hasn't looked crisp in camp. Mac Jones was solid last year, although he could probably reduce the interception count (13 to just 22 TDs). The acquisition of wide receiver DeVante Parker was a good one since the group is generally underwhelming. Rookie Tyquan Thornton has played well, and Jakobi Meyers led the squad with 83 receptions in 2021. The ground game has its usual options in Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, but the O-line has to be better.

Defense: The Patriots have a massive hole at the No. 1 cornerback position after J.C. Jackson signed a massive free-agent deal with the Chargers. They brought back an old friend in Malcolm Butler, but he landed on the IR in training camp. One key addition who will play is former Browns linebacker Mack Wilson Sr., as he is set to replace Kyle Van Noy, who is also now a Charger. The rest of the unit is the same as they hope to get some help for Matthew Judon, the only Patriot to register more than five sacks last season. All in all, I expect a slight downgrade on defense.

Schedule Notes: Four of the team's first six contests are outside of Foxborough, including trips to Miami and Green Bay. New England's bye is in Week 10, and that's big because they've got tough home matchups with Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Miami in the last month or so.

Prediction: Solid number, as I come up with 8-9 wins.

Related: New England Patriots Depth Chart

New York Jets (Over 5.5 -135...Under 5.5 +115)

Division Champion Odds: 28/1

Offense: It's Year 2 for Zach Wilson, who has an outside chance of playing Week 1 after undergoing preseason right knee surgery. The Jets improved Wilson's weapons with the additions of Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah at tight end and first-rounder Garrett Wilson at wide receiver. Elijah Moore has been killing it in the preseason and is looking to take the same step up in Year 2. The backfield is slightly underwhelming, although rookie second-rounder Breece Hall has promise. The loss of tackle Mekhi Becton is a big one, but the squad quickly moved to fix it with the addition of longtime veteran Duane Brown.

Defense: The defense should be a lot better as Robert Saleh continues to make moves on this side of the ball. Getting a legitimate shutdown corner in Sauce Gardner was huge. The other side is a question mark along with safety, although Jordan Whitehead could be a solid replacement for Marcus Maye, who went to New Orleans. With improved health, the pass rush should be better. Losing Carl Lawson to an Achilles injury in the preseason was huge last year. New York also moved up to get FSU defensive end Jermaine Johnson II at the end of Round 1 this year. There should be improvement, although it'll still only move to a middle-of-the-road unit at its best.

Schedule Notes: We'll see how far this team has come in the first nine weeks as they get the Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Patriots, and Bills on the schedule. Things get a little lighter after the bye week, but there are road trips to Minnesota and three division rivals ahead.

Prediction: Lean to the over here, as I see six wins. 

Related: New York Jets Depth Chart

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.