10 X-Factors for TCU and Georgia in the CFB Playoff National Championship
TCU and Georgia are set to square off Monday night in Inglewood, California, with the CFB Playoff National Championship at stake. There is no shortage of storylines and interesting matchups to watch in this game, as both teams bring high-powered offenses and historical implications with a win in SoFi Stadium. With a victory, the Horned Frogs would be the most unlikely national champion of the BCS or CFB Playoff era. The Bulldogs need a victory to become the first program to go back-to-back since Alabama accomplished that feat in 2011-12.
Related: Complete Preview and Prediction for TCU vs. Georgia
While all eyes will be on Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett, TCU signal-caller Max Duggan, Bulldogs defensive lineman Jalen Carter, and a few of the other high-profile players, a couple of under-the-radar guys always break out with performances that could help decide the winner of the national championship. Which players could be an x-factor on Monday? Here are 10 players and factors to watch:
10 X-Factors for TCU and Georgia in the National Championship
Taye Barber/Derius Davis, WR, TCU
It's no secret Quentin Johnston (59 catches for 1,066 yards and six touchdowns) is the go-to receiver for TCU. Georgia will do all it can to limit Johnston's receptions and big plays on Monday night. Barber and Davis were quiet in the Fiesta Bowl (just four catches for 24 yards) but have combined for 73 receptions and 10 touchdown grabs overall this year. The Horned Frogs will need both to step up to take some of the pressure away from Johnston.
Related: 5 Reasons Why TCU Will Beat Georgia in the National Championship
Emari Demercado, RB, TCU
Kendre Miller left the Fiesta Bowl win over Michigan with a sprained MCL and is questionable to play on Monday night. Even if Miller is able to go, just how effective will he be? Demercado rushed for 622 yards and six touchdowns as Miller's backup this season, including 150 yards against the Wolverines. TCU will need Demercado to deliver some help on the ground.
Max Duggan's Mobility
TCU's offensive line more than held its own in the Fiesta Bowl victory over Michigan, but Georgia's front will present a different challenge on Monday night. Duggan's dual-threat ability (461 rushing yards) could help TCU keep drives alive with scrambles on third-and-long to convert into first downs or to evade the rush to make plays in the passing game.
Kenny McIntosh, RB, Georgia
Georgia doesn't have a 1,000-yard rusher this year, but that's a sign of the strength of the backfield and not an indication of an offensive weakness. McIntosh had an underrated all-around year and enters the title game with 779 yards and 10 scores on the ground. The Florida native also has 42 receptions for 505 yards and two touchdowns. After recording just five carries in the Peach Bowl, McIntosh should be more involved in the ground attack while also sharing time with Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards on Monday night.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Georgia
A high-ankle sprain limited Mitchell for most of the '22 season, but he started in the Peach Bowl to flash the form that most believed would make him one of Georgia's top receivers. The sophomore grabbed three passes for 43 yards and a touchdown, which boosted his total to eight receptions for 112 yards and two scores for the year. The Ohio State game allowed Mitchell to knock off the rust. Look for Mitchell to be even more involved on Monday night.
Related: 5 Reasons Why Georgia Will Beat TCU for the National Championship
Damonic Williams, NT, TCU
TCU's defense is loaded with veterans and upperclassmen, but Williams has been a stalwart on the interior of the line all season with 14 starts as a true freshman at nose tackle. The California native doesn't put up huge numbers at the point of attack (27 tackles) and isn't needed to do so in this scheme. He's also graded out as a solid rush defender by PFF and will need to hold up again on Monday night for TCU to keep Georgia's ground game in check.
And a few in-game x-factors factors to watch:
Third Downs
Both teams would prefer to stay out of third-and-long situations but what happens on this down is huge for the outcome on Monday night. Georgia doesn't have to worry about third down often (169 opportunities this year) but converts them at a 49.7 rate (eighth nationally). The Horned Frogs convert third-down attempts at a 41.1 rate. However, Duggan's completion percentage drops to 50 percent on third-down attempts of seven-to-nine yards to go. If the Bulldogs don't give up big plays and TCU isn't staying on schedule (third and manageable), the path to an upset narrows for Dykes' team.
Red-Zone Scoring
It seems minor, but which team will score touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone? If both offenses move the ball as they have all year, trading yards for stops in the red zone could loom large. Georgia leads the nation in scoring percentage in the red zone (97.4), while TCU checks in at No. 68 (83.3). But when it comes to converting trips in the red zone into touchdowns, the two teams are relatively similar with the Horned Frogs at 68.3 percent and the Bulldogs at 67.5.
Related: 10 Stats You Need to Know for the College Football Playoff National Championship
Which Team Hits Big Plays?
Although the knock on Georgia's offense has been a lack of big plays all year, coordinator Todd Monken's group has thrived at hitting chunks of yardage. The Bulldogs rank fifth nationally in plays of 10-plus yards (245) and sixth in plays of 20-plus yards (88). TCU's numbers are solid in the chunk gains like Georgia, but Dykes' team ranks second nationally in plays of 30-plus yards (48) and first in gains of 50-plus (21).
Turnovers
This one is pretty simple: Whichever team wins the turnover battle is likely to win on Monday night. And if you need a refresher on just how valuable a couple of takeaways could be, keep in mind the Fiesta Bowl when TCU picked off two passes and returned them for scores. Neither team gives the ball away much (just 30 combined giveaways), but the Horned Frogs are plus-nine in turnover margin compared to minus-one for the Bulldogs. TCU needs a couple of breaks to win. A takeaway or score on defense would help boost Horned Frogs' path to an upset.
